Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Overseas Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)

S1-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)

I believe the three-year-old colts in Japan this season, are a ‘vintage crop’ and reckon all five horses I pick here are potential champions.

I believe that the most impressive performance displayed by a current three-year-old colt, was in the G3 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, which took place at Tokyo Racecourse last autumn, and was won by SATONO CROWN. The MARJU colt, ridden by Ryan Moore, was settled at the rear of the 13 runners’ field, and was still 10th behind a pack of horses with 200m to go. Then, Ryan Moore guided SATONO CROWN into narrow gap between horses, and accelerated like a Formula One car, to win by a neck. For many racegoers, including myself, it looked SATONO CROWN used teleportation magic!

SATONO CROWN was subsequently only sixth in the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) last time out, but had excuses as he was interfered by DURAMENTE at 600m pole, and was an unlucky loser. He has won two races from two starts at Tokyo Racecourse, and his sire MARJU, who stood at Derrinstown Stud in Ireland, has had a few runners in Japan contests, notably INDIGENOUS. This Hong Kong trained horse finished second in the G1 Japan Cup over 2,400m at Tokyo. I believe the course and distance of the Japanese Derby is the best stage for SATONO CROWN, and he has to be my first pick.

The performance of DURAMENTE, when he won the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), was also very impressive and I believe he is capable of completing the Guineas and Derby double.>What I am worried about him is his temperament. He is still immature of his mentality, and I’m afraid he may get too excited in the parade before the race, and in front of more than 100,000 racing fans.DURAMENTE, is by KING KAMEHAMEHA, who was beaten twice in his career and both were in Tokyo Racecourse. Therefore, I cannot evaluate him better than SATONO CROWN.

REAL STEEL by DEEP IMPACT, ran well in the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) at Nakayama, and I think he hit the front too soon. If Yuichi Fukunaga could have waited for a few moments longer at the top of stretch, it could have been a close contest between him and DURAMENTE. I believe Fukunaga will have to ride more patiently at Tokyo on Sunday, which has a longer homestretch than Nakayama.

REVE MISTRAL by KING KAMEHAMEHA was the winner of the G2 Aoba Sho, which is one of the prep races over the same track and trip as the Derby. After he won his maiden at Kyoto in January, which was his third start, he has improved significantly race by race. While he does not have a quick turn of foot, he has more stamina than any horses in the Derby field, and his tenacious effort down the homestretch should give him a spot in the first four.

If the Derby is a slowly-run race this year, I think MUSEE SULTAN by KING KAMEHAMEHA - has the quickest turn of acceleration in the field, could prove very dangerous.

SELECTIONS: 11. SATONO CROWN, 14. DURAMENTE, 13. REAL STEEL, 7. REVE MISTRAL & 15. MUSEE SULTAN

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.