Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Japan Cup

The field of the 35th running of Japan Cup includes four international runners, all of them are winners of premier races in their home nations. On the other hand, it looks like the team representing the host nation, does not have the depth as much as it has had in recent years.

Although foreign horses have never finished in first three since OUIJA BOARD - who finished third in 2006 - I think foreign horses should not be neglected this year, and we should examine which horses you should place your money. While the Japanese team does not have the depth, there are two Japanese-trained horses whom I believe stand out on Sunday.

My first choice is LOVELY DAY, who has won four consecutive races since June, including the G1 Takarazuka Kinen and the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn. Twelve months ago, he was just a Graded Stakes performer and won a Listed race. He has improved a lot through the current season, and is now the outstanding champion in the middle distance division in Japan. He has trained well since his Tenno Sho Autumn victory, and I am pretty sure that he will extend his winning streak to five on Sunday.

Another Japanese-trained horse whom I like is MIKKI QUEEN, winner of the G1 Yushun Himba and the G1 Shuka Sho, which is the second and third leg of Triple Tiara for three-year-old fillies respectively. Her earnings were not enough to get her into the field of the G1 Oka Sho, the first leg of the Triple Tiara. Unfortunately, she won the Listed race on the day before the G1 Oka Sho very easily. I think she may have completed the Triple Tiara, if she had been allowed to run the G1 Oka Sho. Although I don’t know yet if she is as good as GENTILDONNA, who won Japan Cup twice, I believe she is a better horse than DENIM AND RUBY, who was runner-up to GENTILDONNA in the Japan Cup in 2013. I consider MIKKI QUEEN has a good chance to finish in first two.

It has been an obvious tendency in recent years, that European turf runners prefer to participate in Hong Kong International Races rather than the Japan Cup, and I understand that trainer Ed Dunlop considered the Hong Kong Vase as the next start for TRIP TO PARIS. Dunlop, who has sent his horses to Japan and Hong Kong many times, knows racing in both countries very well, and I believe Dunlop has selected the Japan Cup, because he is quite sure that TRIP TO PARIS will run well in Tokyo. The ground conditions at Ascot, where he won the G1 Gold Cup, was good to firm, and I think he can handle the track well at Tokyo.

ERUPT was not beaten far by GOLDEN HORN, who is arguably the best middle distance horse in Europe this year, in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and official handicappers have assessed his performance in the Arc as a rating of 120, which is as high as LOVELY DAY. He was sired by DUBAWI, who has bred a lot of winners on firm going tracks all over the world, and his broodmare sire is CAERLEON, who sent out five G1 winners in Japan, and is recognized as one of the most suitable European stallions for racing in Japan. The pedigree suggests ERUPT can run a big race in Japan.

GOLD SHIP, winner of six G1s, is very good on his day, and I am sure he is capable of winning the Japan Cup. On the other hand, he gets upset in the starting gate sometimes. The Japan Cup starts in the middle of the homestretch, in front of an roaring audience, and nobody knows how he will behave before the start of the race.

SELECTIONS: 1. LOVELY DAY, 11. MIKKI QUEEN, 2. TRIP TO PARIS, 8. ERUPT & 12. GOLD SHIP

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