 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
|
|---|---|
| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Percy Sykes Stakes
THYME FOR ROSES looked impressive at its most recent start down the straight at Flemington when comfortably defeating EMPHATICALLY and SOVIET SECRET. She won her first start on a soft track so expect her to be hard to beat in similar conditions.
Consistent type TWIST TOPS is racing well and will be hard to beat. Last start she was third at Rosehill and beat PROMPT RESPONSE. On that occasion she settled midfield and ran on nicely. Possibly the best credentialed to handle the predicted soft conditions.
Chris Waller-trained filly GRETNA looks a genuine contender here. She has looked good at her past two Melbourne runs, finishing off strongly each time. She has trial well on soft and heavy tracks, so must be included.
THYME FOR ROSES' stablemate PROMPT RESPONSE has shown plenty of promise. Ran fourth last start at Rosehill on a good track in a high-quality race. Unknown on genuine ‘soft’ ground under race conditions, but did win a trial on wet ground recently.
A nice draw brings SOVIET SECRET looks a chance after a decent first-up in Melbourne at G3 level.
SELECTIONS: 1. THYME FOR ROSES, 3. TWIST TOPS, 11. GRETNA, 9. PROMPT RESPONSE & 5. SOVIET SECRET
S1-2 Royal Sovereign Stakes 3yo Sprint
JAPONISME loves soft ground and is easily the best-credentialed galloper in the race and gets his chance here. Recent form has been in G1 sprints against some real stars and last run was an excellent third to FLAMBERGE at Moonee Valley.
Star Melbourne filly PETITS FILOUS is sure to be competitive. Races forward and handles all types of conditions. Her recent win in Melbourne confirmed she is ready for this challenge.
HELLBENT is fresh-up since easily winning at Flemington in January. He is the new horse on the scene, loves soft conditions and has Blake Shinn to ride. Inside barrier is most likely a negative though.
COUNTERATTACK looks a likely contender with Craig Williams to ride and barrier 9 seemingly ideal. A horse much better suited under these conditions in a race where he gets some weight relief and his preferred soft track.
A fitness edge and liking for soft conditions could help consistent filly EGYPTIAN SYMBOL sneak into placings.
SELECTIONS: 1. JAPONISME, 12. PETITS FILOUS, 7. HELLBENT, 3. COUNTERATTACK & 14. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL
S1-3 Australian Oaks
Star staying filly JAMEKA clearly profiles as the one to beat. Distance is not a problem, revels in soft conditions, recent form strong and has had the benefit of a tough recent run over 2,400m – and that was a second last Saturday in the G1 Australian Derby against the males. Her main opposition is coming through fillies lead up races over 2,000m, and given the likelihood of a soft track, it seems JAMEKA is best placed to handle what is sure to be a tough assignment.
VALLEY GIRL is a tough type and her form through the G1 New Zealand Derby, where she was fifth, was franked when TAVAGO smashed rivals in the G1 Australian Derby against the boys.
Lightly-raced type HAPPY HANNAH has plenty of upside and closing sectionals looked good in last run when third over 2,000m.
CAPELLA also ran well in the G1 New Zealand Derby ahead TAVAGO and was beaten less than two lengths in the lead-up race.
Star New Zealand filly SOFIA ROSA ran second in the G1 New Zealand Oaks recently and loves soft conditions.
SELECTIONS: 1. JAMEKA, 6. VALLEY GIRL, 13. HAPPY HANNAH, 10. CAPELLA & 7. SOFIA ROSA
S1-4 Sydney Cup
GRAND MARSHAL was the winner of this race last year on a soft track and seems to be going just as well. Looks well-weighted and has star jockey James McDonald to ride. With the likelihood of at least a soft track, he should be hard to beat.
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN is a high-quality stayer racing in great form. His recent second to PREFERMENT at 2,400m indicates he is ready to peak here. He ran second in this race last year to GRAND MARSHAL and no surprise if he fight out the finish again. Wet track is not a problem.
LIBRAN is a stablemate of the top two selections and has won its last three starts. Originally looked very well weighted, but now seems close to GRAND MARSHAL and WHO SHOT THEBARMAN given their recent form. Best form is on firm tracks so rain-affected going is a concern.
Classy stayer ALMOONQITH looks nicely weighted here. All his lead up runs have been in unsuitable races but have brought the horse to peak fitness. The wet condition is an unknown but must be considered.
GALLANTE loves wet ground and gives jockey Kerrin McEvoy an outside chance.
SELECTIONS: 3. GRAND MARSHAL, 1. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 4. LIBRAN, 2. ALMOONQITH & 7. GALLANTE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 3. GRAND MARSHAL
Selections – 1. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 4. LIBRAN, 2. ALMOONQITH & 7. GALLANTE
S1-5: Banker – 3. AZKADELLIA
Selections – 6. ZANBAGH, 16. RISQUE, 14. BADAWIYA & 9. VERGARA
S1-5 The Coolmore Legacy Stakes (Queen of the Turf Stakes)
Star mare AZKADELLIA looks destined to win a G1 event and is the one to beat. This looks her chance following an excellent third last Saturday to WINX. She loves soft conditions and a likelihood of a solid pace sets the race up for her.
Classy mare ZANBAGH loves wet tracks and is likely to get conditions to suit. Her recent win was when carrying a much lighter weight but she is in excellent form.
Former New Zealand mare RISQUE is now with the David Hayes and Tom Dabernig stable. Form reads only fairly, but she may be better suited on the soft ground which is sure to be the case this Saturday.
Talented filly BADAWIYA has drawn the outside barrier, which may not be such a bad thing late in the day. She has the ability to quicken off a solid speed and handles soft conditions.
VERGARA is in great from but will be up on the speed and a query on soft tracks makes it hard to be confident.
SELECTIONS: 3. AZKADELLIA, 6. ZANBAGH, 16. RISQUE, 14. BADAWIYA & 9. VERGARA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. AZKADELLIA, 6. ZANBAGH & 16. RISQUE
S1-6: Multiple – 5. THE UNITED STATES, 1. CRITERION & 2. PREFERMENT
S1-7: Multiple – 1. BOUNDING, 2. GRIANTE & 4. SULTRY FEELING
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Highly talented galloper THE UNITED STATES has been kept fresh for this and that may be the telling factor. His recent win in the G1 Ranvet Stakes was that of a class galloper. He has soft track form and some untapped potential.
CRITERION is seemingly racing below best form, but a rapid improvement under these track conditions would not surprise. He won this race last year, so don’t dismiss.
Sydney star PREFERMENT is sure to be hard to beat. His last two wins have been at weight-for-age level, so expect him to be at peak fitness here. His form is better on firmer surfaces, but too good to ignore.
Star mare LUCIA VALENTINA is ideally suited here. She has been kept to a light preparation with this race her obvious target. Revels in wet conditions and this track and distance is ideal.
CRITERION's stablemate RISING ROMANCE is ready to peak here. Her recent runs have been without luck and she has taken time to get fit. Track conditions are likely to suit.
SELECTIONS: 5. THE UNITED STATES, 1. CRITERION, 2. PREFERMENT, 12. LUCIA VALENTINA & 13. RISING ROMANCE
S1-7 Sapphire Stakes
BOUNDING – Top class mare way down in class here after two solid runs at G1 level. Not far away at her most recent run in the G1 The Galaxy behind GRIANTE and relishes wet conditions. Gets her chance here.
Recent G1 winner GRIANTE rarely runs a poor race. Up significantly in weight but way down in class. Barrier 8 seems ideal and the prospect of a wet track holds no fears.
Talented mare SULTRY FEELING has been kept fresh for this following back-to-back wins at Randwick and Rosehill on a good-rated track respectively. She handles soft conditions well and barrier 14 is likely to be an advantage.
Super consistent mare BROOK ROAD is likely to appreciate the likely soft conditions. Tends to get back in her races, so barrier 3 may not be too bad.
SELECTIONS: 1. BOUNDING, 2. GRIANTE, 4. SULTRY FEELING & 8. BROOK ROAD
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
