 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Emirates Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Queen’s Cup (Queen Elizabeth Stakes)
European visitor SECRET NUMBER is the fresh horse on the scene and it would be no surprise to see him win. Distance looks perfect, with four wins from eleven starts ranging from 1,600m to 2,460m.
Veteran stayer DANDINO is racing in great form, Flemington suits perfectly and the stable is in great form as well. This distance is not a problem and he will be hard to beat.
BONFIRE is a consistent stayer coming via the G3 Geelong Cup. Blinkers are back on so he should go forward and may be hard to get past.
LIKE A CAROUSEL caught the eye in the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup where he made significant late ground against the bias, with the runner-up PRINCE OF PENZANCE from that race going on to win the G1 Melbourne Cup. Track and distance of this race suits for him too.
BEATEN UP has yet to run a bad race this time in and a lower barrier should allow him to be closer in the run.
SELECTIONS: 3. SECRET NUMBER, 2. DANDINO, 4. BONFIRE, 7. LIKE A CAROUSEL & 1. BEATEN UP
S1-2 Hilton Hotels & Resorts Stakes (VRC Springtime S.)
Impressive colt NGARIMU created a big impression winning on debut at Seymour and looks the best bet here. Still very green, but has loads of talent.
KRACKEN has been racing without much luck and looks a great chance. Promising gelding might not get back as far this time and is very strong at the finish.
SECRET PROPHET is a lovely type of colt from the powerful Hawkes stable, he has an awkward barrier but will be hard to beat. He is lightly raced and shows promising, with an impressive winning last start in Sydney.
Consistent gelding DEMONSTRATE is finding it hard to breakthrough for a win. His latest third at Moonee Valley was good in a fast run race and he has to be included.
KRACKEN's stablemate PALENTINO should be included after showing good ability at both starts, and although still green he is promising.
SELECTIONS: 8. NGARIMU, 4. KRACKEN, 2. SECRET PROPHET, 1. DEMONSTRATE & 10. PALENTINO
S1-3 Antler Luggage Handicap
SETINUM finally finds an easier race! All his recent form has been in good quality races and he simply has been good enough. This class suits him better.
PETROLOGY has great ability but is inconsistent. Won at this carnival last year, so maybe this is his track and time of the year. He can win, but take on trust.
Consistent type HARADA BAY was hitting the line hard last start in the Sale Cup but barrier 15 is a challenge.
DEFIANT ANGEL comes off a good win when well backed last start and is opened to improvement.
SELECTIONS:4. SETINUM, 1. PETROLOGY, 8. HARADA BAY & 6. DEFIANT ANGEL
S1-4 Darley Classic (Victoria Racing Club Stakes)
Australia’s best sprinter CHAUTAUQUA is racing in devastating fashion and is the one to beat. Gets back in his races, so often needs luck, but can produce a big finish.
TERRAVISTA beat CHAUTAUQUA in this race last year and should have finished closer last start at Moonee Valley. He is a definite danger from barrier 1.
Top quality mare SRIKANDI is likely to lead and depending on track bias, she could be hard to beat and must be considered.
Evergreen galloper BUFFERING is consistent at the highest level races. May be ridden a little more quietly this time, and if so, sure to be competitive.
LUMOSTY loves the course and distance and should be steaming into the contest late.
SELECTIONS: 2. CHAUTAUQUA, 4. TERRAVISTA, 8. SRIKANDI, 1. BUFFERING & 10. LUMOSTY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 2. CHAUTAUQUA
Selections – 4. TERRAVISTA, 8. SRIKANDI, 1. BUFFERING & 10. LUMOSTY
S1-5: Banker – 4. BOW CREEK
Selections – 6. MAGIC ARTIST, 3. TURN ME LOOSE, 5. DISPOSITION & 11. POLITENESS
Godolphin’s galloper BOW CREEK ran a super race last start at Moonee Valley behind TURN ME LOOSE. His European form gives every indication that he is a top quality horse.
MAGIC ARTIST was unlucky at weight for age level last Saturday at G1 event when he got badly held up – no doubt he should have won!
TURN ME LOOSE is a bold Front Runner from the powerful Murray Baker stable and the track bias may determine his winning chances. If the track is favouring on-pace runners then he will be hard to beat.
Talented middle distance galloper DISPOSITION will be peaking for this and is sure to be competitive. He looked fantastic in the parade ring last Saturday and won accordingly.
Top class mare POLITENESS is racing in career best form and won against the track bias last Saturday.
SELECTIONS: 4. BOW CREEK, 6. MAGIC ARTIST, 3. TURN ME LOOSE, 5. DISPOSITION & 11. POLITENESS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 4. BOW CREEK, 6. MAGIC ARTIST & 3. TURN ME LOOSE
S1-6: Multiple – 7. BALLET SUITE, 1. LUCIA VALENTINA & 13. ZARZALI
S1-7: Multiple – 10. ULMANN, 2. MIRAGE & 5. JAVA
S1-6 Matriarch Stakes
Consistent stayer BALLET SUITE caught the eye last start at Moonee Valley and looks ready for a step up in trip. She looks well suited in what is not a high quality renewal of this race.
Top quality mare LUCIA VALENTINA is racing in possibly her easiest career race. The 131lbs is a concern, as is barrier 16, but I still feel she will be very hard to beat. And her last run in the G1 Caulfield Cup was very good.
James Cummings-trained ZARZALI warmed up for this with a solid win on Tuesday and is likely to be competitive from barrier 1.
Consistent mare UNGRATEFUL ELLEN has solid form, this track and distance suits and so does the class.
IMPERIAL LASS has form earlier in the year against BALLET SUITE and WINX, so is ideally suited here following two good wins.
SELECTIONS: 7. BALLET SUITE, 1. LUCIA VALENTINA, 13. ZARZALI, 9. UNGRATEFUL ELLEN & 12. IMPERIAL LASS
S1-7 Emirates Airline Handicap
Promising galloper ULMANN might be ready to show his best form. All three runs for this preparation have contained merit and could easily win without surprising.
Former boom galloper MIRAGE hasn't quite lived up to expectations but this is a very winnable race so must be considered.
JAVA is better suited at 1,400m and if the track is favouring front-runners he will give them something to chase.
RELDAS saves his best for Moonee Valley, but this race being drawn out wide might suit. Likely to settle back but can produce a big finish.
JAVA's stablemate MALAGUERRA notched a dominant win on Tuesday, he can lead or sit box-seat and will be hard to beat again.
SELECTIONS: 10. ULMANN, 2. MIRAGE, 5. JAVA, 3. RELDAS & 9. MALAGUERRA
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