Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Champions Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Champions Cup

In my analysis for the G1 Japan Cup, I wrote the team of Japanese representatives did not have much depth. The picture is thoroughly different a week later. There are numerous good horses in the middle-distance dirt division in Japan at present, from proven older horses, to talented young horses. There are so many local talented runners in the field for the 16th running of the G1 Champions Cup on Sunday, that the choice is embarrassing.

After due consideration, I have selected NONKONO YUME, the rising star of the dirt division, as my first choice. NONKONO YUME has won four races in a row since May, including the G1 Japan Dirt Derby at Ohi in July. Far more impressive was his recent performance in the G3 Musashino Stakes at Tokyo in November. Although it was his first time competing against older horses, NONKONO YUME proved too strong for his rivals down the home stretch carrying 128lb. I anticipate that CORIN BERRY, winner of the G1 JBC Sprint, will set a strong pace, which should set up NONKONO YUME to use his brilliant turn of foot effectively. There is another important factor that NONKONO YUME will only carry 123lb, which is 5lb less than his last start. I understand the Champions Cup is a tough race for three-year-olds, but I believe NONKONO YUME has good chance to win, because I believe he is as good as KUROFUNE who won this race in 2001 by seven lengths, when he was three-year-old. 

HOKKO TARUMAE, seeking to complete back-to-back victories in the Champions Cup, is my second choice. HOKKO TARUMAE has added three more G1 Stakes wins to his tally in the last 12 months, and it is obvious he continues to be in top form. Although HOKKO TARUMAE was only third in the G1 JBC Classic at Ohi last month, it was his first start since June, and he needed the race to regain peak fitness.  

I think COPANO RICKEY, winner of five G1 Stakes, including the JBC Classic last time, has the same class as HOKKO TARUMAE. On the other hand, there is a negative factor regarding COPANO RICKEY. He is a horse who likes to lead from the off, but there is CORIN BERRY who also likes to dictate the tempo, as I mentioned earlier, and I think COPANO RICKEY cannot run his own race. 

SOUND TRUE, who won the G2 Nippon TV Hai in October, and finished second to COPANO RICKEY in the G1 JBC Classic, is consistent, and is my fourth choice.

I understand the all-weather track at Sha Tin, is very similar to dirt tracks in the US, and I believe GUN PIT, unbeaten in seven starts on the all-weather track at Sha Tin, has the class to win a Graded Stakes in the US. The dirt surface at Chukyo however, is different to the dirt surface at Sha Tin, and honestly speaking, I do not know if he will be able to handle the surface. If he can, I believe GUN PIT has chance to finish in the first five.

SELECTIONS: 1. NONKONO YUME, 13. HOKKO TARUMAE, 7. COPANO RICKEY, 2. SOUND TRUE & 14. GUN PIT

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