 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Coolmore Stud Stakes
Boom Sydney colt EXOSPHERE has created a huge impression in his short career and has won all three starts this preparation. Tends to settle towards the rear and has the ability to easily move into the race then unleash a devastating sprint.
Promising Chris Waller galloper COUNTERATTACK brings good form from Sydney and should continue to improve. Last start at Randwick he settled well back then ran on powerfully to win.
MOGADOR is a lightly raced Godolphin horse showing enormous potential. Last start he chased home KEEN ARRAY in a Listed race at Caulfield, but I suspect he has more scope for improvement.
Consistent David Hayes and Tom Dabernig-trained KEEN ARRAY looks like he will enjoy the straight track. Although unlikely to beat EXOSPHERE, he must be respected.
READY FOR VICTORY has been freshened since a solid third in the G1 Caulfield Guineas over 1,600m. He has form down the straight, so expect he will be prominent.
SELECTIONS: 1. EXOSPHERE, 6. COUNTERATTACK, 10. MOGADOR, 4. KEEN ARRAY & 2. READY FOR VICTORY
S1-2 Lexus Stakes
Promising James Cummings-trained stayer RULING DYNASTY is lightly raced and has always shown staying ability. Does tend to take a while to ‘wind up’, but really finds the line. Came of age at Randwick last start against some seasoned performers, proving too strong late in the race.
Godolphin's ELHAAME is having his first Australian start but must be respected. Would appreciate softer ground but has excellent recent form over the right type of distances to measure up here.
Gai Waterhouse-trained EXCESS KNOWLEDGE will need a good ride by Dwayne Dunn from his barrier 9 but is a consistent horse. A last start second to AMRALAH is a great form reference.
HAVANA COOLER is another Godolphin import that keeps improving. Ran on well from midfield in the G1 The Metropolitan last time out and might benefit from a better draw here.
Expect another Waterhouse-trained runner, BOHEMIAN LILY, to lead and be hard to catch with Jim Cassidy aboard
SELECTIONS: 7. RULING DYNASTY, 4. ELHAAME, 3. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, 6. HAVANA COOLER & 8. BOHEMIAN LILY
S1-3 Mackinnon Stakes
Godolphin runner, CONTRIBUTER was dominant in the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival but has been disappointing this time in. He may have taken time to reach peak fitness and must be considered, especially if he gets some give in the track.
Gun jockey Craig Williams will need luck going forward from his wide draw on STRATUM STAR but must be considered a strong chance. Handled a step up to 2,000m well last start with a G3 win, albeit with an easy run, and in great form this preparation.
HAPPY TRAILS is getting older but won this race last year and always seems to back up well out of the G1 Cox Plate. Should be closer in the run and could easily figure in the finish.
Having his first start in Australia is MAGIC ARTIST, an import that has been close at G1 level at four of his past five starts. German trainer Andreas Wohler has had success at setting horses for races here in the past.
SELECTIONS:5. CONTRIBUTER, 13. STRATUM STAR, 2. HAPPY TRAILS & 11. MAGIC ARTIST
TARZINO is clearly the one to beat and a worthy favourite. Rounded off preparation last Saturday with a third over 2,040m at Moonee Valley where he ran on very strongly out wide against an on-pace bias.
From western Australia and the mystery horse in the race is KIA ORA KOUTOU. From the highly regarded stable of Adam Durrant, he is unbeaten in his home state in four starts and has won over 2,200m.
EXTRA CHOICE was an impressive winner last start in the Geelong Classic over 2,200m, a race that has been a good guide in the past. The addition of blinkers seems to make a significant difference and the David Hayes and Tom Dabernig stable is flying.
LIZARD ISLAND will be up on the pace and has sound credentials for this. He could get an easy run up front, a big advantage considering most of his rivals settle back in the field. A must for all bet types.
A better draw could have GET THE PICTURE figure at good odds. He has stormed back from the rear of the field at his last few and could be a bit closer in the run.
SELECTIONS: 7. TARZINO, 3. KIA ORA KOUTOU, 6. EXTRA CHOICE, 1. LIZARD ISLAND & 8. GET THE PICTURE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 7. TARZINO
Selections – 3. KIA ORA KOUTOU, 6. EXTRA CHOICE, 1. LIZARD ISLAND & 8. GET THE PICTURE
S1-5: Banker – 15. STAY WITH ME
Selections – 1. ROYAL DESCENT, 5. POLITENESS, 3. MAY'S DREAM & 13. SLIGHTLY SWEET
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 7. TARZINO, 3. KIA ORA KOUTOU & 6. EXTRA CHOICE
S1-5: Multiple – 15. STAY WITH ME, 1. ROYAL DESCENT & 5. POLITENESS
S1-6: Multiple – 6. DELECTATION, 5. UNDER THE LOUVRE & 3. DOTHRAKI
S1-5 Myer Classic
Classy three-year-old filly STAY WITH ME is the one to beat, taking on the older mares here following her brilliant win in the G1 Caulfield Thousand Guineas over 1,600m. Judging by her appearance in the parade ring at her last few starts, she may be peaking for this event.
ROYAL DESCENT drops in class, taking on her own sex after being eased out of the G1 Caulfield Cup following a tough early run. As long as she has recovered her quality at weight-for-age makes her competitive.
Distance is a question mark for sprinting mare POLITENESS, but her trainer Robert Smerdon is one of the best and has won over 1,500m. Tends to settle back then unleash a strong sprint.
Consistent type MAY'S DREAM hasn't won for more than 18-months but is racing well. Has been looking super in the parade ring and may be best ridden quietly and allowed to finish off.
SLIGHTLY SWEET is suited by a step up in trip after she stormed home for fourth along the rail at Caulfield.
SELECTIONS: 15. STAY WITH ME, 1. ROYAL DESCENT, 5. POLITENESS, 3. MAY'S DREAM & 13. SLIGHTLY SWEET
S1-6 Linlithgow Stakes
Talented Sydney trained galloper DELECTATION has good form down the straight 1,200m course. Raced very well in the Coolmore Stud Stakes last year, and his most recent run in Sydney was an ideal form guide for this.
A big weight is a concern for UNDER THE LOUVRE but the consistent sprinter is flying after a fast-finishing second last start in a G3 event at Caulfield. He will again settle near the rear but likely to be powering home.
From the Peter and Paul Snowden stable, DOTHRAKI must be respected. Returned from a break with a strong win first-up, he should be even better second-up.
ECLAIR CHOICE is a better 1,000m horse but is fit and in form so should be in this race for a long way.
KAEPERNICK is lightly raced and has shown plenty of ability. He gets in with the light weight and in his last two starts he has produced a strong win and an encouraging third behind FAST 'N' ROCKING in a Listed race at Caulfield.
SELECTIONS: 6. DELECTATION, 5. UNDER THE LOUVRE, 3. DOTHRAKI, 9. ECLAIR CHOICE & 14. KAEPERNICK
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