 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up allowance
This race will take place over 1,800m on the dirt course at Nakayama. My first pick is LORD CHARIOT, a 4YO colt by KINSHASA NO KISEKI. The Mizuki Takayanagi’s trainee has been consistent, finishing runner-up in his last two starts. He may be better different class than his rivals, and he likes the Nakayama track.
The 5YO Shadai Farm bred horse HENRI QUATRE is a very talented horse, by NEO UNIVERSE, and will be one of the picks. He has however a temperament issue, and that will be a key.
MASANO JET, a 3YO colt by KANE HEKILI, is likely a long shot, but should be picked. When he won a maiden race on his debut over 1,400m dirt at Tokyo last October, he looked capable of winning a graded race. He subsequently disappointed in three allowance races on dirt, but seemed back to form, when I saw his last outing at Sapporo when he finished fourth on 3rd September. He is a hold-up runner and if he shows his late kick, he may have a chance.
EMERAL ENERGY is another long-shot but should be focused on. The 4YO colt by FALBRAV has already won in this class, over the same course and distance in January. He subsequently stumbled after leaving the barriers, and never displayed his best in his latest outing at Niigata when he was placed 14th. If he takes lead, which is his strategy, he is very attractive.
MONDE ARGENTE, a 4YO colt by KUROFUNE is a highly regarded runner. However, he has been sidelined for nine months, and this is his first race up from the layoff, so there is a question mark over his fitness.
SELECTIONS: 8. LORD CHARIOT, 12. HENRI QUATRE, 10. MASANO JET, 7. EMERAL ENERGY & 5. MONDE ARGENTE
S1-2 3yo and up allowance
This is a middle plate race (allowance race) for 3YOs and upwards over 1,200m on dirt. My first choice is STING LIKE BEE. The 4YO colt by KINSHASA NO KISEKI debuted in JRA (Japan Racing Association), but was transferred to NAR (National Association of Racing) last October. After three straight wins in NAR, he debuted back in JRA, and won his first-up race in an allowance contest last December. He has already won an allowance race in similar class, over this course and distance in March. He finished poorly in his last two outings, notably his latest start, where he did not travel smoothly over the left-handed track at Tokyo, which means he likes a right-handed course, and Nakayama should suit him. He should set the pace, and if there is no lead horse beside him, he is good enough to win this race.
YOSHIO, a 3YO colt by JOHANNESBURG, is another pick. He finished a disappointing 13th in the G3 event over 1,800m on dirt at Niigata in August, but subsequently finished strongly from a midfield position when third in a middle-class stakes race over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama two weeks ago.
The American-bred 4YO colt, WARRIOR’S SOUL has already won an allowance race, which belongs to the same class of this race, over the course and distance in April. This is his first-up race from a three-month layoff, but we have to focus on him as well.
B B SURRENDER is a consistent performer over 1,200m dirt at Nakayama, with one win and two seconds in three starts. The 3YO son of PYRO usually settles in midfield or better, and if the pace is fast, he has enough speed to travel well in this field.
TOUCH SHITAI is another good closer. The 6YO had been on the board in seven straight starts before his latest run where he finished a disappointing 15th in an allowance race in July. This was due to the distance of 1,700m was being too long for him, so we can ignore that performance.
SELECTIONS: 3. STING LIKE BEE, 6. TOUCH SHITAI, 16. B B SURRENDER, 1. YOSHIO & 14. WARRIOR’S SOUL
S1-3 Saffron Sho
Four out of the last ten winners of the Saffron Sho, stakes for 2YO fillies, were subsequently run well in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies championship race in December. Although this race was transferred from Tokyo to Nakayama last year, and the distance was changed from 1,400m to 1,600m, I still believe the Saffron Sho is a race to select horses that are able to run well in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, and are capable of running well the following spring, rather than selecting precocious and fast horses.
My first choice is AMBER MINNIE. I was very impressed with her performance when she won a maiden for the first time starters at Hanshin on 26th June by three lengths. She is very well-bred, being by DAIWA MAJOR, the champion 2YO sire of JRA in 2015, out of LA BOUM, winner of three Graded Stakes in France. I regard AMBER MINNIE very highly, and believe she stays at least 2,000m, as she is related to MONSUN and IN THE WINGS on her dam side. Although this is her first start since 26th June, I have a report from the Miho Training Centre, stating she is training very well.
PAYS DE MERVEILLES, is also bred by Shadai Farm, the breeders of AMBER MINNIE. She is also well-bred and looks a talented young filly. Her dam, MYSTIC RIVER, winner of three races at JRA, is a sister to three Graded Stakes winners, of which two were G1 winners. Her dam’s half-brother is VICTOIRE PISA, winner of three G1 stakes including the G1 Dubai World Cup, while her dam’s full-brother is SWIFT CURRENT, winner of the G3 Kokura Kinen and runner-up in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn. Her dam is also related to ASAKUSA DEN’EN, winner of the G1 Yasuda Kinen. PAYS DE MERVEILLES was an impressive winner of a maiden for the first time starters at Fukushima on 23rd July, and is trained by Kazuo Fujisawa, champion trainer based at Miho, and who knows how to train classic candidates. I believe she is capable of competing in Graded Stakes company.
APPEAL BIO by NEO UNIVERSE, won a maiden at Fukushima by eight lengths, before finishing fourth in the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes. She performed bravely against the colts in that race, and is my third choice.
TOHO AIRES by HEART’S CRY and AEROLITHE by KUROFUNE, both made successful debuts in maiden company for first time starter’s last time out, and make the short-list.
SELECTIONS: 12. AMBER MINNIE, 9. PAYS DE MERVEILLES, 10. APPEAL BIO, 6. TOHO AIRES & 11. AEROLITHE
S1-4 Katsuura Tokubetsu
Katsuura Tokubetsu is a stakes race for horses belonging to middle class, and takes place over the 1,200m turf course. Past results indicate that horses who dominate from the front, or track the leaders, should run well. Therefore, I will select speed-balls, rather than closers and trailers.
My first choice is PEISHA FELICITA, a 3YO filly by HEART’S CRY. She finished second in Sapporo Sponichi Sho, a stakes race of the same class as Katsuura Tokubetsu, on 3rd September. It was her first start since March, and it was obvious she needed the race, because her body weight, 486kg, was 14kg heavier than her previous start. I do believe she is now ready to produce her best form on Sunday. Though she was well beaten in the G3 Falcon Stakes over 1,400m on turf at Chukyo in March, the ground on the day was too soft for her, and good ground is expected at Nakayama. She also has tactical speed to track leaders.
As well as PEISHA FELICITA, DANON IRIS, a 3YO filly by ARCH, ran well on her last outing, finishing third in the Bakushin Tokubetsu, a stakes race of the same class as this contest. Although she delivered her challenge from the middle of field in her previous race, she made all when she won a maiden race at Niigata in May. She also tracked the leaders and then drew clear when she won the Koriyama Tokubetsu at Fukushima in July. I believe she has enough speed to take up a favorable position here in this field.
EAGLE AMONT, a 5YO horse by EAGLE CAFÉ, has already started eight times this season and finished third in the allowance race in May and jumped up to the middle-class stakes race over 1,200m at Hakodate in July. Placed third in the middle-class stakes race over 1,200m, at Sapporo in August, he finished fourth in another middle-class stakes race over 1,200m at Sapporo on 3rd September latest. If I say there is one issue, he has not run over turf at Nakayama since April 2014, but I believe his recent forms are enough to be focused on in the field.
The 4YO son of RULE OF LAW, PEISHA OF LAW should have a different class in the field as he has already run in three graded races in his career. Although, he had a disappointing outing in the seasonal debut in the listed stakes at Nakayama in January, his recent forms have been progressed a lot with a runner-up in the middle-class stakes race at Hakodate in July and finished third in the following listed stakes race over 1,200m at Sapporo on 3rd September latest. Best lead on sound surface.
My fifth choice is SAKURA D’ESSOR, a 6YO mare by DAIWA MAJOR. She is a closer however, and I introduce her as the horse who has the sharpest turn of foot in the field. If the pace is furiously fast, she would be very dangerous.
SELECTIONS: 10. PEISHA FELICITA, 5. DANON IRIS, 15. EAGLE AMONT, 13. PEISHA OF LAW & 1. SAKURA D’ESSOR
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 10. PEISHA FELICITA
Selections – 5. DANON IRIS, 15. EAGLE AMONT, 13. PEISHA OF LAW & 1. SAKURA D’ESSOR
S1-5: Banker – 2. BLANC BONHEUR
Selections – 5. SHUJI, 1. BIG ARTHUR, 16. NERO & 4. SOLVEIG
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 10. PEISHA FELICITA, 5. DANON IRIS & 15. EAGLE AMONT
S1-5: Multiple – 2. BLANC BONHEUR, 5. SHUJI & 1. BIG ARTHUR
S1-6: Multiple – 9. CROWN SHINE, 6. CENTURION & 8. SNOW MONKEY
S1-5 Sprinters Stakes
The retirement of STRAIGHT GIRL, the defending champion of this race was announced last month. She was the winner of the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo in June, her third Graded Stakes victory in premier class. She will enter quarantine shortly, prior to making the trip to the United Kingdom, where she is planned to mate with the mighty FRANKEL. It means the time has come for us to find a future star in the sprinters’ division in Japan, and I reckon there are two potential stars in the field of the Sprinters Stakes.
One of them is BLANC BONHEUR, a 3YO filly by DEEP IMPACT. I was so impressed when this filly won the G3 Hakodate Nisai Stakes over 1,200m at Hakodate in July 2015 by three and half lengths. Subsequently, she ran well in two outings, finishing third both in the G3 event and the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies before the end of the term. She experienced three poor runs over 1,600m in spring this year, and then returned to the sprint division in August, where she ran against older horses for the first time in the G3 Keeneland Cup over 1,200m, and won the race by half a length. Significantly, jockey Yutaka Take prefers BLANC BONHEUR on Sunday instead of BEL CANTO, winner of five Graded Stakes and owned by the same connections as BLANC BONHEUR. Seldom does Yutaka Take make the wrong choice, so I appoint BLANC BONHEUR as my first choice.
Another fresh name who seems to be a future sprint star in the race is SHUJI, a 3YO colt by KINSHASA NO KISEKI. His race record is similar to BLANC BONHEUR. He was the winner of the G3 Kokura Nisai Stakes over 1,200m at Kokura in September 2015, and then ran bravely in two outings before the end of last season. He is another who produced a couple of disappointing runs earlier this year, before returning to the sprint division. He was second, beaten a nose in the G3 Hakodate Sprint Stakes in June, and filled a similar position in the G3 Keeneland Cup, beaten by half a length in August.
For the young sprinters, the horse to beat is BIG ARTHUR, a 5YO horse, who won the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in March and the G2 Centaur Stakes, a major prep race for Sprinters Stakes three weeks ago. As he tends to become hot before the race, and has never run at Nakayama Racecourse, I would like to see how he behaves in the parade ring before the race, and I suggest you do likewise, before placing money on him.
NERO, a 5YO horse, who was second to BIG ARTHUR in the G2 Centaur Stakes, is a consistent sprinter. His record proves he likes the track at Nakayama, winning two races, and finished second twice from six starts.
SOLVEIG, another 3YO filly in the field, won the G3 Hakodate Sprint Stakes beating SHUJI, and is also an attractive young sprinter.
SELECTIONS: 2. BLANC BONHEUR, 5. SHUJI, 1. BIG ARTHUR, 16. NERO & 4. SOLVEIG
S1-6 Uchibo Stakes
This is a stakes race for horses belonging to a class just below Listed Stakes company, and is run on Nakayama’s inner course, the dirt track, over 1,800m.
CROWN SHINE, a 4YO colt by FOURTY NINERS SON, has already won a stakes race in this class. He won the Shimousa Stakes, over the course and distance in April, and RICCARDO, who was runner-up to CROWN SHINE in that race, subsequently won the G3 Elm Stakes at Sapporo in August. I believe we should respect his form in the Shimousa Stakes, although he has run poorly twice since.
CENTURION, a 4YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA, has also won a stakes race of this class. He won the Korea Racing Authority Trophy, which took place over the same course and distance in March. It is a coincidence that the second finisher in that race was also RICCARDO, winner of the G3 Elm Stakes at Sapporo in August. I believe his form in the Korean Racing Authority Trophy should be regarded as highly as the Shimousa Stakes won by CROWN SHINE. I have also a report from the Miho Training Centre, that CENTURION has been training very well in the morning.
SNOW MONKEY, a 6YO by FASLIYEV, finished a good third last start, form which belongs in the same class as the Uchibo Stakes. The first and second finishers in that race went on to finish first and second in their next start, a stakes race of Listed Class. I believe he is good enough to win a race of this class, and he will be ridden by Keita Tosaki, who has won 142 races so far this season, and is leading the jockey’s table at JRA.
The 3YO KALAKUPUA is the up and coming colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA out of GRINDSTONE mare LILIUOKALANI whose bloodline is a graded race winning producer. He has succeeded to be undefeated in three starts in the middle-class stakes race over 1,700m dirt at Hakodate in July latest. He never runs at Nakayama, but I should respect his recent form and he is good enough to compete well in the field.
SELECTIONS: 9. CROWN SHINE, 6. CENTURION, 8. SNOW MONKEY & 13. KALAKUPUA
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