 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Blue Diamond Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Angus Armanasco Stakes
Quality filly MOSSIN' AROUND has ran second at her past three, and found a smart rival last start, but will be hard to beat here. May be better ridden a little bit quieter with blinkers off.
CATCH A FIRE has a tricky draw to deal with but should not be underestimated. Won easily at Moonee Valley last start, racing away on the turn and scored under a tight hold. It gives the impression that she will measure up.
Star filly PASADENA GIRL has form around the very best fillies last spring. She is trained on the track, and with good fresh form, she is sure to be storming home.
ALASKAN ROSE is a consistent, good quality filly sure to be fitter for her solid run last Saturday in strong company. She looked badly in need of the run on that occasion and moving forward she may need the blinkers. Sure to be competitive.
SELECTIONS: 4. MOSSIN’ AROUND, 8. CATCH A FIRE, 1. PASADENA GIRL & 6. ALASKAN ROSE
S1-2 Caulfield Autumn Classic
MAHUTA has become something of a cult hero as he aims for a seventh straight win. He is very fit and races up front so surely is the one to beat. He gives every indication that 1,800m will be ideal and this race is one of the weakest he has contested in some times.
Strong Godolphin-trained galloper TALLY has returned in great form. Both of his recent wins have been impressive, but a strong tempo would enhance his chance of winning.
FLYING LIGHT is fit in form and likely to race behind the speed, so has to be considered as a chance. Led and fought on strongly last start over 2,040m, so sure to issue a challenge at some stage.
CHARLEVOIX comes off a maiden win last start, but created a big impression. He is trained by astute horseman Michael Kent, so even if his rating says he is totally outclassed, the horse has plenty of promise and upside.
EXTRA CHOICE looked good in the parade ring at Caulfield last start, but didn't do much in that first-up run and should improve. This is not a strong race so he could sneak into the placings.
SELECTIONS: 1. MAHUTA, 8. TALLY, 2. FLYING LIGHT, 11. CHARLEVOIX & 4. EXTRA CHOICE
S1-3 Peter Young Stakes
High quality import BOW CREEK, from the powerful Godolphin stable looks the one to beat. He was unlucky last start at Caulfield when he was slowly away then severely checked when moving into the race.
Top class mare FENWAY caught the eye last start at Caulfield in the same race as BOW CREEK. She looked terrific in the parade ring and finished the race off beautifully. This race actually looks a little easier.
Star mare RISING ROMANCE looks suited here and is a definite chance. Needed the run first up on 13th February, yet finished off her race well. Sure to be fitter and this looks more suitable.
FAWKNER is a tried and true performer at this level, as is fellow veteran HAPPY TRAILS, and both will be fitter this time.
SELECTIONS: 8. BOW CREEK, 13. FENWAY, 12. RISING ROMANCE & 1. FAWKNER
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 8. BOW CREEK, 13. FENWAY, 12. RISING ROMANCE & 1. FAWKNER
S1-4: Multiple – 4. HUCKLEBUCK, 3. TURN ME LOOSE, 1. BOBAN & 10. SUAVITO
S1-4 Futurity Stakes
The G1 Orr Stakes two weeks ago is the best form reference here and HUCKLEBUCK will be fitter after his third there. He caught the eye when he resumed with that super performance from the outside barrier and his effort to finish close was outstanding. He is a proven performer at this level.
High quality New Zealander TURN ME LOOSE is likely to go forward and dare the opposition to run him down. Sure to be fitter for his first-up run two weeks ago and hard to beat here.
Evergreen galloper BOBAN had no luck from the wide barrier last start. He did look terrific in the parade ring though and ran accordingly. A more favourable barrier this time greatly enhances his chances.
Top class mare SUAVITO resumed from a spell with and had an excellent win in the G1 Orr Stakes two weeks ago, defeating all her main rivals here. However, she did have all the favours, while others were deemed unlucky. Too classy to dismiss but this race will be tougher.
SELECTIONS: 4. HUCKLEBUCK, 3. TURN ME LOOSE, 1. BOBAN & 10. SUAVITO
David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained VALLIANO created a big impression when winning a restricted race three weeks ago at this track. On that occasion he was a standout in the parade ring and raced accordingly. Sure to be strong at the end of the race.
FLYING ARTIE was an impressive winner last start at this track when he drew the outside barrier and raced was wide all the way, but still finished the race off powerfully. That performance gave every indication that the 1,200m of this race should suit. He is lovely and a relaxed type of contender, with champion jockey Damien Oliver on board.
FLYING ARTIE's stablemate EXTREME CHOICE is likely to look the winner at some stage. Showed blistering speed winning here earlier this month and was immediately installed as top pick for this race. He is certainly an exciting galloper, but not sure he is strong enough to hold off the late challengers.
Talented filly SAMARA DANCER burst into calculations with a highly impressive win two weeks back. Related to star G1 performer HUCKLEBUCK, so expect her to continue to progress to bigger and better things.
CONCEALER is a big, strong filly likely to finishing strongly. Both her starts have produced impressive outcomes – giving every indication that the 1,200m will be ideal. She was second to SAMARA DANCER last start, coming from last at the turn to catch the eye.
SELECTIONS: 2. VALLIANO, 3. FLYING ARTIE, 1. EXTREME CHOICE, 10. SAMARA DANCER & 11. CONCEALER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. VALLIANO, 3. FLYING ARTIE & 1. EXTREME CHOICE
S1-6: Multiple – 7. BOUNDING, 8. FELL SWOOP & 16. HEATHERLY
S1-7: Multiple – 10. AZKADELLIA, 4. CHOOSE & 3. TUSCAN SLING
S1-6 Oakleigh Plate
BOUNDING is a star mare with an exceptional record when fresh. She exploded for a super impressive win by her last time first-up at Caulfield. The powerful Snowden stable will have her on song for a big first-up effort here as well.
Talented Canberra-based galloper FELL SWOOP has been cleverly-placed in his short career to build an imposing record of eight wins from ten starts. Trainer Matthew Dale is astute and has ear-marked this race for some time. Some question marks on class, but record too good to ignore.
HEATHERLY burst into calculations with a devastating display at Caulfield two weeks ago. On that occasion she led easily and raced clear on the turn for an impressive win. Drawn well, but this race is significantly tougher and she is sure to get more pressure this time.
Highly talented three-year-old KEEN ARRAY creates plenty of interest. His fresh record is good, so must be respected.
This is a deep race, where KURO, HEADWATER and FAST 'N' ROCKING all should be considered.
SELECTIONS: 7. BOUNDING, 8. FELL SWOOP, 16. HEATHERLY & 18. KEEN ARRAY
S1-7 Mannerism Stakes
AZKADELLIA oozes class and will be aimed at bigger races than this. Likely to get back in the field, so that is a concern, but sure to be storming home and will be hard to beat.
Ultra consistent and high quality mare CHOOSE is sure to be competitive after she came up with a perfect gate. Usually races forward and has form good enough to win.
TUSCAN SLING is an underrated mare with a great winning record and a definite chance. Beat some of her rivals here a couple of weeks back, giving every indication that 1,400m might suit even more.
WAWAIL was a first-up fourth behind TUSCAN SLING and is likely to be fitter for that run. She has an excellent record at 1,400m. Likely to race forward, so hard to beat.
SELECTIONS: 10. AZKADELLIA, 4. CHOOSE, 3. TUSCAN SLING & 2. WAWAIL
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