 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Private Banking Stakes (Handicap)
The opening race of Derby Stakes Day, the Private Banking Stakes, a handicap run over 2,016m, has been won by some very decent horses in the past, not least future multiple G1 winner CONDUIT in 2008. Sir Michael Stoute’s son of DALAKHANI went on to register back-to-back successes in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Santa Anita and Stoute landed this prize again 12 months ago with STRAVAGANTE, who was sadly fatally injured at Royal Ascot a few weeks later. The Stoute-Ryan Moore combination is this time represented by POET’S WORD, who comes here on the back of a comfortable 2,045m win at Nottingham last month. He will need to improve on that form if he is to give his trainer a fourth win in this race in the last 11 years, but he’s certainly in the right hands.
John Gosden will be hoping for another big day at Epsom and he can get the day off to the perfect start with CARTAGO. The DANSILI’s colt reappeared in the London Gold Cup at Newbury, which is always a really strong race. TIME TEST won it in 2015 and he is a leading fancy for the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot in a few weeks. This year’s renewal went to IMPERIAL AVIATOR who had previously beaten leading Derby fancy ULYSSES in a very good maiden at Leicester. Although CARTAGO was no match for IMPERIAL AVIATOR, he ran an excellent race to finish second and should be hard to beat here with Frankie Dettori in the saddle. He won the two handicaps he ran in as a two-year-old and looks to have strengthened up over the winter.
Charles Hills had high hopes for HIGH GROUNDS at the start of the season, he even thought he could have been running in the Derby later this afternoon. However, after a respectable third behind MIDTERM in the Classic Trial at Sandown in April, he then disappointed when stepped up to 2,460m in the G3 Chester Vase. He was too keen that day and should appreciate the drop back in distance as well as the drop in class.
Mark Johnston saddles several runners in his bid to win this for the first time since 2007 and BATHOS looks to be the pick of his contenders. The POET’S VOICE’s colt has won five of his last eight starts, including a gutsy success at Goodwood last time. Johnston’s horses are in good form and they are always battle-hardened, so I would expect William Buick’s mount to put up a good performance here.
SELECTIONS: 3. CARTAGO, 7. POET’S WORD, 4. HIGH GROUNDS & 6. BATHOS
S1-2 Princess Elizabeth Stakes
ARABIAN QUEEN became the first three-year-old winner of this G3 prize over 1,704m for fillies and mares in 13 years when she beat her rivals by four lengths 12 months ago. She then went on to cause one of the biggest shocks in recent British racing history by beating Derby winner GOLDEN HORN in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York. This race has never been won by a French trainer in its 21-year history, but that could all be about to change.
Alain de Royer Dupre sends over SAYANA, who will be ridden by world class jockey Christophe Soumillon. She is unbeaten since a narrow defeat on her debut in 2014, but she has only raced three times since then. The daughter of GALILEO has won both her starts this season very easily and she looks a class above this field. She has an entry at Royal Ascot and this looks like the perfect stepping stone to the G2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes.
France are also represented by ROSIE COTTON, but she is well behind SAYANA on form, having only won one of her 11 career starts. This really does look quite a weak G3 race and there doesn’t appear to be much between the other runners.
David O’Meara has proved to be a master at improving horses from other yards. He inherited AMAZING MARIA from Ed Dunlop and won a G2 and two G1 prizes with her in just a few months. He will be hoping to have the same effect with LOAVES AND FISHES who came from Clive Cox’s yard. Well beaten on her first two starts for the yard, she won a handicap at Beverley on her last outing and could be an improver this season.
PERSONA GRATA won two Listed races in France last year, but she has been bitterly disappointing on her two starts this term. She was beaten 115 lengths at Ayr last time so would need a huge turnaround in form. OAKLEY GIRL has been one of the more consistent animals recently, finishing second in a Listed race at Goodwood last time. Trainer Stuart Williams will be hoping she can finish in the front three and she should not be too far away.
Mick Channon saddles EPSOM ICON and she certainly has the right name for this race. She won a maiden at Epsom last July and course form is always a bonus. She was unsurprisingly well beaten in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket two starts back but did not run too badly at Newbury last month.
SELECTIONS: 6. SAYANA, 1. LOAVES AND FISHES, 3. OAKLEY GIRL & 7. EPSOM ICON
S1-3 Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup
A field of eight will go to post for the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup, run over the Derby trip of 2,409m. Aidan O’Brien has been the trainer to follow in this race, winning six of the last nine renewals. He hasn’t had a runner for the last two years but will be represented by FOUND on Saturday. The four-year-old daughter of GALILEO ended last season with a huge G1 win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland, defeating Derby and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner GOLDEN HORN. She is a high class filly, but is not the most consistent. She has already been beaten twice this season, most recently by FASCINATING ROCK at the Curragh last month.
You have to respect anything O’Brien runs in this race, but I’m not convinced that FOUND can beat Roger Varian’s POSTPONED. Formerly trained by Luca Cumani, POSTPONED won the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot last summer before going on to land the G2 Prix Foy at Longchamp in September. Varian took charge of his new stable star shortly after that and his first start for the yard was an impressive G2 win at Meydan in early March. That was the perfect prep race for the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic where POSTPONED ran away for a comfortable success. He is a top class horse over 2,400m, has gone well after a break in the past and seems to like all types of ground. He is a strong fancy to register another G1 victory.
Perhaps the main danger is last year’s G1 St. Leger Stakes winner SIMPLE VERSE. Ralph Beckett’s filly was originally disqualified and placed second at Doncaster after some interference between her and BONDI BEACH. She was later reinstated as the winner at an appeal before going on to collect her second G1 prize in the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot in October. Her reappearance run at Newmarket behind EXOSPHERE was respectable and she is a tough filly who has finished in the first two in her last seven races.
ARABIAN QUEEN will always be remembered as the huge outsider that beat GOLDEN HORN in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes, but she’s a very good filly who deserves her place in this line-up. She won the G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at this meeting last year and clearly handles the unique course well. She also likes softer ground so the recent rain will have been welcomed by trainer David Elsworth.
This looks a competitive race and SECOND STEP would have a chance on his best form. He won a G1 race in Germany last August, although his reappearance run at York, when only finishing third, was slightly disappointing.
SELECTIONS: 2. POSTPONED, 8. SIMPLE VERSE, 7. FOUND & 6. ARABIAN QUEEN
S1-4 ‘Dash’ (Handicap)
Epsom’s 1,000m course is the fastest 1,000m race anywhere in the world. The horses are running downhill practically the whole way and they also have to negotiate Epsom’s famous camber where the ground slopes from right to left. This is the race at the Derby meeting where the draw is most important with 20 speedsters going to post. Although last year’s winner DESERT LAW came out of stall number one 12 months ago, normally a high draw is much preferred. Those drawn high race against the stands rail where the ground is at its flattest and if you can get a good position early you can avoid the traffic problems behind.
DESERT LAW has a better draw this year in stall 12 and his trainer Paul Midgley has just started to hit form. He should have a fair chance of finishing in the first four, as he loves this course, but he’s much higher in the weights this time which will make it hard to win.
DUKE OF FIRENZE won this race three years ago, but was last of 20 in last year’s renewal. However, he seems to have been revitalised by a switch to David Griffiths’ yard and he won a competitive 1,000m handicap at York a few weeks ago. His draw in stall 20 is perfect and if he gets out of the gates quickly he could prove hard to catch. He has to be on your shortlist in what is always a very difficult puzzle to solve.
This race has been won by some older horses down the years and I’m hoping that nine-year-old HUMIDOR can be another. Much of his best form has come at this track and he was unlucky 12 months ago. He finished ninth that day, but he got hampered a number of times when trying to make his challenge. His draw in stall 11 could be a lot worse, while young apprentice jockey George Wood takes off some useful weight from the saddle. He will need more luck than he had last year, but he will be one of the outsiders and has a decent chance of finishing in the money.
My final selection is GREEN DOOR for Robert Cowell who is a master at training sprinters. This five-year-old won a Conditions race over 1,000m by six lengths at Beverley last September when wearing a first-time visor. The visor has been left off for his last three starts, but Cowell has reached for it again here and it could make all the difference.
There are plenty of others to consider, not least Roger Varian’s MALJAA who has finished in the first three in all of his 10 career starts. He travels well, but has been handed a tough draw in stall 6.
Last time out winner HARRY HURRICANE and last year’s third BOOM THE GROOM also have the potential to go close, although stalls 1 and 2 respectively could not be any worse.
SELECTIONS: 5. HUMIDOR, 13. DUKE OF FIRENZE, 4. DESERT LAW & 10. GREEN DOOR
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (40 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 5. HUMIDOR, 13. DUKE OF FIRENZE, 4. DESERT LAW & 10. GREEN DOOR
S1-5: Multiple – 4. CLOTH OF STARS, 16. WINGS OF DESIRE, 15. US ARMY RANGER, 12. RED VERDON & 11. PORT DOUGLAS
S1-5 Derby Stakes
Trainer Aidan O’Brien is set to saddle five runners in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,409m in an attempt to land Britain’s most prestigious flat race for a sixth time. The pick of his quintet, if jockey bookings and the betting markets are to be believed, is Ryan Moore’s mount US ARMY RANGER. Unbeaten in both starts to date, the beautifully bred son of GALILEO only saw a racecourse for the first time in early April when winning a maiden on heavy ground over 2,000m at the Curragh. He stepped up on that performance by narrowly getting the better of stablemate PORT DOUGLAS to land the G3 Chester Vase over 2,460m last time – a race O’Brien won with RULER OF THE WORLD before winning this race back in 2013. The truth of the matter is that he holds a prominent position at the head of the market based on reputation and his connections rather than what he has achieved on the track to date.
PORT DOUGLAS ran a terrific race at Chester and it has been a little overlooked that he carried a penalty that day. He is ultra-tough and can outrun his odds with a bold front-running display with blinkers re-applied.
DEAUVILLE is another well-fancied runner from O’Brien who arrives at Epsom on the back of a good second in last month’s G2 Dante Stakes over 2,080m at York. He finished narrowly behind WINGS OF DESIRE who represents last year’s winning trainer/jockey combination of John Gosden and Frankie Dettori.
Along with US ARMY RANGER, WINGS OF DESIRE is another Derby runner who never raced as a two-year-old. Being a backward son of PIVOTAL, a stallion not known for breeding middle distance horses, it’s easy to see why connections opted to take him out of the Derby back in March. However, an easy win over 2,445m at Wolverhampton along with last month’s success in Dante Stakes prompted connections to supplement him back into the race. He looks sure to run a solid race and it’s hard to envisage DEAUVILLE finishing in front of him.
On breeding grounds alone, there is not another runner in the field better bred than Sir Michael Stoute’s ULYSSES. The son of the great Derby winning stallion GALILEO is also out of Oaks winner LIGHT SHIFT, so the track and trip should be no problem. He looked hugely talented when winning what looked an ordinary maiden over 2,005m at Newbury early last month by eight lengths and looks a special prospect. However, this requires a massive step up and he is very short in the betting markets for one so inexperienced.
A bigger threat could come from the Andre Fabre-trained CLOTH OF STARS who has also only recently been supplemented for the race. Connections landed this prize a few years ago with POUR MOI and this fellow has followed a very similar path. The feeling is that he may not quite have the stardust of the 2011 winner, but the truth is he may not need it.
Jim Bolger saddled NEW APPROACH to win this race back in 2008 and is represented by MOONLIGHT MAGIC. Anything he runs at Epsom should always be respected and the G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial over 2,000m he won at Leopardstown last time has proved a good pointer to Epsom success in the past.
RED VERDON only won a modest looking handicap over 2,382m at Haydock last month, but did so with ease and is improving at a rate of knots. He arrives at Epsom having already raced three times this season and he can outrun his odds.
SELECTIONS: 4. CLOTH OF STARS, 16. WINGS OF DESIRE, 15. US ARMY RANGER, 12. RED VERDON & 11. PORT DOUGLAS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 4. CLOTH OF STARS, 16. WINGS OF DESIRE & 15. US ARMY RANGER
S1-6: Multiple – 3. DURETTO, 11. YORKIDDING & 2. BLUE SURF
S1-7: Multiple – 2. SHARED EQUITY, 10. ZANETTO & 17. BLAINE
S1-6 Asset Finance Stakes (Handicap)
The obvious place to start in this wide-open looking handicap over 2,409m is the top of the weights and POLARISATION makes his debut for trainer Charlie Appleby. He ran a remarkable 14 times last campaign for his former trainer Mark Johnston and even had time to have one run over hurdles for John Ferguson during what should have been a well-deserved break. It would be an incredible effort to win off a career-high mark on his seasonal bow, but he stays and handles all sorts of ground. That said, he looks vulnerable to one or two better handicapped.
Last year’s winner BLUE SURF returns on a similar handicap mark to 12 months ago and looks to have been trained with this race in mind. He handles all sorts of ground, stays the trip and importantly has proven course form. He looks sure to be in the shake-up.
However, the one that makes the most appeal is the Andrew Balding-trained DURETTO who ran so well on his reappearance at Ascot last month when second to KING BOLETE. He looks like a progressive horse and his trainer normally does well at this meeting. One question mark is his ability to handle this unique track, but he looks well-balanced having run well at Newmarket and he looks sure to run well with his stable in good form.
YORKIDDING caught the eye when running on late over 2,681m at Chester last time and seems to be coming back to form. She races off the same mark this afternoon and looks sure to go well even though this 2,409m trip is the bare minimum for her these days.
I have to admit being slightly surprised that Ralph Beckett’s GREEN LIGHT was not penalised for his decent seasonal reappearance at Windsor last month. The five-year-old only narrowly failed to reel in CAPE DISCOVERY, but yet is allowed to race today off the same mark. Whether he is quite good enough to win remains to be seen, but he is definitely well-handicapped and should be involved in the finish. The quirky REPEATER looks dangerously well-handicapped on the best of his form and it would be no surprise to see him get involved either if on his best behaviour.
Finally, I have to mention the unexposed LADURELLI who has shaped with real promise on the polytrack on his two latest starts. This is only the fourth race of his career and he looks well worth a try at this trip.
SELECTIONS: 3. DURETTO, 11. YORKIDDING, 2. BLUE SURF & 12. GREEN LIGHT
S1-7 Asset Management Stakes (Handicap)
All eyes will be on ASHPAN SAM as he attempts to win this handicap over 1,200m for the third successive year. The seven-year-old is back down to a handicap mark of 100 which is quite similar to 12 months ago and is coincidentally exactly the same mark from which he won back in 2014. New trainer David Drinkwater has booked promising apprentice jockey George Wood who takes off some valuable weight from the saddle. The only negative is that ASHPAN SAM arrives at Epsom without having had a prep race at Goodwood which he has used for the last two seasons. Therefore, whether he is race-fit enough to do himself justice is a niggling concern.
That is not a worry for northern raider ZANETTO who has switched from Andrew Balding’s yard to join John Quinn. The six-year-old has run well at Epsom in the past and ran really well on his debut for his new yard at York earlier last month. He can go well if reproducing that promising first start for new connections. SHARED EQUITY is slowly returning to a more workable mark and the handicapper has dropped him in the weights for his last effort at Haydock. The drop back to 1,200m will help and the ground should be perfect for a stable in good form.
Ed Walker’s GHALIB looks sure to be on plenty of shortlists after only narrowly failing to beat FIELDSMAN at Newmarket on his first start of the campaign. That was a promising reappearance and he looks sure to run well.
Finally, at a big price right at the foot of the weights, Kieren Fallon’s mount BLAINE has to be respected. The six-year-old is rated significantly less than when in his prime a few seasons back and showed a spark of form last time over an inadequate 1,000m at York. He ran on really well at the end and was not beaten far. The handicapper has dropped him some more and with a maestro in the saddle he can go well at a big price.
SELECTIONS: 2. SHARED EQUITY, 10. ZANETTO, 17. BLAINE & 8. GHALIB
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