 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
|
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
It is said that this season's three-year-old colts in Japan are a vintage crop, and many experts who have been involved in writing and commenting on horse racing in Japan, share the feeling that the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), is the strongest ever. I do not hesitate to agree with this opinion.
The initial entry for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly in October was closed earlier this month, and France Galop have confirmed that 11 Japanese-trained horses made an entry. This is the record number and it is amazing that five out of the 11 Japanese entries are three-year-old colts. I am sure we have never seen a crop in Japan which has such a depth. I also strongly believe that this year’s Japanese Derby winner will come from one of the five horses who hold an Arc entry.
My first pick is SATONO DIAMOND. When I watched the allowance race of graduation class which SATONO DIAMOND won at Hanshin on 26th December, I thought I saw the future Derby winner. I was subsequently convinced my judgement was correct when I watched the G3 Kisaragi Sho at Kyoto on 7th February, won again by SATONO DIAMOND. He then disappointed his followers who supported him into 17-10 favourite, when only third in the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas on 17th April, but this was his first start since Kisaragi Sho, and he might not have been as sharp as he was in the previous starts. I believe this is an elaborate blueprint which trainer Yasutoshi Ikee has planned for SATONO DIAMOND in his bid to win the Japanese Derby.
DEE MAJESTY was a surprise winner of the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas, as he was a 30-1 outsider. However, his previous performance in the G3 Kyodo News Service Hai at Tokyo Racecourse on 14th February was impressive, and I believe he was a deserving winner of the first leg of Triple Crown. As he is by SADLER’S WELLS, and comes from the same family as GENEROUS, a dual Derby winner in Europe, I am sure the extra 400m should help him.
MAKAHIKI ran bravely when runner-up in the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas, and finished 1-1/4 lengths ahead of SATONO DIAMOND. Although he is capable of winning the Japanese version of the 'Blue Ribbon of the Turf', my only concern is the 2,400m distance could be slightly longer than the ideal for MAKAHIKI.
I saw VANQUISH RUN for the first time when he was three months old at Shadai Farm, and was very impressed with this first foal out LILY OF THE VALLEY, winner of the G1 Prix de l’Opera. This beautiful and elegant baby was bought at the foal session of the Japan Racing Horse Association Select Sale for 190 million yen, the third highest price at the session, and he has now developed into a strong athlete, while keeping his elegancy. While I feel he has still not matured fully yet, I hope he will run well enough on Sunday to encourage his connections to carry on their challenge for the Arc, since I evaluate he is the most suitable horse to run in Europe, out of five Japanese entries for the Arc.
I have a similar impression about MOUNT ROBSON as VANQUISH RUN. While he may need more time to mature, he is very talented, and has the potential to finish in the first five in the Japanese Derby on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 8. SATONO DIAMOND, 1. DEE MAJESTY, 3. MAKAHIKI, 14. VANQUISH RUN & 9. MOUNT ROBSON
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
