 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Diamond Jubilee Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Chesham Stake
Trainer John Gosden won the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m back in 2014 and has a brilliant chance of doing so again this year with CUNCO, FRANKEL’s first winner as a stallion. FRANKEL, officially the world’s best thoroughbred racehorse, has made an unbelievable start to life at stud, as proved by CUNCO’s taking debut win at Newbury. He was not that strong in the market that day, but he clearly knew his job and, despite being green throughout, powered home to win. Gosden was thrilled with the performance and it is clear that the talented two-year-old, who has bags of stamina, will come on massively for the run and will relish the step up in trip.
Another who knows all about the talents of CUNCO is the Andrew Balding-trained ISOMER who chased home the former in that race to finish a close second. He was not beaten far on good to soft ground that day despite being slowly away and with a level break he can be there or thereabouts once again.
Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, who won this race back in 2011 with MAYBE, looks to have one of CUNCO’S main challengers in CHURCHILL. O’Brien flagged the GALILEO colt, who came third at the Curragh on debut, as one of the stable’s better prospects shortly after watching stablemate CARAVAGGIO storm home in the G2 Coventry Stakes. There is clearly bundles of improvement to come from him after that debut run and if he has anything like the ability of CARAVAGGIO he will prove hard to beat.
The soft ground at Ascot could cause one or two problems for these unexposed youngsters, but one that would not have any trouble handling a bit of cut in the ground is MAGILLEN. Charles Hills’ charge is by LOPE DE VEGA and was beaten by the smallest of margins on debut by a short-priced favourite. He remains thoroughly unexposed.
Last year’s running of the race was won by SUITS YOU, trained by France based Eoghan O’neill who watched this son of YOUMZAIN get the better of race favourite Ballydoyle. Trainer Matthieu Palussiere hopes to do the same this year as he makes the journey across the Channel with his chance AIMING FOR RIO who won in taking fashion last time out at Deauville. She had a more experienced previous winner beat with ease that day and certainly improved for her win at Cagnes-Sur-Mer a month earlier. There could still be a lot more to come from this filly.
Richard Hannon Snr secured successive wins in this race in 2008 and 2009 and his son Richard Hannon Jnr will be hoping to follow in his footsteps with ADMIRALITY ARCH. He disappointed on debut on heavy ground at Chantilly but put that form well and truly behind him when winning on better ground at York at a big price in last month. He would not want any more rain but if the Berkshire course stays dry he could have a decent chance with the second from that York race having come out and won since.
SELECTIONS: 3. CUNCO, 2. CHURCHILL, 8. ISOMER & 10. MAGILLEN
S1-2 Wolferton Handicap Stakes
The Wolferton Handicap, run over 2,000m and open to horses aged four and older, was first introduced in 2002 when Royal Ascot was extended to five days to celebrate the Golden Jubilee. The race, which is named after the village of Wolferton near Sandringham House, has been dominated by John Gosden in recent years, with the Newmarket trainer winning three of the last five runnings. But it is Saeed bin Suroor’s BEST OF TIMES that could prove best of the lot here having made an eye-catching impression over an inadequate trip at Chester back in May. That was this son of DUBAWI’s first race in over a year, but he was really progressive prior to that spell away from the track and was even previously thought of as a Derby horse. The stable is among the winners and it would be no surprise to see BEST OF TIMES prove very well-handicapped with the very capable James Doyle taking the ride.
PACIFY, trained by Ralph Beckett, deserves a change of luck having finished second in each of his last three races, including at both Epsom and York this year. That run on the Epsom Downs was particularly impressive as it came on soft and that is as good proof as any that he will handle the conditions at Ascot following a week of showers. This son of PACO BOY has been creeping up the weights of late, but he still looks on a capable mark and is expected to be covered up and played late in the race.
Goldolphin are having a great Royal Ascot having won races including the G3 Jersey Stakes with RIBCHESTER, the G2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes with USHERETTE and the Royal Hunt Cup with PORTAGE. They will be hopeful of adding to their week of glory once again here, with the Charlie Appleby-trained representative OCEANOGRAPHER. He disappointed when looking for his third win in a row last time out at Newmarket where he took a keen hold throughout and ended up finishing out of the places in fourth. That outing at Newmarket was his first of the season and he may have just needed it. He could be allowed to dominate here and it would be no surprise to see him get back to winning ways.
Another hard to leave out of the equation is REVOLUTIONIST who just keeps on improving for trainer Mark Johnston with two wins to date already this season. Johnston won the race a decade ago with I’M SO LUCKY and he will be hoping to be lucky again with this son of PIVOTAL who will have no problem tackling the rain-softened ground.
SELECTIONS: 6. BEST OF TIMES, 13. PACIFY, 12. OCEANOGRAPHER & 5. REVOLUTIONIST
S1-3 Hardwicke Stakes
Four-year-olds have won the last eight renewals of the G2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2,400m but that trend could well be broken this year with the high-class EAGLE TOP taking part. John Gosden’s five-year-old colt was admittedly disappointing on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury but there is reason to believe he is far better than that. He was narrowly beaten by subsequent G1 Dubai Sheema Classic and Coronation Cup winner POSTPONED in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes last summer. If he reproduces that run, he will be hard to beat. In addition to that second behind POSTPONED, the son of PIVOTAL finished runner up in this race last year and won the G2 King Edward VII Stakes on only his third career start over course and distance.
BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE proved she is not scared of a stamina test after running really well in the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes over 2,400m on British Champions Day at Ascot last October. There was soft in the going description that day so any give in the ground looks sure to suit too. Her 2016 campaign got off to a winning start with a commanding victory at York and she is a filly to follow.
EXOSPHERE has arguably the most potential in this field and is expected to run a big race. Despite a mixed bag of performances as a three-year-old, Sir Michael Stoute’s colt appeared to have come on a lot over the winter to run out an impressive winner of the G2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket in April. He looks a typical Stoute improver and there could be more to come. The trainer boasts a record nine wins in this race and it would not be a great surprise if EXOSPHERE lands him his tenth.
Last season’s G1 St. Leger Stakes winner SIMPLE VERSE lines up and is sure to welcome any further rain at Ascot. She is packed full of stamina and her jockey – the young and talented Oisin Murphy – is likely to ride her up with the pace in the hope they can finish in the money.
David Lanigan’s ALMODOVAR was mightily impressive at Kempton last time out and is another with bags of potential. This is a huge step up in class though and backing him requires a giant leap of faith.
Do not totally discount MOUNT LOGAN. He is versatile in terms of ground and won a competitive Listed event on his seasonal bow over today’s distance at Goodwood.
SELECTIONS: 4. EAGLE TOP, 9. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE, 5. EXOSPHERE & 10. SIMPLE VERSE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 4. EAGLE TOP, 9. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE, 5. EXOSPHERE & 10. SIMPLE VERSE
S1-4: Multiple – 4. MAGICAL MEMORY, 8. THE TIN MAN, 9. TWILIGHT SON & 1. GOLD-FUN
S1-4 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
Frankie Dettori has had plenty of great moments to savour at Royal Ascot, including winning last year’s G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m on UNDRAFTED, and the aptly named MAGICAL MEMORY gives him a good chance of another. With wins in the G3 Abernant Stakes and then the G2 Duke of York Stakes, the Charles Hills-trained four-year-old has proved he is ready to mix it with the best. Some thought that soft ground would trouble the son of ZEBEDEE on his seasonal bow at Newmarket but he did enough to hold off a competitive field.
THE TIN MAN was far from rusty when winning on his seasonal reappearance at Windsor and that performance booked him a place at Royal Ascot. While the James Fanshawe-trained four-year-old still has a way to go before he is considered in the same bracket as his high-class half-brother DEACON BLUES, or even ex-stablemate and 2011 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winner SOCIETY ROCK, he showed plenty of promise and is an exciting prospect.
The same was said for TWILIGHT SON last season and he proved he is a top-class sprinter when landing the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock. He was then second over course and distance in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on good to soft and is expected to go very close. The only concern is the way he started his 2016 campaign. He finished back in fifth in the G2 Duke of York Stakes won by MAGICAL MEMORY and never looked like getting involved. Still, he will strip fitter for that run and should be back to somewhere near his best.
Hong Kong’s hopes of claiming a second Diamond Jubilee Stakes rest on the shoulders of Richard Gibson and his GOLD-FUN. Having won last year’s G2 Jockey Club Sprint and finishing runner-up in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint, the seven-year-old colt brings some strong international form to the table. Despite breaking slowly in the Hong Kong Sprint and being trapped behind horses coming round the home turn, he showed an impressive turn of foot to be first past the post and is likely to be seen flashing home late again.
David O’Meara’s French recruit SUEDOIS was second in the G2 Duke of York Stakes behind MAGICAL MEMORY but ahead of TWILIGHT SON and has to be considered on that basis. That form looks particularly strong and he is probably still improving. Being by LE HAVRE he is likely to relish the softer conditions too.
SELECTIONS: 4. MAGICAL MEMORY, 8. THE TIN MAN, 9. TWILIGHT SON & 1. GOLD-FUN
S1-5 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)
Trainer Kevin Ryan tasted Royal Ascot success in the Wokingham Stakes over 1,200m with YORK GLORY just three years ago. And he holds a good chance of a second win the race with BRANDO this time around. The son of PIVOTAL put plenty of daylight between him and his nearest rival on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket. He could not quite follow that up in a competitive 17-runner sprint at York but the ground was on the quick side and he was away slowly. He definitely appreciates a bit of cut in the ground, and after two promising runs this campaign he looks primed to put in a career-best performance.
Eight-year-old DINKUM DIAMOND is a grand old servant of Henry Candy’s but still runs as though the fire is burning brightly. He finished in the money in Ascot’s ultra-competitive company last month and is used to battling his way through big fields. Last time out he ran well to finish fifth in G3 company at Haydock and beat some good horses in the process. G2 winners ADAAY and HERE COMES WHEN were both behind him that day and he looks dangerous back down in handicap company. Last season he finished fourth behind highly progressive sprinter MAGICAL MEMORY in a handicap company over 1,200m at Goodwood – any repeat of that performance and he should go close. Plenty of winners have come up the middle of the track this week so his draw in 13 is not a worry either.
Robert Cowell’s OUTBACK TRAVELLER looked like the winner of the Victoria Cup over 1,400m for a long time before fading in the final furlong to finish half way down the field. Conditions were probably a little quick for him on that day and a return to 1,200m on softer ground will suit.
Cowell knows a thing or two about training sprinters and TOOFI, who he welcomed to his yard over the winter, is his other chance. Last season he was second in a handicap company and fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup which is some of the strongest form on offer. He disappointed a little when finishing down the field at York last time, but that was over an inadequate 1,000m on unsuitably quick ground. Extra distance in the race should see him back to somewhere near his best and he could go close.
It would take a huge effort for last year’s winner INTERCEPTION to land this prize again, but course and distance form, as well as being versatile in terms of ground, makes him hard to totally discount. He could run into the money again.
SELECTIONS: 20. BRANDO, 16. DINKUM DIAMOND, 21. OUTBACK TRAVELLER & 11. TOOFI
S1-6 Queen Alexandra Stakes
The final race of Royal Ascot comes in the form of the Queen Alexandra Stakes, run over 4,345m, which is the longest race on the flat racing calendar. SANDRO BOTTICELLI looks an interesting runner for Newmarket trainer John Ryan having stayed on over 3,200m at Ascot back in April. He, like the majority of the field, needs to prove he can get this trip but should have no trouble tackling the rain-softened ground having won on soft at Doncaster back in early April. That win at Doncaster came on his seasonal reappearance after nearly a year off the track and he followed that up with a solid second place finish in a G3 on the polytrack. Iconic Italian jockey Frankie Dettori keeps the ride on the four-year-old and that is certainly a positive on a track he does so well at.
Last year’s running of the race was won by ORIENTAL FOX and Mark Johnston’s chance did so in very convincing fashion to give his trainer a first win in the contest. ORIENTAL FOX is back again this year and his chance looks as good as anyone’s having already proved his stamina over course and distance on that occasion. He made a pleasing enough return at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance and the only concern is the soft ground having done most of his winning on firmer conditions.
CLONDAW WARRIOR knows all about the Ascot Stakes having won the race last year and he is another who will have no trouble if the conditions remain testing. The step up in trip for the Queen Alexandra Stakes will certainly put his stamina credentials to the test but winning form already this year, at Fairyhouse in March, is a confidence boost. As was the third-place finish in the G2 Hurdles company just over two weeks later.
MAGIC CIRCLE ran a creditable second on his seasonal reappearance at Salisbury in May following a hat-trick of wins in 2015 at Newmarket, Haydock and Doncaster. All three wins came with some cut in the ground, so the Ascot surface will not cause any problems for Ralph Beckett’s runner. This son of MAKFI still looks to be improving and he will certainly come on for that first run of the season with F M Berry in the saddle.
The last three runnings of the race have all been won by horses aged seven, which opens the door for FROSTY BERRY, trained by Ed de Giles and ridden by Shane Gray. He put in a stunning performance at Nottingham last time out, winning at a huge price to take the Listed prize just ahead of odds-on favourite CLEVER COOKIE. That win came on heavy ground, so he will have no trouble handling conditions and the fact that CLEVER COOKIE has won since is a bonus.
SELECTIONS: 3. SANDRO BOTTICELLI, 1. ORIENTAL FOX, 5. CLONDAW WARRIOR & 18. MAGIC CIRCLE
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