 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Golden Slipper Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 The Sebring (Darby Munro Stakes)
On exposed recent form COUNTERATTACK is probably the class runner of the field in a race where weight scale makes assessment a challenge. The Chris Waller-trained sprinter was a late scratching last Saturday at Flemington when he dislodged the jockey going to the barriers. Barrier is a concern but previous form was in high quality races.
TAKEDOWN resumed with a solid second at Randwick two weeks ago where he settled close and finished off well. Ideally drawn with champion jockey Damien Oliver to ride.
Lightly-raced galloper FLIPPANT has assembled a good record in quality races. Set for this first-up run by the powerful Snowden stable and with Hugh Bowman to ride.
High quality Melbourne-trained runner SANTA ANA LANE returned from a break, and even though he looked in need of a run, was still able to win at Caulfield. Barrier 18 is a blow to chances, but this horse could just be starting to realise potential.
Highly promising type SOUTHERN LEGEND is the likely leader. He has won both starts this preparation and drawn to be handy again. He can produce a fast closing sectional, so has to be considered.
SELECTIONS: 2. COUNTERATTACK, 1. TAKEDOWN, 8. FLIPPANT, 3. SANTA ANA LANE & 12. SOUTHERN LEGEND
S1-2 Ranvet Stakes
CRITERION is the class galloper and is the proven weight for age performer of the field. His first-up run at Randwick on March was disappointing but it was at a totally unsuitable distance. Much better suited here at 2,000m, so a form reversal would not surprise.
CRITERION's under-rated stablemate and former Hong Kong-trained horse DIBAYANI has been in solid form this preparation with both runs behind champion mare WINX, so this race looks an easier assignment.
HAURAKI is a high quality galloper with similar recent form lines to DIBAYANI. His most recent run behind WINX at Randwick was a real eye-catcher. He settled at the rear and stormed home out wide for third so must be included here.
Top quality performer THE UNITED STATES comes into this race after very good runs this preparation for his respected stable. Not sure he is a horse up to weight for age races, but this is not a strong race.
European import STORM THE STARS ran satisfactorily at Randwick in his first Australian start and should improve here. He was placed in both the Epsom and Irish Derby in 2015, so a return to that form would make him competitive in coming contest.
SELECTIONS: 1. CRITERION, 3. DIBAYANI, 4. HAURAKI, 5. THE UNITED STATES & 7. STORM THE STARS
S1-3 George Ryder Stakes
From the New Zealand stable of astute trainer Murray Baker, TURN ME LOOSE has taken all before him so far in a short career. He is a genuine G1 performer and likes to dominate his races from on the pace. Judging by his appearance in the Parade Ring in Melbourne he is still to reach peak fitness.
Australia's best mare WINX continued her strong form with an easy win at Randwick on 27th February and is certainly the one to beat. However, she will have to get past a real up-and-coming star, TURN ME LOOSE, so the way the race will be run is crucial.
PRESS STATEMENT is arguably Australia's best three-year-old but he faces his biggest test here. Last start he was beaten by LE ROMAIN in somewhat controversial circumstances. He is likely to settle close behind TURN ME LOOSE and faces a big task to get past him and then hold off WINX.
Star Sydney mare FIRST SEAL returned in good form, winning first-up, then was good last start behind HOLLER at Randwick. The extra 200 metres is a bonus, but the rise in class is a significant challenge.
Highly-talented top-line performer KERMADEC returned in fine style with a solid third to HOLLER over 1,300m. This distance is much more suitable and he looks at least a place prospect.
SELECTIONS: 1. TURN ME LOOSE, 5. WINX, 8. PRESS STATEMENT, 6. FIRST SEAL & 2. KERMADEC
S1-4 Rosehill Guineas
Exciting three-year-old TARZINO won the Victoria Derby last year and has returned in dashing style. Having seen him in the parade ring before his most recent run, I can assure punters he looks fantastic. Likely to be ridden quietly and be storming home. Definitely the one to beat.
LE ROMAIN is arguably Sydney's most improved galloper. Prepared by an astute trainer Kris Lees, he defeated star three-year-old PRESS STATEMENT last start at Randwick. Relaxes well in his races and possesses a sharp sprint. Extra distance is a query, but must be respected on recent form.
Talented Sydney-trained galloper VANBRUGH caught the eye last start at Flemington when he ran on strongly along the rails. His form in Sydney last spring was excellent, so must be considered.
Top quality filly JAMEKA is having her third run back, so should be ready to improve. She is another that has returned in great order, but not at her peak yet. Barrier 14 is a negative but this track and distance suits perfectly.
Emerging stayer GOLD AMBITION ran on well last start in the Randwick Guineas and I am expecting that form to be good.
SELECTIONS: 1. TARZINO, 2. LE ROMAIN, 3. VANBRUGH, 14. JAMEKA & 6. GOLD AMBITION
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 1. TARZINO
Selections – 2. LE ROMAIN, 3. VANBRUGH, 14. JAMEKA & 6. GOLD AMBITION
S1-5: Banker – 1. EXTREME CHOICE
Selections – 8. GOOD STANDING, 2. FLYING ARTIE, 9. TELPERION & 4. KISS AND MAKE UP
Star Melbourne-trained colt EXTREME CHOICE is unbeaten in three starts. He won in Sydney at his first start, then won his next two in Melbourne. He has good tactical speed and an explosive sprint. Likely to push forward and take a sit, barrier 7 is ideal and will be hard to beat.
James Cummings-trained colt GOOD STANDING won at his last start but the way he did it, settling three wide and racing greenly, indicated further improvement to come. Is a lovely type that must be respected and barrier 10 is ideal.
EXTREME CHOICE's stablemate FLYING ARTIE also looms as a serious contender. Ran second to EXTREME CHOICE at his most recent run in Melbourne and no surprise if he turns the tables here. Damien Oliver to ride is a bonus. Likely to go back beyond mid-field but be very strong late and barrier 5 is ideal.
Godolphin's colt TELPERION trialled recently in blinkers and the result was quite significant. Admittedly it was only a trial, but he gave every indication that the gear change might have a positive outcome. A wide barrier makes it a little more difficult but must be included.
KISS AND MAKE UP burst into contention with an all-the-way win at Randwick last start. Beautifully-bred and trained by Gai Waterhouse. Speed should help overcome being drawn in barrier 9 and likely to be in the leading bunch. Sure to keep improving, so must be respected.
SELECTIONS: 1. EXTREME CHOICE, 8. GOOD STANDING, 2. FLYING ARTIE, 9. TELPERION & 4. KISS AND MAKE UP
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple –1. EXTREME CHOICE, 8. GOOD STANDING & 2. FLYING ARTIE
S1-6: Multiple – 14. ENGLISH, 13. FELL SWOOP & 9. SHIRAZ
S1-7: Multiple – 8. SULTRY FEELING, 10. PERIGNON & 2. GRIANTE
S1-6 The Galaxy
Gai Waterhouse-trained filly ENGLISH created a big impression last start at Randwick when she stormed home from the rear to win easily. Can play up badly prior to the start, but has elite ability.
FELL SWOOP ran well without luck in the Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield. The form from that race looks super with THE QUARTERBACK winning a G1 at Flemington last Saturday. FELL SWOOP's run was arguably a better run than THE QUARTERBACK'S when they raced, so must respect here.
SHIRAZ came through the race won by ENGLISH at Randwick. Ran on powerfully and drops significantly in weight, so must be considered.
Star Sydney sprinter TERRAVISTA was scratched from last Saturday at Flemington with a problem. His previous run, when he should have won, was top class. The latest setback is a concern, as is the fact he concedes significant weight to some talented sprinters. However, he is too classy to dismiss.
LUMOSTY will appreciate the huge weight relief here and deserves to be considered.
SELECTIONS: 14. ENGLISH, 13. FELL SWOOP, 9. SHIRAZ, 2. TERRAVISTA & 11. LUMOSTY
S1-7 Birthday Card Stakes
Classy mare SULTRY FEELING has been kept fresh for this and is sure to be hard to beat. Last start she defeated subsequent G1 winner PEEPING which is super form. She has since had an easy trial that looked very impressive. Barrier 14 is not ideal, but still the one to beat.
PERIGNON is a lightly-raced three-year-old filly quietly building a solid record. Last start at Randwick she finished strongly to win a race of lesser quality, but she is on an upward spiral, so must be considered.
Backmarker BROOK ROAD has been kept fresh for this race following a big finishing second at Rosehill one month ago. Tends to get back in her races, but then rush home. Jockey Brenton Avdulla is a good rider and barrier 10 suits.
BROOK ROAD's stablemate SAVOUREUX is racing in super form. Has form around SULTRY FEELING and PEEPING, so must be considered. Barrier 18 is a major negative though.
SELECTIONS: 8. SULTRY FEELING, 10. PERIGNON, 5. BROOK ROAD & 7. SAVOUREUX
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