 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Norfolk Stakes
Day three of Royal Ascot begins with the G2 Norfolk Stakes, a race for two-year-olds run over a distance of 1,000m, and named in honour of the 16th Duke of Norfolk. Ed Dunlop’s GLOBAL APPLAUSE, who will be bidding to give the trainer his first win in the race, currently sits top of the market following an impressive victory in a Listed race at Sandown back in May. He made virtually all of the running that day with jockey Ryan Moore ensuring he made the most of a good draw in order to get revenge on MEHMAS, who had previously beaten him at Newbury. The bay colt burst onto the scene in impressive fashion in a competitive Newmarket maiden on debut and is fully expected to be involved at the finish here under jockey Frankie Dettori. However, there are questions to answer when it comes to the ground with the rain that has been falling since last Friday leaving conditions at the Berkshire track softer than he has faced before.
Richard Hannon won this race back in 2014 and he has a good chance of getting the crown back again with his entry LEGENDARY LUNCH. This son of DRAGON PULSE was a winner last time out, coming home in front in the Listed Woodcote Stakes at Epsom during the Derby Festival, narrowly holding off the fast-finishing DANIELSFLYER. He is another who suffered defeat on his second run, having been beaten at very shorts odds behind SEA OF SNOW at Windsor, the same track where he won on debut. But he turned the tables on SEA OF SNOW on the Epsom Downs that day and is clearly still improving with every race.
One of the more interesting entries in the line-up is SILVER LINE. He has only had one run, but that was a comfortable victory in a novice stakes at Nottingham. Saeed bin Suroor’s charge went off favourite that day and duly obliged under a confident ride from jockey James Doyle. Doyle takes the ride once again and with the stable’s two-year-olds running so well it would be foolish to rule him out.
Another runner worth keeping on the right side is Aidan O’Brien’s PEACE ENVOY who bids to give the Irish trainer his second successive victory in the race. This son of POWER is two from three this season having won on debut at Dundalk on the polytrack before being narrowly beaten second time out. He returned to winning ways in Listed company when beating former stable companion LUNDY at Naas in May and certainly has the form to go close if handling conditions. He was still very green when winning that race and looks sure to come on for the run.
SELECTIONS: 2. GLOBAL APPLAUSE, 3. LEGENDARY LUNCH, 9. SILVER LINE & 5. PEACE ENVOY
S2-2 Tercentenary Stakes
The G1 Irish 2000 Guineas third BLUE DE VEGA steps up in trip for a tilt at the G3 Tercentenary Stakes over 2,000m. He ran a big race last time behind AWTAAD and GALILEO GOLD in that race and is dangerous slipping down in company. Having won a G3 contest with ease as a two-year-old he could have too much class for his rivals. The German-bred colt is out of a MONTJEU mare and should appreciate both the extra distance and the softer ground.
The great Sir Michael Stoute fields ABDON in a bid to make it two winners in three years after CANNOCK CHASE’s victory in 2014. Despite being slowly into stride over 1,600m on testing ground at Newbury last August, he showed plenty of ability to come out on top against a more experienced field. He could not quite back that up when second in Listed company at Newmarket on his reappearance, but is bound to improve again. Like many of Stoute’s, he looks to be on an upward curve and this race at will have been the plan for some time. The trainer also fields MULK who won a Chester maiden with ease last time out. This is a much tougher assignment, though, and it requires a big leap of faith to support him.
HAWKBILL is the only horse to finish in front of ABDON and trainer Charlie Appleby will be hoping his experience is enough to hold off Stoute’s charge again. The son of KITTEN’S JOY has won his last four races in a row and was certainly more streetwise than ABDON at Newmarket last time. The Godolphin-owned colt looks to handle cut in the ground which could be key with plenty of showers expected in Berkshire.
ROYAL ARTILLERY is another soft ground winner with lots of potential. He won well on his one and only start as a two-year-old on good to soft going at Doncaster before finishing fourth on his reappearance at Sandown. There was firm in the going description that day and it all happened a bit too quickly for him. A slightly awkward head carriage and rounded action suggested he is more at home on a softer surface. He is sure to come on for that run and, seeing as though he was staying on late over 1,600m at Sandown, the extra distance should suit.
STEEL OF MADRID cannot be totally discounted based on his win in Listed company at Newmarket last time but he is unproven on soft ground.
SELECTIONS: 1. BLUE DE VEGA, 2. ABDON, 3. HAWKBILL & 8. ROYAL ARTILLERY
S2-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
The middle distance fillies get a chance to show off their skills in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes run over 2,400m. This tends to be a poorer relation of the G1 Epsom Oaks which was run two weeks ago, but Hugo Palmer’s ARCHITECTURE bids to land her first win of the season after an excellent second behind MINDING in that race. She is comfortably clear on ratings after that top class performance, although the worry is that this race could come too soon. Although clearly showing the right signs back home, you never know until you bring them to the racecourse. However, Palmer is a trainer going places and you have to trust him that he has ARCHITECTURE in the right place otherwise he would not be running her.
Ralph Beckett is a master with fillies. He has not won this race yet, but he has landed the G1 Espom Oaks twice and also took the G1 St Leger Stakes at Doncaster with a filly, SIMPLE VERSE, last September. He saddles CHICADORO in this race who was a respectable second in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m at Newmarket. She was a little keen that day but stayed on well at the end, suggesting the step up in distance to 2,400m should suit. CHICADORO has won on soft ground in the past, so conditions should be fine for her and I am sure this race has been Beckett’s plan for quite some time.
The Irish have an excellent recent record in this race, winning it four times in the past five years, although Aidan O’Brien has only been successful once in the past decade. He does look to have a leading chance this time, though, with EVEN SONG who was one place behind CHICADORO in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes. She looked to be pretty unlucky that day, suffering interference towards the end of the race and she should definitely appreciate this step up in distance. That was her seasonal reappearance and connections then decided to miss the Oaks, presumably waiting for this race instead.
John Gosden is another trainer who has a fine touch with fillies and he won this race with MICHITA back in 2008. He saddles SOVEREIGN PARADE this year who comes here on the back of a sole win in a maiden at Salisbury last month. That was a really impressive display on good-to-soft ground and for Gosden to throw her into G2 company on just her second outing means he holds her in high regard. She is by GALILEO so should relish this trip and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she goes very close.
SELECTIONS: 2. ARCHITECTURE, 5. CHICADORO, 12. SOVEREIGN PARADE & 7. EVEN SONG
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 2. ARCHITECTURE, 5. CHICADORO, 12. SOVEREIGN PARADE & 7. EVEN SONG
S2-4: Multiple – 14. ORDER OF ST GEORGE, 3. FLYING OFFICER, 9. PALLASATOR & 1. CLEVER COOKIE
S2-4 Gold Cup
Aidan O’Brien is somewhat of an expert when it comes to winning the G1 Gold Cup, Britain’s most prestigious race for stayers, run over 4,000m. The Irish trainer has made the race his own, winning six of the last 10 runnings with the likes of FAME AND GLORY, LEADING LIGHT and YEATS all coming home in front. YEATS won the race four years in a row from 2006 to 2009 and a decade on from that first success, O’Brien looks likely to have the winner once again, this time with the hugely talented ORDER OF ST GEORGE. The four-year-old son of GALILEO currently heads the market at a short price, thanks mainly to his hugely impressive victory in the G1 Irish St Leger back in September. That win ranked him as the best European stayer in training at the time and O’Brien made no secret that his long-term intention was to bring him to Royal Ascot. He has reportedly had a few training setbacks, but he got his season off to the perfect start when winning the Listed company at Leopardstown on his seasonal reappearance early this month. The step up to the 4,000m trip should squeeze out some progression and he is the one they all have to beat.
John Gosden has never won the G1 Gold Cup, but he will be hoping the evergreen Frankie Dettori can be the man to end that run as he takes the ride on FLYING OFFICER. Dettori partnered this son of DYNAFORMER in two of his three starts during an unbeaten 2015 campaign, which included a victory in the G2 company at Ascot. He looked as though he needed the run when finishing a narrow third in the Sagaro Stakes back in April, finishing behind both MIZZOU and CLEVER COOKIE who both re-oppose today. The six-year-old will certainly strip fitter for that outing and it would be no surprise to see him reverse that form.
Seven of the previous 10 winners of the race have been trained in Ireland but one trainer who has a cracking chance of improving that record for the English is Sir Mark Prescott. Prescott is represented by PALLASATOR who made a winning reappearance in a G3 company at Sandown last month, beating the Willie Mullins-trained MAX DYNAMITE who also lines up in this race. There is no reason to suggest PALLASATOR would not confirm those placings once again with the step up in trip certain to suit and winning form at this course. He also handles soft ground.
CLEVER COOKIE is another name to put on the shortlist having won on his third attempt of the season at York last month. Peter Niven’s charge was beaten by the smallest of margins on his first two runs this term, before finally getting his head in front in the G2 Yorkshire Cup. He relishes soft ground so the rain would not be a worry for connections and he looks to have a good chance of finishing in the frame.
SELECTIONS: 14. ORDER OF ST GEORGE, 3. FLYING OFFICER, 9. PALLASATOR & 1. CLEVER COOKIE
S2-5 Britannia Stakes (Handicap)
The Britannia Stakes is a handicap race open to three-year-old colts and geldings run over the same 1,600m trip as Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup. A huge field goes to post for the race and a lot of luck in-running will be needed. Yorkshire trainer Richard Fahey has a strong chance of winning this race for the first time with his entry GARCIA who has improved with every race since debut 12 months ago. He displayed plenty of promise first time out, finishing third at Newcastle, before notching a hat-trick of wins at York, Beverley and Haydock over the last two seasons. The Fahey stable is in great form and this unexposed son of PACO BOY will relish the trip with soft ground conditions unlikely to cause him a problem.
Another entry who looks sure to love the trip is the Dean Ivory-trained FIGHTING TEMERAIRE who was staying on well in defeat at Haydock last time out. He was hampered when held up in rear that day and stayed on all the way to the finish but was unable to bridge the gap on OUT AND ABOUT. The son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT is yet to finish outside of the placings from his six career runs and the big-field could prove in his favour now up in trip. FIGHTING TEMERAIRE beat a field of 14 to break his maiden tag at Windsor in late 2015 and, although he has failed to get his head in front again, there are still reasons to be positive. Both runs this season have come in big fields where he has finished runner-up on both occasions. He should be thereabouts once again with the rain no real issue for him.
EDDIE JOCK helped Michael Bell win the 2007 running off his race and he will be hoping to get his hands on it a second time with TAUREAN STAR. He is another in the line-up who will not be fazed by the amount of runners going to post having won 16-runner and 17-runner handicaps on two of his last three appearances. Both of those have come at Ascot and there is no reason why he cannot make it an Ascot hat-trick with apprentice jockey Daniel Muscutt taking off some valuable weight. His latest win at Ascot came on his seasonal reappearance so it would be no surprise to see him build on that run again here.
DEFROCKED comes into the race as a thoroughly unexposed quantity having run a huge race last time out when getting the better of 13 other runners at Doncaster. He is two from three for the season having also won on his reappearance at Windsor with his solitary defeat coming in a race where nothing really went right for him at Sandown. This bay gelding has only had four career runs to date and it would be no surprise to see him offer even more improvement here if he can handle the soft ground.
SELECTIONS: 16. GARCIA, 27. FIGHTING TEMERAIRE, 29. TAUREAN STAR & 15. DEFROCKED
S2-6 King George V Stakes (Handicap)
With no luck in the last seven years, Sir Michael Stoute is still seeking his fifth winner of the King George V Stakes over 2,400m and fields SHRAAOH and PLATITUDE this year. It is the former that looks the more likely winner based on his most recent performance at Newcastle. The son of multiple G1 winner SEA THE STARS drew well clear of his rivals that day and, although this is a much tougher test, looks a real improver. Soft ground is not too much of a concern with German mud-lover MONSUN on the dam-side of the family and Frankie Dettori’s ride which is always a bonus.
Trainer Mick Channon is in fine form this season and he has always regarded HARRISON as one of the best in his yard. He was considered to be a Derby horse for a long time before finding seven of his Classic-generation rivals too good in the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,080m at York. He still looks dangerously well-handicapped and will be ridden by reigning champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa.
Godolphin have won the last two renewals of this race and could make it three in a row with LOVELL. He beat HARRISON into second on his seasonal bow over 2,006m at Sandown and should come on for the run. Being by DUBAWI he is open to plenty of improvement over today’s extra distance and has shown that soft ground is not a problem.
PRIMITIVO is one of the three horses putting a 100% three-year-old record on the line and is the only one in the field bidding for four wins in a row. He followed up wins at Windsor and Newbury, with a comfortable victory over 2,006m at Sandown. He is likely to run a big race again.
GUY FAWKES and NAVAJO WAR DANCE are the other two in the field that have yet to lose a race this season. The former is owned by Her Majesty the Queen and the Royal Ascot crowd would love to see her have a winner as her 90th birthday celebrations continue. It is not out of the question either after a decent performance at Redcar last time out, but this is a big step up in class and the soft ground has to be a concern.
Mark Johnston is the only trainer with five wins in this race and his JUSTE POUR NOUS has to be respected. He is likely to be ridden from the front under Richard Kingscote and has claims of finishing in the money.
SELECTIONS: 8. SHRAAOH, 4. HARRISON, 6. LOVELL & 3. PRIMITIVO
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