 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix Vermeille (S1-2) & Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (S1-3) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-2 Prix Vermeille
As with next month's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe meeting, Arc Trials Day this year takes place at the stunning and historical Chantilly, as Longchamp is undergoing some major renovation work. The G1 Prix Vermeille, run over the same 2,400m distance as the Arc itself, is one of the highlights of Sunday's card and brings together Europe's best fillies and mares. Well, that is often the case, as in the last decade this contest has been won twice by TREVE and once by ZARKAVA. This year, however, the race doesn't looks as strong.
The favourite is likely to be Alain de Royer Dupre's CANDARLIYA, as she was second to TREVE in this event 12 months ago and then followed up with a win in the G2 Prix de Royallieu during the Arc meeting. However, since then she has been rather disappointing and flopped at Ascot last October in the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes on British Champions Day. In four starts this season, she's been a warm favourite each time but has only won once. She just doesn't seem to be the same filly this season and the form of her second to NEARLY CAUGHT at Deauville last time is nowhere near the level you would normally require to win a race like this. The fact connections keep changing her trip suggests they are having problems with her but, all that being said, she still brings better form to the table than the others.
British trainer Charlie Appleby's ENDLESS TIME would be favourite and the one to beat if she hadn't run in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks at York last month. She was beaten a very long way that day and, although you can forgive any horse a bad run, it has to be a worry that she was so far behind. However, she's still dangerous to dismiss from the final reckoning in such a weak race.
HIGHLANDS QUEEN comes into this race firmly under the radar. She won a G3 at Saint-Cloud back in May before being disqualified in the G1 Prix de Diane for causing interference. Her last appearance was an impressive G2 win at Deauville and she looks the most likely winner. Of course this is a step up in class, but it isn't a strong renewal. She's improving and has proved that she stays the trip which can't be said about all of her rivals.
GOLDEN VALENTINE has a fairly similar profile to HIGHLANDS QUEEN, although her win at Deauville was only at G3 level. The distance will be no problem for her and she's been running well, albeit in lesser company.
LEFT HAND finished second in the G1 Prix de Diane back in June, but she was a huge price and had absolutely no form going into the race. She might just have been flattered that day and stepping up from 2,000m to 2,400m is also a big question mark.
SELECTIONS: 5. HIGHLANDS QUEEN, 1. CANDARLIYA, 3. GOLDEN VALENTINE & 2. ENDLESS TIME
S1-3 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp
The G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, run over 1,600m, is one of the top races run over the distance in Europe each season. Top horses like MOONLIGHT CLOUD, EXCELEBRATION and GOLDIKOVA have won it in the past decade and three-year-olds have taken three of the last five runnings. This year's renewal looks like a mouthwatering three-way clash between ZELZAL, VADAMOS and ZARAK.
Jean-Claude Rouget's ZELZAL has only been defeated once in five career starts and that came in May's G1 French 2000 Guineas at Deauville. The son of SEA THE STARS got his confidence back with a G3 win at Chantilly in June and then followed up with an excellent victory in the G1 Prix Jean Prat over the same course and distance in July. It may just be that the French 2000 Guineas came too soon for him in his career and he's now turning into one of Europe's top performers over 1,600m.
The main danger on paper is VADAMOS who was only just beaten by RIBCHESTER in last month's G1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. His only disappointing run this season has come on heavy ground, so conditions should be to his liking on Sunday as long as there isn't too much rain. Andre Fabre has always rated him highly and it's as though he's been finding his feet in his last two starts. However, he showed when beaten by RIBCHESTER that he is vulnerable to a progressive three-year-old and you'd think that ZELZAL will have too much speed for him.
Alain de Royer Dupre has another bullet to fire in this race with the promising TRIXIA who has suffered just one defeat in six starts when beaten in April's G3 event. She looks like a classic Dupre filly who is progressing nicely and shouldn't be disgraced in this.
ZARAK has twice chased home the impressive ALMANZOR over 2,100m and 2,000m in last two starts, but suddenly drops back to 1,600m. He wasn't beaten too far in the G1 French 2000 Guineas, so you can see why connections are trying the distance again. He should be in the mix, but might not have the tactical speed against top class rivals.
Speed won't be a problem for the only British contender DUTCH CONNECTION, but stamina might be. All four of his wins have come over 1,400m and I can see Charles Hills' contender colt being swallowed up in the closing stages.
SELECTIONS: 4. ZELZAL, 6. TRIXIA, 2. VADAMOS & 3. ZARAK
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