 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
|
|---|---|
| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Doncaster Mile Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 The Country Championships Final
CLEARLY INNOCENT is probably a genuine city grade galloper and entitled to be favourite in a race restricted to country trained horses. He should get a cosy run from low draw and has the ability to unleash a strong sprint. Clearly the one to beat and handles all going.
Super consistent galloper LOFTY'S MENU has a class edge here as clearly the best horse on official handicap ratings, so looks well weighted. He can possess a powerful finish and handles any conditions and definitely a danger here.
PERA PERA is a star country galloper with a great record. Likely to go forward and has star jockey Hugh Bowman to ride. Distance and track looks ideal and must be considered.
ALL SUMMER LONG has only missed a place once in 11 starts and despite a terrible barrier 19 must be considered. At his last two starts he chased home CLEARLY INNOCENT and although no match, was gallant in defeat.
CHRYSOLAUS is consistent in this class with solid recent form. Probably not a serious winning chance, but could be considered as a place hope. Soft track would be a bonus.
SELECTIONS: 3. CLEARLY INNOCENT, 1. LOFTY'S MENU, 4. PERA PERA, 6. ALL SUMMER LONG & 5. CHRYSOLAUS
S1-2 P J Bell Stakes
Talented filly PERIGNON has been racing well in good fields. Stormed home to win fresh up at this track, then ran a creditable third behind SULTRY FEELING in mares grade at Rosehill. Sure to be competitive in an even race.
Ultra-consistent filly EGYPTIAN SYMBOL will be hard to beat after running well last start at Rosehill. Although ran in different races on the day, the times and sectionals for PERIGNON and EGYPTIAN SYMBOL were similar.
Melbourne trained filly SECRET AGENDA looks well suited here and is a definite chance. Outclassed last start in the G1 Newmarket Handicap, but previous form was excellent. She loves soft conditions and is ideally drawn.
Melbourne filly SUPER CASH won impressively over 1,100m last start at Flemington and all her previous runs were in good quality races.
TEMPT ME NOT is a consistent type with form around PERIGNON and EGYPTIAN SYMBOL. Awful barrier draw but has a place chance.
SELECTIONS: 1. PERIGNON, 10. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL, 3. SECRET AGENDA, 9. SUPER CASH & 11. TEMPT ME NOT
S1-3 ATC Sires Produce Stakes
TELPERION produced a big finish in the G1 Golden Slipper and looms as a serious contender. A switch to the bigger track at Randwick and step up in distance seems ideal.
Lightly-raced OMEI SWORD is showing enormous potential and looks a great chance. Both his runs have been outstanding and seems set for this by master trainer Chris Waller, giving every indication that this track will suit perfectly.
PASADENA GIRL is unbeaten 2-2 in Melbourne, she has drawn well and there’s no reason why she can’t go well over a longer trip for a top trainer at what could be good odds.
YANKEE ROSE surprised many with her excellent second in the G1 Golden Slipper and she must be considered here. That performance followed two previous wins at Rosehill, so her form cannot be faulted.
Victorian colt SEABURGE is a lovely type and was a recent winner at Flemington over 1,400m, so his form reads well for this. Like OMEI SWORD he has bypassed the G1 Golden Slipper and looms as a big chance here.
Cracking looking colt GOOD STANDING was disappointing in the G1 Golden Slipper. Looks and races like a 1,600m horse, so expect the distance and slower tempo to suit and is worth another chance.
SELECTIONS:1. TELPERION, 11. OMEI SWORD, 8. YANKEE ROSE, 3. SEABURGE & 2. GOOD STANDING
S1-4 Australian Derby
TARZINO simply looks like the winner. Powerful stayer sure to have improved after a dominant win at Rosehill on 19th March. Track and distance is ideal.
Star staying filly JAMEKA is likely to provide solid competition and looks a great place chance. Her most recent run behind TARZINO was good, but hard to see her turning the tables here.
Godolphin's TALLY is maturing into a very promising stayer. He has been super impressive when easily winning his last two starts in Melbourne.
The distance won't be a problem for New Zealand-trained WHAT'S THE STORY, who ran well in the G1 New Zealand Derby earlier last month.
Consistent Chris Waller-trained colt VANBRUGH has the services of Hugh Bowman and is sure to be fitter following his most recent run behind TARZINO. Hard to see him winning, but has to be considered.
SELECTIONS: 1. TARZINO, 13. JAMEKA, 4. TALLY, 8. WHAT'S THE STORY & 2. VANBRUGH
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 1. TARZINO
Selections – 13. JAMEKA, 4. TALLY, 8. WHAT'S THE STORY & 2. VANBRUGH
S1-5: Banker – 14. EXOSPHERE
Selections – 1. CHAUTAUQUA, 15. ENGLISH, 4. TERRAVISTA & 2. FLAMBERGE
S1-5 T J Smith Stakes
Boom Godolphin-trained galloper EXOSPHERE is yet to realise his full potential. Must forgive his most recent failure in Melbourne and go on his previous Sydney form. His recent trial was outstanding.
Champion sprinter CHAUTAUQUA won this race last year. His latest run at Flemington was somewhat disappointing, but I suspect he will be much fitter this time.
Gai Waterhouse's filly ENGLISH has the ability. She does however tend to make her winning chances difficult by being slowly away. Her most recent unplaced run was a real eye catcher.
Top class Sydney sprinter TERRAVISTA which has struggled with fitness and injury issues during the last month. Hasn't had the ideal preparation, but a sharp improvement would not surprise.
Somewhat under-rated galloper FLAMBERGE continues to perform at top level and is sure to be competitive.
SELECTIONS:: 14. EXOSPHERE, 1. CHAUTAUQUA, 15. ENGLISH, 4. TERRAVISTA & 2. FLAMBERGE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple –14. EXOSPHERE, 1. CHAUTAUQUA & 15. ENGLISH
S1-6: Multiple – 10. HAPPY CLAPPER, 3. WINX & 11. AZKADELLIA
S1-7: Multiple – 2. ALASKAN ROSE, 1. SACRED EYE & 5. DAISY'S JOY
S1-6 Doncaster Mile
Lightly raced galloper HAPPY CLAPPER is primed for this race. Both his runs this preparation have been solid at weight-for-age and he is a winner over 1,600m here. Much better suited under handicap conditions.
Champion mare WINX is racing in outstanding form and has won her last 8 starts, so I am reluctant to say this challenge is too big. However, this is a handicap so I am not conceding yet.
Highly quality mare AZKADELLIA bursting to win a G1 race. Her chances would have been enhanced on a soft track, but irrespective she has the ability to be in the finish.
KERMADEC is yet another Chris Waller runner with solid recent form. His most recent run was a second to WINX where he seemed to have every chance. However this track and distance suits, so has to be considered.
Raced well below expectations TURN ME LOOSE last start behind WINX, where he uncharacteristically found nothing under pressure and is worth another chance.
SELECTIONS: 10. HAPPY CLAPPER, 3. WINX, 11. AZKADELLIA, 1. KERMADEC & 2. TURN ME LOOSE
S1-7 Adrian Knox Stakes
Melbourne-trained filly ALASKAN ROSE has solid form – somewhat similar to SACRED EYE in Melbourne. Her most recent run was an indication that 2,000m might suit.
Talented-filly SACRED EYE is suited here. Both lead up runs have been satisfactory and 2,000m seems to be her best distance. Difficult to see her beating ALASKAN ROSE at the weights based on their form in Melbourne last Spring.
DAISY'S JOY is a beautifully-bred staying type suited here. It might pay to forgive her most recent failure and go on her previous run behind SELF ESTEEM – that looks better form for this.
ALITTLE LOOSE is a Melbourne filly trained by the astute handler Michael Kent, so should be respected. Gives every indication that this track and distance will suit.
BULLA BABY is a likely staying type and all five runs have contained merit. Her dam was a strong stayer so expect her to be strong at the end.
SELECTIONS: 2. ALASKAN ROSE, 1. SACRED EYE, 5. DAISY'S JOY, 6. ALITTLE LOOSE & 10. BULLA BABY
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
