 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l’Opera (S1-2) & Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (S1-3) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-2 Prix de l’Opera
Although the G1 Prix de l’Opera, run over 2,000m, is a hugely prestigious race, its recent roll of honour isn’t as strong as you might expect. A reason for that is that fillies and mares have an excellent recent record in the more prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, so that’s where the very best of the female generation usually run.
Interestingly, in 41 editions of this race, 30 have been won by three-year-olds and that age group represent the majority of Sunday’s field.
Freddy Head won this race for the first time 12 months ago with WE ARE – who is back to defend her crown – but it’s his other runner that is of more interest this time.
QUEEN’S JEWEL looked like a superstar when comfortably winning the G1 Prix Saint-Alary over course and distance back in May. On the back of that she was made a short-priced favourite for the G1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks), but put in a lacklustre display.
She’s been given a break since then and her trainer is an absolute master with these fillies. We have to forgive QUEEN’S JEWEL that last run, but she gave the impression prior to Chantilly that she was top class and she is fancied to bounce back.
WE ARE has been disappointing since her success last year, although she was second to TREVE two starts back at Saint-Cloud. She is attempting to become only the second dual winner of this race – ATHYKA, trained by Freddy Head’s sister, Criquette, won it in 1988 and 1989.
Hugo Palmer is an up and coming trainer and his COVERT LOVE has had a fantastic season. Winning a lowly maiden at the Polytrack Chelmsford City back in May, she then powered up the ratings culminating in a gutsy win in the G1 Irish Oaks in July.
She then looked like she was going to follow up in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks the following month, only for PLEASCACH to get up near the line to deny her. COVERT LOVE is certainly respected in this company, although the drop back from 2,400m to 2,000m might not be ideal.
John Gosden will be hoping for a memorable day in Paris and his duo JAZZI TOP and STAR OF SEVILLE have both won Group races in France this season. JAZZI TOP won well at Deauville last time, but it’s STAR OF SEVILLE that might just be best of the pair.
She won the G1 Prix de Diane under a clever ride from Frankie Dettori and she clearly didn’t handle the track at Goodwood in the Nassau Stakes last time.
The French style of racing may just suit her and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her take a hand in the finish.
SELECTIONS:12. QUEEN’S JEWEL, 4. WE ARE, 7. COVERT LOVE & 6. STAR OF SEVILLE
S1-3 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
TREVE aims to become the first horse in the 95 year history of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to win Longchamp’s historic G1 2,400m prize more than twice.
The five-year-old daughter of MOTIVATOR became the first since TANTIEME (1951) to land back-to-back runnings of Europe’s most prestigious prize 12 months ago and is hot favourite to make it three wins in a row on Sunday.
She has been at her brilliant best so far this campaign barely breaking into a sweat in all three starts to date. It was hard not to be impressed by her effortless G2 reappearance win back in May and she followed that up with an equally dominant display in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in June.
However, the most taking performance of the three was her six length demolition of her rivals in the G1 Prix Vermeille on very soft ground last month. Very rarely do you see a horse win a G1 anywhere in the world with such ease and, even though the opposition may not have been the strongest, the way she travelled and quickened demonstrated that she may now be in the form of her life.
If there was one slight concern it would be the drying ground at Longchamp, as the worst performance of her life came at Ascot on fast ground 16 months ago. That said, she wasn’t right that day and it was good ground when she recorded a facile victory here last year. I’m sure the ground won’t be any faster come race time.
Those looking to oppose the Al Shaqab-owned wonder mare will be putting their faith in the quality of this year’s three-year-old crop headed by GOLDEN HORN and NEW BAY.
The former has only tasted defeat once in his six race career to date that includes a win in the G1 Derby Stakes and two others at G1 level. That came on an unsuitably soft surface and the fact that Paris has been bathed in glorious sunshine all week has persuaded connections to take up the challenge.
As for NEW BAY, his only defeat came in the French 2000 Guineas over an inadequate 1,600m and he has been impressive since being stepped up to 2,000m and beyond. Like TREVE, he is another who wouldn’t want the ground to ride too quick.
NEW BAY is trained by Andre Fabre who is remarkably looking to win the race for a record eighth time. Interestingly, six of those seven wins to date have come with a three-year-old so the colt is certainly in the right hands.
Fabre also saddles last season’s runner-up FLINTSHIRE who looks the value alternative to the favourite on the back of the most impressive performance of his life in Saratoga’s G1 Sword Dancer Stakes last time.
Last year’s G1 Hong Kong Vase winner relished the fast ground and quickened away to a comfortable 2-1/2 lengths victory. He had previously got to within 1-1/4 lengths of TREVE at Saint-Cloud and may well chase her home for the third.
Aidan O’Brien saddles FOUND in his attempt to land the Arc for a second time. She was impressive when winning the G1 1,600m Prix Marcel Boussac as a two-year-old last season so the track and good ground hold no fears.
She also gets a handy weight concession being a three-year-old filly, but this will be her first try at 2,400m and there have to be doubts over whether she will stay.
FREE EAGLE is another Irish raider not guaranteed to stay the trip, but has the potential to get involved if lasting out, while last year’s fifth DOLNIYA isn’t totally dismissed if returning to the form that saw her comfortably beat FLINTSHIRE in Dubai last March.
SELECTIONS: 9. TREVE, 1. FLINTSHIRE, 16. GOLDEN HORN & 13. NEW BAY
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