 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for British Champions Day (S1-4 to S1-8) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-4 British Champions Sprint Stakes
Even though the statisticians will be quick to point out that no three-year-old has tasted success in the four renewals of the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes run to date, the generation is responsible for the first four in the betting. On closer inspection, only 13 three-year-olds have lined up since the race was first run back in 2011 and that includes only one 12 months ago and two back in 2013. Both of those races were run on soft ground (it was heavy, soft in places last year) which would have influenced the bulk of trainers not to run their young horses. With the weather set fair at Ascot, there are no such issues this year with very a real possibility of good ground on the straight course. Conditions were similar for the inaugural running of this race four years ago and three-year-olds filled four of the first six places.
Market leader MUHAARAR seemingly failed to stay the 1,600m trip of the G1 French 2000 Guineas back in May, but bounced back emphatically when reverting to sprinting in the G1 1,200m Commonwealth Cup over course and distance at Royal Ascot in June. Charles Hills’ son of OASIS DREAM beat a star-studded field of three-year-olds with ease and had 3¾ lengths to spare over LIMATO. He followed that breath-taking performance by landing the G1 July Cup (also over 1,200m) at Newmarket the following month and made it three G1s on the bounce when winning the Prix Maurice de Gheest over 1,300m last time. There is little doubt that he brings the best form to the table, and the more the ground continues to dry the better his chances. Many see his two month break from racing as a positive, but I’m just a little concerned that he has had plenty of hard races already this campaign for one so young.
TWILIGHT SON is the only horse on display at Ascot this weekend with a perfect 100% record having won all five career-starts to date. Henry Candy’s colt has stepped up with each run this season having begun the campaign winning two handicaps and then landing the G1 Sprint Cup over 1,200m at Haydock on his latest outing last month. Unlike plenty of other runners in the field, TWILIGHT SON has no concerns over the ground having shown he can handle a variety of different surfaces. Regular pilot Fergus Sweeney has been replaced by the outstanding Ryan Moore which certainly isn’t a negative either.
STRATH BURN finished a short head behind TWILIGHT SON in the G1 Sprint Cup last time and he is another improving dramatically with every run. His trainer Charles Hills also saddles MUHAARAR but was making positive noises about this one’s chances at the press conference earlier in the week.
THE TIN MAN won a moderate looking handicap over course and distance in a jaw-dropping manner last time and can go well. The fact that his shrewd connections supplemented him into this race having previously withdrawn him from it is a tip in its own right. Trainer James Fanshawe saddled the first ever winner of this prize, so knows what it takes to win it.
Previous winners MAAREK and GORDON LORD BYRON both would have appreciated more rain and at eight and seven-year-old respectively, don’t look the force of old.
DANZENO bounced back from a poor showing at Haydock with a facile victory in a small race last time and the fact that he has gone well at Ascot before, and has Frankie Dettori in the saddle, will ensure that he is supported.
Singapore-raider EMPEROR MAX has reportedly settled in well, but has to step up from what he has achieved at home in the biggest test of his life to date.
SELECTIONS: 18. TWILIGHT SON, 15. MUHAARAR, 16. STRATH BURN & 17. THE TIN MAN
S1-5 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
It is important to remember that there have been some expensive disappointments in this G1 2,400m contest over the last four years. SEAL OF APPROVAL was sent off favourite 12 months ago but could only finish fifth, whilst Oaks winner TALENT could only finish third a year earlier when a well-fancied market leader. There are a number of important factors to consider with the most crucial being that the race falls late on in what has already been a pretty hard season for some of these fillies and mares. Many of the leading protagonists have already had at least six races so far this campaign and, in the majority of cases, this challenge comes as an afterthought. Interestingly, three of the last four winners of this prize lined up on the day relatively fresh with only the three runs under their belt, whilst the inaugural winner DANCING RAIN had only had four runs that season.
Now, I’ve never been one for purely basing selections on statistics, but I’d be nervous about siding with St. Leger Stakes winner SIMPLE VERSE as she has been on the go since February and will be having her eighth run of the season. The formbook gives her a leading chance, but there has to be a worry that she may be losing her coat and condition now that the winter is closing in.
Favourite COVERT LOVE has progressed dramatically throughout the campaign and landed the G1 Prix de l’Opera over 2,000m at Longchamp last time. That was her second G1 win of the season having previously landed the G1 Irish Oaks over this 2,400m trip at the Curragh back in July. Her trainer Hugo Palmer says that she has come out of her Paris exertions extremely well and that’s the reason they have opted to race her again one more time. There is a very good chance that this may be one race too many, but whatever she lacks in condition, she makes up for in heart and determination. The only thing she wouldn’t want is any rain as the going description must have the word ‘good’ in it for her to take her chance.
French raiders CANDARLIYA and SEA CALISI both warrant plenty of respect even though they too have had busy campaigns. The former won the G2 Prix de Royallieu over 2,500m last time and stamina is her forte. Her trainer is a master at plundering decent prizes in the UK and I’m prepared to take a chance on the fact that this race may have been on the radar for some time. As for SEA CALISI, she is another sure to relish the trip and arrives here on the back of a little break since finishing behind TREVE and CANDARLIYA in the G1 Prix Vermeille. She looks sure to play a hand in the finish, but may struggle to reverse previous form with both CANDARLIYA and COVERT LOVE.
JOURNEY has improved beyond all recognition in recent starts and routed a decent looking field over this 2,400m trip at Newmarket last time. She looks to be peaking at the right time and can go well under a positive ride from Frankie Dettori.
Of those more lightly-raced this campaign, TAPESTRY cannot be easily dismissed from the all-powerful Ballydoyle operation. However, she disappointed last time and hasn’t looked the same filly we saw beat TAGHROODA at York last year.
More interesting at a much bigger price is the Godolphin-trained BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE who got bogged down in the mud behind TREVE, CANDARLIYA and SEA CALISI in the G1 Prix Vermeille. She had previously looked really smart when pulverising inferior opposition at Windsor and comes here fresh have only raced four times this season.
SELECTIONS: 7. CANDARLIYA, 5. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE, 9. JOURNEY & 8. COVERT LOVE
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Connections of the hugely talented GLENEAGLES will make a last minute decision on whether the going has dried out sufficiently to allow the four-time G1 winner to take his chance in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1,600m. The son of GALILEO is unbeaten in all three starts so far this season, including both the G1 English and Irish 2000 Guineas over 1,600m, as well as the G1 St. James’s Palace Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot back in June. However, since that latest win he has been declared a last-minute non-runner on a handful of occasions due to unsuitable going and trainer Aidan O’Brien is once again on weather watch. Apparently they are avoiding any going description that contains the word ‘soft’ as it blunts the horse’s natural speed and will walk the course closer to the race before committing him. They plan to travel the horse to America at the end of the month for the Breeders’ Cup Classic over 2,000m, so it would be no surprise if he is withdrawn once again.
That said, with the weather set fair at Ascot, and the fact that the straight course dries much faster than the round course, there is every chance the ground could ride good and we get to see the mouth-watering clash between GLENEAGLES and favourite SOLOW. If that clash does materialise, I must confess that I’m keen to side with O’Brien’s slightly fresher three-year-old in receipt of weight. The master of Ballydoyle has his string in unbelievably rude health and GLENEAGLES may just have too much speed.
Admittedly, French-raider SOLOW has been mightily impressive since winning the G1 Dubai Turf over 1,800m at Meydan back in March, landing three more G1 prizes in succession including the Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot over today’s distance. His latest win at Glorious Goodwood in July was his eighth in succession and arguably his least impressive as he was made to work extremely hard to fend off the late challenge of AROD. However, trainer Freddy Head has had this engagement as the plan for him since then and has given him a two month break to freshen him up.
KODI BEAR has been given plenty of time to mature as a three-year-old by trainer Clive Cox and only reappeared back in June. He seems to be making up for lost time, though, and it was hard not to have your head turned by his performances at both Salisbury and Goodwood back in August. Unlike GLENEAGLES, connections don’t want the ground to dry out too much as he seems at his most effective with some give underfoot and he is bound to run well.
Andre Fabre’s TERRITORIES had KODI BEAR behind him when winning the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,600m back in July, having previously finished runner-up to GLENEAGLES in the G1 English 2000 Guineas over 1,600m in May. He was bogged down in the mud at Deauville when finishing runner-up in the G1 Jacques le Marois over 1,600m and will run much better back on a sounder surface.
SELECTIONS: 6. GLENEAGLES, 2. SOLOW, 9. TERRITORIES & 8. KODI BEAR
S1-7 Champion Stakes
The highlight of British Champions Day at Ascot is the Champion Stakes, a G1 run over 2,000m, which has been won by some top class horses over the years. In 2012, FRANKEL capped an astonishing career to take this race before retiring to stud with a record of 14 victories and no defeats.
There is nothing with as much talent in this year’s field, but the one with the most potential is surely JACK HOBBS who aims to give champion trainer elect John Gosden another huge winner. This son of HALLING has won four of his six career starts and the only two defeats have come against stablemate GOLDEN HORN in the G2 Dante Stakes at York and the G1 Derby Stakes. Godolphin bought him prior to Epsom and at one stage up the home straight he looked like having too much for GOLDEN HORN, before Frankie Dettori came sweeping past. JACK HOBBS then brushed aside his rivals in the G1 Irish Derby and last month ran away with a G3 on the pollytrack at Kempton. If the ground had been soft at Longchamp, he would probably have gone for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe instead of his stablemate, but connections opted for this race and he will be very hard to beat. Between them, GOLDEN HORN and JACK HOBBS have dominated the big middle distance races all summer, whilst the ground at Ascot should be just about perfect for Gosden’s runner.
The biggest threat undoubtedly comes from Ballydoyle as FOUND has proven this season that she is a G1 filly. She had a nightmare passage in the Arc last time and that run is best forgiven. However, prior to that she was only a length behind GOLDEN HORN in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes. Although she’s only won three of her nine starts, she’s been very consistent and this distance of 2,000m on a slightly soft surface is perfect for her.
Andre Fabre has won the Arc a record seven times, but he’s only landed this prize twice – the last being in 1994 – so it’s clear where his preference lies. However, you always have to respect any horse that the master trainer sends over here and VADAMOS is certainly an intriguing contender. He’s been a comfortable winner of his last two starts, although they’ve been quite weak affairs and this is a huge step up in class. Fabre has produced wonders in the past but, while I expect VADAMOS to run well, his form is nowhere near as strong as that of JACK HOBBS or FOUND.
THE CORSICAN landed the G3 Arc Trial Stakes at Newbury last time and he wasn’t disgraced when fourth in the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over course and distance at the Royal meeting. He has a bit to find on the formbook, but clearly has a chance of hitting the frame.
If there is any more rain, Godolphin’s second string RACING HISTORY would come into it as he was impressive at Windsor in a G3 last time. His full brother FARHH won the Champion Stakes two years ago so he has the right pedigree, but the worry is that he may not have enough experience for such a top race at this stage of his career.
One horse I could see running well at a huge price is Ralph Beckett’s AIR PILOT. Soft ground is perfect for him, so any rain would be a plus, and he has run well on all three starts this season.
SELECTIONS: 9. JACK HOBBS, 13. FOUND, 7. VADAMOS & 5. THE CORSICAN
S1-8 Balmoral Handicap
This is only the second ever running of this 1,600m handicap over Ascot’s straight mile, and with a huge purse on offer it has unsurprisingly attracted a fiercely competitive looking field. Unlike the 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup, the equivalent race at Ascot’s Royal meeting, the field size has been capped at 20.
Irish raider SACRIFICIAL went into many notebooks after a cracking run in the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot back in June when finishing a close-up third to Aidan O’Brien’s WAR ENVOY. Gerard Lyons’ three-year-old did best of those drawn high that day and plenty who finished behind him have been out and won since. SACRIFICIAL himself followed that Ascot run with a comfortable success back home in Ireland at Galway the following month and he was then stepped up to Listed class on his latest assignment at Killarney in August. He was only beaten a length back in third that day, so warrants full respect dropped back down in class this Saturday from a handicap mark that would appear to be workable.
Fellow market leader BUCKSTAY needed every yard of Ascot’s 1,400m to win a valuable handicap here last time and should run well, although another rise from the handicapper just makes things a little tougher. It was only a short head that separated him and the re-opposing GABRIEL’S LAD and the slight swing at the weights could easily see that form reversed. However, it is worth considering that this is the first time in 25 career starts to date that GABRIEL’S LAD has stepped up from 1,400m and is therefore not guaranteed to stay.
GM HOPKINS won the Royal Hunt Cup here back in June and has run alright from his higher mark in three subsequent runs since. The handicapper has kept him on the same mark again and he is another bound to run his usual solid race for an in-form yard.
Last year’s winner BRONZE ANGEL doesn’t line-up in the same form as 12 months ago having finished well down the field in the Newmarket. He has certainly bounced back from disappointing performances in the past, but has never won from this high a mark before and is a risky proposition.
Top weight CHIL THE KITE has been in decent form of late, pouncing late to land a nice handicap at York in August and followed that with a fair run over an unsuitable 2,000m last time. He actually ran extremely well in this contest 12 months ago from a slightly lower mark on unsuitably heavy ground and a bold show is expected at a decent price.
One horse that really catches the eye at the foot of the weights is the Godolphin-trained MUSADDAS who ran well in the Newmarket over 1,800m on his latest start. He’s looked held by the handicapper on recent evidence, but the combination of being dropped and the booking of the hugely talented Edward Greatrex who takes off some more weight makes him a real contender.
Finally, EMPIRE STORM is another to throw into the mix. Michael Attwater’s eight-year-old was third in this race last year and he has excellent form on this straight course.He is a measure of consistency and has finished in the first three in his last three runs at Ascot, all in very competitive handicaps.
SELECTIONS: 12. SACRIFICIAL, 20. MUSADDAS, 1. CHIL THE KITE & 7. EMPIRE STORM
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