 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for King’s Stand Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Queen Anne Stakes
The opening race of Royal Ascot, the G1 Queen Anne Stakes, run over 1,600m and named after the famous course’s founder, has been won by some very exciting horses in the past, not least FRANKEL. FRANKEL, officially the world’s best ever thoroughbred, won the 2012 edition for late trainer Sir Henry Cecil, under Tom Queally, earning his eleventh successive win in the process. Last year’s running of the race saw French raider SOLOW become the first horse trained outside of England and Ireland to claim the prize since the impressive super mare GOLDIKOVA in 2010.
The international attraction this time round is US entry TEPIN, who has won 11 of her 19 career starts, including the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile and three other G1 races. Mark Casse’s charge has earned her place at the top of the market following a dominant spell in America, but there are question marks surrounding the five-year-old. She has never tackled a straight 1,600m course and the heavy rain that has hit the track recently would not have been welcomed by connections, as she has done most of her winning on a firm surface.
One that will not mind a bit of ease in the ground is the Roger Varian-trained BELARDO. He has already won twice this season, including the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury. He beat a very strong field in that race and built on his previous close fourth in the G2 Sandown Mile where he finished less than two lengths behind TOORMORE, DUTCH CONNECTION and BRETON ROCK. BELARDO had both big performances following on from a winning seasonal reappearance at Doncaster and connections will be hopeful of making it three wins for the year.
ENDLESS DRAMA, trained by Ger Lyons in Ireland, has become a bit of a nearly horse since winning on debut at Naas, coming home a close second in three of his last four runs. The rain would be in his favour and there is no reason why he will not be close again; he certainly deserves some luck having come so close on several occasions and could finally get his nose in front.
Trainer Clive Cox was hoping to get his campaign off to a stunning start when KODI BEAR lined up in the G1 Lockinge Stakes in May but he finished down the field. Cox later claimed the four-year-old, who was the winner of valuable races as Salisbury and Goodwood last year, needed the run having ‘fooled’ him during his work on the gallops. That win at Goodwood last year was really taking and it would be no surprise to see the four-year-old put this season’s disappointing reappearance well behind him and he can run well at a fancy price.
SELECTIONS: 4. BELARDO, 6. ENDLESS DRAMA, 14. TEPIN & 7. KODI BEAR
S1-2 Coventry Stakes
Irish-trained horses have won three of the past five renewals of the Coventry Stakes, a G2 contest run over 1,200m. WAR COMMAND, DAWN APPROACH and POWER have all won the race on their way to bigger and better things and impressive early-season performances suggest CARAVAGGIO could follow in their hoofprints. Aidan O’Brien was the man in charge of POWER and WAR COMMAND back in 2011 and 2013 and the hugely successful trainer has a great chance of winning it again with this son of SCAT DADDY. He was very well backed on his debut at Dundalk and duly obliged, winning under Seamie Heffernan, before following up in a Listed race on Irish 2000 Guineas day a month later. The colt powered clear in impressive fashion that day to secure a comfortable success, despite not really liking the ground, and the extra distance should not be an issue.
One man doing his best to stop O’Brien securing his eighth win in the race since will be trainer Mark Johnston, who won this contest last year with BURATINO. He is represented this time by YALTA. Johnston’s son of EXCEED AND EXCEL got his career off to the perfect start last month when winning on debut at Goodwood, breaking well and cruising into the race before going on to win easily. The unbeaten colt beat previous first-time out winner AFANDEM that day and then won easily at Pontefract to confirm that promise just a week later. YALTA is clearly in good hands and Johnston will be hopeful of becoming the first trainer to claim back-to-back wins in the race since Richard Hannon Snr in 2009 and 2010.
Hannon’s son, Richard Hannon Jnr, will be hopeful of stopping that from happening, though, as he looks to follow in his father’s winning path with MEHMAS. The ACCLAMATION’s colt is perhaps unlucky not to still have his unbeaten record intact having finished second behind GLOBAL APPLAUSE from a poor draw at Sandown in a 1,005m Listed race last month. MEHMAS had previously looked smart, winning at Chester on debut before following up at Newbury nine days later with GLOBAL APPLAUSE in behind. GLOBAL APPLAUSE may have got revenge last time out having got first run, but the draw did Hannon’s chance no favours that day and it would be no surprise to see him get back to winning ways.
Simon Crisford’s MOKARRIS is a very interesting runner having got his head in front of a more experienced rival at Haydock back in May. He travelled like a very good horse that day and has the potential to be top class.
SELECTIONS: 8. MEHMAS, 2. CARAVAGGIO, 9. MOKARRIS & 18. YALTA
S1-3 King's Stand Stakes
The G1 King's Stand Stakes, being part of the Global Sprint Challenge, the speedsters race over 1,000m has attracted a host of talent in recent seasons and this year is no different. Wesley Ward’s monster-filly ACAPULCO blasted home in last year's G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m at this meeting and is one of the United States’ biggest hopes again this time around. She is physically imposing, mightily quick and partnered by Royal Ascot record-breaking jockey Ryan Moore. Moore rode a post-war Royal Ascot record of nine winners at last year’s five-day event and he will be hoping that this American-based sprinter can provide him with a winner on the opening day. Her preparation for this has been faultless, winning minor stakes races at Churchill Downs and Turfway Park with ease, although ground conditions are unlikely to suit.
It’s been eight years since a filly, MISS ANDRETTI in 2007, last triumphed in this race and if it is not ACAPULCO who puts the record straight then it could be MECCA’S ANGEL. The speedy grey finished ahead of the aforementioned ACAPULCO to land her first ever G1 prize in the Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m at York last season. Others in behind that day included last year’s King’s Stand Stakes hero GOLDREAM and the highly-talented, but now ageing sprinter, SOLE POWER. Her trainer Michael Dods will have been delighted to see the heavy rain hit the track in recent days as this filly loves soft ground.
The Clive Cox-trained PROFITABLE is the only horse going to post from England with a 100% record this season. Having landed the G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance, the four-year-old continued his climb up the sprinting ranks to narrowly deny MECCA’S ANGEL in the G2 Temple Stakes over 1,000m at Haydock. He seems to have come of age this season and it would not be a surprise if he sees off MECCA’S ANGEL again. Although that was the filly’s first visit to a track in 2016, and she will likely come on for the run, PROFITABLE travelled like a true speedster and is clearly on an upward curve.
WAADY is another sprinter oozing promise and, although he has twice been beaten by Cox’s runner, he should not be underestimated. The John Gosden-trained four-year-old was held up in the G2 Temple Stakes and was finishing quickest of all to grab third late on. A more prominent ride at Ascot could be the key to getting his head in front. There arguably is not a better trainer in the UK than Gosden at the moment and his horses have to be given the utmost respect at this year’s meeting.
The ground looks to have gone against GOLDREAM, and SOLE POWER who won this race in 2013 and 2014. Conditions are also unlikely to play to the strengths of MUTHMIR should the rain continue to fall.
SELECTIONS: 20. MECCA’S ANGEL, 14. PROFITABLE, 21. ACAPULCO & 18. WAADY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 20. MECCA’S ANGEL, 14. PROFITABLE, 21. ACAPULCO & 18. WAADY
S1-4: Multiple – 1. AWTAAD, 7. THE GURKHA, 6. GALILEO GOLD & 8. ZONDERLAND
S1-4 St James's Palace Stakes
The G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,600m features the cream of the three-year-old crop with winners of the English, French and Irish 2000 Guineas all going to post. Hailing from England is the Hugo Palmer-trained GALILEO GOLD who streaked to victory at Newmarket under Frankie Dettori back in April to bag Palmer the third G1 win of his career. That performance was impressive, not only because he put clear daylight between himself and his nearest rival in Classic company, but also because it was his first run of the season. He could not follow that up in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas, though, where he was well-beaten by the impressive AWTAAD and he willl have to show a bit more if he is going to turn the tables here.
AWTAAD was simply too good for Dettori’s mount at the Curragh and could be a very special horse. The son of previous St James’s Palace Stakes winner CAPE CROSS has not been beaten in any of his four starts since finishing third on debut and looks up to the challenge. Although he clearly enjoyed the softer surface at the Curragh on that day, his trainer, Kevin Prendergast, has been confident in suggesting he will run well whatever the conditions.
As well as the English and Irish Guineas winners, the French version’s victor THE GURKHA will also line up. His runaway victory at Deauville was superb and he has to be respected coming from the Aidan O’Brien yard. The Ballydoyle handler has trained a record seven winners in the race, including last year with GLENEAGLES, and THE GURKHA heads the betting to make it eight this time round. It is hard to know exactly what he beat on that day in France as none of those in behind have come out to win, although third-placed DICTON did secure a top-three finish in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club last time out.
Elsewhere, ZONDERLAND holds strong each-way claims after finishing a credible sixth in the G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket despite a less than enjoyable trip. He struggled to handle the course’s undulations that day but still ran well and later went on to win the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown in good style under Adam Kirby. His trainer Clive Cox holds this horse in very high regard, despite that Sandown win being his first since his debut at Kempton and thinks he is set to go better on a flatter track like Ascot.
EMOTIONLESS had to miss the G1 2000 Guineas due to a setback but is set to line-up here. However, he was very disappointing in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket last October and has plenty to prove.
SELECTIONS: 1. AWTAAD, 7. THE GURKHA, 6. GALILEO GOLD & 8. ZONDERLAND
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 1. AWTAAD, 7. THE GURKHA & 6. GALILEO GOLD
S1-5: Multiple – 12. JENNIES JEWEL, 4. PIQUE SOUS & 7. NO HERETIC
S1-6: Multiple – 9. DRAFTED, 22. BIG CITY DREAMIN & 15. MISTER TRADER
S1-5 Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
The Ascot Stakes is the first of three marathon contests run during Royal Ascot and is the same 4,000m distance as Thursday’s highlight, the G1 Gold Cup. This handicap is always interesting because it is split with horses from Flat and National Hunt stables; and it has been the jumping yards who have dominated in recent years. The last six editions have gone to National Hunt trainers with the last two won by the Irish. A year ago, Irish champion jumps trainer Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore combined to land the prize with CLONDAW WARRIOR, three years on from their success with SIMENON. The pair team up again, this time with PIQUE SOUS who won the Queen Alexandra Stakes at this meeting in 2014. This nine-year-old grey gelding had been off the track since that day when reappearing at the Curragh in Ireland last month over 2,400m. That was far too short a distance for him and it was understandable that he was only 10th of 15 having not raced for so long. However, his trainer is a genius and you can be certain that this race will have been the plan all along. Mullins and Moore have built up a really strong partnership and PIQUE SOUS looks the most likely winner, although hopefully the ground will dry out a little.
Nicky Henderson is another legendary National Hunt trainer and he will be hoping to land his second Ascot Stakes. NO HERETIC, formerly trained on the flat by David Simcock and Paul Cole, won last month’s Chester Cup on just his second start for the yard. Considering that the 2015 Chester Cup winner TRIP TO PARIS followed up in the G1 Gold Cup, he is sure to have plenty of supporters.
If the rain stays around it will put even more emphasis in stamina and that will play to the strengths of Irish mare JENNIES JEWEL. Having won over three miles over hurdles on rain-softened ground, the more testing the conditions the better for the nine-year-old. She won really impressively over 3,200m at the Curragh last time and has run well over hurdles at Ascot before too.
GALIZZI made an impressive debut for his new yard at Goodwood over 3,200m earlier this month on his first run of the calendar year. He had a decent campaign over hurdles throughout the winter and looks worth a try at this marathon trip.
At likely bigger odds, another one who could be in the mix is Brian Ellison’s TOTALIZE. He was seventh in the Chester Cup but he finished his race powerfully to be beaten just over three lengths. Although unlikely to win a race as good as this, his handicap mark is competitive and it would not be a surprise to see him finish in the first four.
There are plenty of other interesting contenders with SILVER CONCORDE and MOSCATO top of that list.
SELECTIONS: 12. JENNIES JEWEL, 4. PIQUE SOUS, 7. NO HERETIC & 9. TOTALIZE
S1-6 Windsor Castle Stakes
American trainer Wesley Ward has won two of the last seven renewals of this Listed race over 1,000m and there are positive vibes about the chances of his filly BIG CITY DREAMIN adding to his impressive record at the Royal Ascot meeting. The daughter of IQBAAL blitzed her way to victory on her racecourse debut over 900m on dirt back at home in Keeneland making all the running. Obviously she faces a much sterner challenge here on her grass debut, but that lack of experience of the conditions did not stop previous stable winners STRIKE THE TIGER or HOOTENANNY.
She looks a leading player but may have most to fear from fellow United States-raider DRAFTED who looked very speedy on his debut back in April also on the dirt over 900m at Keeneland. His time was appreciably quicker and the vibe is that he will take plenty of catching in this contest. The worry for both is their ability to handle the rain-softened conditions which will not only blunt their speed, but also put more of an emphasis on stamina.
Aidan O’Brien had remarkably not won this prize before WASHINGTON DC’s victory 12 months ago and saddles PEDESTAL in an attempt to make it back-to-back victories. He looked to improve for the better ground last time and is another unlikely to relish more rain.
A bigger threat may come from fellow Irish-raider MISTER TRADER who showed good speed when mown down late by leading Coventry Stakes contender CARAVAGGIO. He had previously won in good style at the Curragh and with conditions no worry he can go well at a big price.
Unbeaten in both starts to date, it is also hard to discount KANANEE who looked smart over this trip at York last time. He won with a bit more in hand than the winning distance of a head suggests and it would be no surprise to see him right in the mix again.
SELECTIONS: 9. DRAFTED, 22. BIG CITY DREAMIN, 15. MISTER TRADER & 13. KANANEE
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