 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
|
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for British Champions Day (S1-4 to S1-8) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-4 British Champions Sprint Stakes
The sprinters have been the stars of the Flat in the UK this season and the G1 Champions Sprint Stakes is a truly mouthwatering race. Unusually for this time of year, the ground at Ascot is likely to be just on the soft side of good on Saturday which makes this 1,200m contest even more interesting.
James Fanshawe won this contest five years ago with DEACON BLUES and he looks to have a great chance with his half-brother THE TIN MAN, who finished fourth in this race 12 months ago. The son of EQUIANO was disappointing in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes over this course and distance back in June, but he then won well at Newbury and was a respectable second to QUIET REFLECTION in the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last month. This looks to have been the target all season, he is a G1 performer on his day and comes into this as a relatively fresh horse.
QUIET REFLECTION has won four of her five starts this season, two at G1 level, and her display in the Sprint Cup last time was probably her best. Three-year-olds have won half of the last ten renewals, so her age isn’t a reason to take her on. However, her trainer Karl Burke has been struggling for form, while if the rain doesn’t arrive the ground could be a little too quick for her. The other worry is that her least impressive display of the season was arguably her win in the Commonwealth Cup over this course and distance. However, she will be very hard to keep out of the frame as she is an exceptionally talented filly.
MECCA’S ANGEL is a brilliant sprinter at her best, yet this is only her second attempt at 1,200m. She was third in the Prix de L’Abbaye a fortnight ago and this will be her last ever start. She can never be ruled out, especially if the rain falls, but there are enough question marks. She was bitterly disappointing when last seen in action at this track at the Royal meeting and that failure still lives fresh in the memory.
John Gosden’s SHALAA was champion two-year-old sprinter last year and looked good on his reappearance here two weeks ago. He is hugely unexposed but there has to be a worry about having two races so close together after such a long time off the track.
Last year’s runner-up and winner of this season’s G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes TWILIGHT SON likes it at Ascot and is best after a break. His chance will increase with every drop of rain that falls.
LIBRISA BREEZE is a very interesting contender. He’s been running generally in handicaps, but showed an electric burst of speed to win over 1,400m at Ascot last time. The drop back to 1,200m should suit him well and he could surprise a few of the more fancied runners.
One other worthy of a mention is BRANDO who won the 1,200m Ayr Gold Cup last month on his latest start. This race requires another massive step up, but he is a sprinter in form who ran well over this course and distance in the Wokingham Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot back in June.
SELECTIONS: 8. THE TIN MAN, 14. QUIET REFLECTION, 5. LIBRISA BREEZE & 12. SHALAA
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 8. THE TIN MAN, 14. QUIET REFLECTION, 5. LIBRISA BREEZE & 12. SHALAA
S1-5: Multiple – 4. JOURNEY, 13. SEVENTH HEAVEN, 7. ZHUKOVA & 6. SPEEDY BOARDING
S1-5 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
Aidan O’Brien’s SEVENTH HEAVEN is expected to head the market, having secured victory on four of her previous five runs this season, including G1 wins at York and the Curragh. The most recent of her victories came against heavily-fancied stablemate FOUND, who is swerving this race in favour of an attack on the Champion Stakes. O’Brien has had a sensational season and it would be no surprise to see him land the top prize once again, as he looks to overhaul Bobby Frankel’s long-standing record of 25 G1 wins in a season. Before British Champions Day his tally stood at 20, but Ireland has another lively candidate for the big-money prize in the shape of Dermot Weld’s ZHUKOVA, who is unbeaten from three runs this campaign. A Listed win at the Curragh on her seasonal bow was followed by victory on soft ground at Naas and G3 success on a decent surface at Leopardstown at the expense of O’Brien’s short-priced US ARMY RANGER. She has proved her versatility on all types of ground this campaign and will have no trouble tackling conditions at the Berkshire track, regardless of whether the rain comes or not.
JOURNEY, trained by John Gosden, looks Britain’s best chance of a win in the contest, having won two of her last three races with charismatic Italian jockey Frankie Dettori in the saddle again. Gosden has never won this event, but this daughter of DUBAWI went very close behind SIMPLE VERSE last year and the ground should be perfect for her.
The last two runnings of this race have been won by three-year-olds, but James Fanshawe will be hoping to end that run with SPEEDY BOARDING. His four-year-old daughter of SHAMARDAL gave jockey Frederik Tylicki his first G1 success when winning the Prix Jean Romanet in August and the pair team up again here. Since then she has also come home in front at G1 level at Chantilly, winning the Prix de l'Opera ahead of Jim Bolger’s PLEASCACH and the heavily-backed SO MI DAR who lost her unbeaten record that day. The major worry with SPEEDY BOARDING is the 2,400m trip as her best form has come at 2,000m and she was well beaten in this race 12 months ago.
Only the narrowest of margins saw PRETTY PERFECT denied victory at Doncaster last month, with last year’s Fillies and Mares winner SIMPLE VERSE getting up late on. Both forged five lengths clear of the pack that day, but there will be no rematch with trainer Ralph Beckett running SIMPLE VERSE in the Long Distance Cup instead.
SIMPLE VERSE may not be able to secure back-to-back wins in the race, but Andrea Atzeni could after being handed the ride on Sir Michael Stoute’s QUEEN’S TRUST. Atzeni was on board SIMPLE VERSE for last year’s win, but he’ll have his work cut out trying to get maiden winner QUEEN’S TRUST home in front despite some good runs in defeat.
SELECTIONS: 4. JOURNEY, 13. SEVENTH HEAVEN, 7. ZHUKOVA & 6. SPEEDY BOARDING
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
The 1,600m G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes looks to be a real battle of the three-year-olds this year, which perhaps isn’t surprising seeing as seven of the last ten winners were that age.
RIBCHESTER looks the one to beat after he proved his class by winning the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time out. The Godolphin-owned colt had four previous G1 winners behind him that day in France and it looks a very strong piece of form. His trainer, Richard Fahey, has described the son of IFFRAAJ as the classiest horse he has ever trained and, unlike some of his main rivals, he looks to be improving as the season goes on.
GALILEO GOLD, who finished some way behind RIBCHESTER in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois, is a classic and dual-G1 winner this season, so has to be respected. He’s raced in all of the big three-year-old 1,600m contests this season, winning both the G1 2000 Guineas and the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes, and has only finished outside of the first three once in his 10 career starts. However, he was extremely disappointing last time out and may have already peaked this season.
AWTAAD looks well held on his form behind GALILEO GOLD in both the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes and the G1 Sussex Stakes, but he bounced back to winning ways in good style at Leopardstown last month. He also had the beating of GALILEO GOLD in the Irish 2000 Guineas, and a repeat of that performance would see him lay down a big challenge here. His chances would be aided if any of the forecast showers materialise.
It’s been 29 years since the fairer sex landed this prize, but the chances of filly MINDING shouldn’t be ignored. The G1 1000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks winner is, regardless of sex, undoubtedly one of the best three-year-olds in Britain and Ireland and has the ability to mix it with the top colts. The daughter of GALILEO drops back to 1,600m after finishing third in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m, a race where she met trouble in running. She has only been beaten once over today’s distance, and that was by JET SETTING who also runs here.
JET SETTING is the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas heroine who will be praying for some rain to fall. Both of her wins had come on a softer surface, including a wide-margin victory at Tipperary on her last start. On her best form she would be a major player, but she relies heavily on the ground and others look like more reliable options.
Five-year-old LIGHTNING SPEAR took his chance in this race 12 months ago, but he could only manage to finish 12th of 13. Since stepping back to 1,600m he has placed in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and won a G2 event at Goodwood in August. He could lay down a challenge if running a career best.
Others that would enter the picture for the places if the rain comes include MITCHUM SWAGGER and STORMY ANTARCTIC.
SELECTIONS: 10. RIBCHESTER, 13. MINDING, 8. GALILEO GOLD & 7. AWTAAD
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 10. RIBCHESTER, 13. MINDING & 8. GALILEO GOLD
S1-7: Multiple – 8. FOUND, 9. ALMANZOR & 1. FASCINATING ROCK
S1-8: Multiple – 12. YUFTEN, 1. GM HOPKINS & 3. FIRMAMENT
S1-7 Champion Stakes
The highlight of the British Champions Day card is without doubt the G1 Champion Stakes run over 2,000m.
French raider ALMANZOR and the Aidan O’Brien-trained FOUND finished first and second in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes last month, arguably the strongest middle distance contest run on European soil this season. The pair pulled clear from a top-class field with G1 winners behind them in third, fourth, fifth, seventh, eighth and ninth places.
It is easy to understand why ALMANZOR is such a warm favourite as he has won all three of his starts over this extended 2,000m trip, including the G1 Prix du Jockey Club back in June. His trainer Jean-Claude Rouget reports that his contender has been in great form since Leopardstown with the form of that G1 Irish Champion Stakes being given a great boost in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe earlier this month.
FOUND and HIGHLAND REEL, who finished second and seventh respectively, went on to fill the first two places at Chantilly in the 2,400m G1 contest. Rouget’s son of WOOTTON BASSETT has also won on all types of ground, meaning that any last minute rain wouldn’t hinder his chances. It would be easy to assume that ALMANZOR will once again confirm his superiority over FOUND, but a strong case can be made for that Leopardstown form to be reversed.
FOUND wasn’t even her stable’s first string in the Irish Champion Stakes, suggesting that she may have been using that race as a spring board to peak in the Arc and then arguably this contest. She ran out an emphatic winner at Chantilly and there is every reason to believe she lines up at Ascot in the form of her life. There were excuses for her defeat in last year’s Arc and she was also arguably given too much to do when finishing runner-up in this race 12 months ago. This is undoubtedly her time of year, so there’s every chance she can repel ALMANZOR and prove to be the best middle distance horse in Europe.
The biggest danger to the front two will surely come from last year’s winner FASCINATING ROCK who lines up on the back of only three races this season. Dermot Weld’s five-year-old is versatile when it comes to the ground and also arrives at Ascot a far fresher horse having not raced since August. He has twice got the better of FOUND in their three meetings to date, but the feeling is that Aidan O’Brien’s filly will be tough to beat seeing as she’s in such good form.
JACK HOBBS finished third in last year’s race when a hot favourite and was pulled up after fracturing his pelvis in his only start of this campaign back in April. Trainer John Gosden has been extremely patient with the four-year-old and nursed him back to fitness over the last few months. His big race pilot William Buick reported that he felt back to his best in a recent racecourse gallop, but it would require a big leap of faith to see him land this pot.
SELECTIONS: 8. FOUND, 9. ALMANZOR, 1. FASCINATING ROCK & 3. JACK HOBBS
S1-8 Balmoral Handicap
The final race on British Champions Day is the Balmoral Handicap where a maximum field of 20 is set to race over Ascot’s straight 1,600m.
Last year’s runner-up GM HOPKINS heads the weights and is significantly ridden by Ryan Moore who has a fantastic record on the five-year-old. Moore has partnered John Gosden’s runner on three occasions in his career to date and has tasted success twice, both at Ascot. The pair could only finish 12th on their latest start in the handicap at Newmarket over 1,800m last time, but nothing went right throughout the race. Not only did GM HOPKINS rear up on leaving the stalls, he was also short of room at a crucial time meaning the performance can definitely be upgraded. The English handicapper has dropped him in the weights for that effort, meaning he lines up from a very similar mark to 12 months ago. With his stable in such good form he can run really well once more.
David O’Meara’s FIRMAMENT has been in terrific form all season, winning three times and finishing runner-up on three other occasions. Two of those second place finishes have come in his last two starts at this course in competitive handicaps over 200m shorter than this race. The return to 1,600m is definitely a positive, with the only worry being the fact that he is much higher in the weights than when last winning over this trip.
If there is a well-handicapped horse in the race, it could well be the Roger Charlton-trained YUFTEN, who made a really pleasing debut for his new yard at Newmarket last month. Previously trained in Ireland by Johnny Murtagh, the five-year-old looked to have lost his way, having threatened to be very good as a three-year-old when in the hands of William Haggas in Newmarket. At Newmarket last time he ran on late, beaten less than a length in fourth place over 1,400m, with today’s extra distance bound to suit. If returning to anything like the form that saw him beaten a neck in the G1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly over this trip two years ago, he will make a mockery of his current handicap mark.
MORANDO looks to be progressing at a rate of knots, having won his last three starts, and there is every chance that the handicapper hasn’t caught up with him yet. That said, he has risen significantly in the weights for his latest success and doesn’t make that much appeal at prohibitive odds.
It’s just over 20 years since Frankie Dettori famously rode all seven winners in one meeting at this track and he certainly has a chance in the finale aboard AFJAAN who wasn’t beaten far here last time over 1,400m. He is another one sure to be suited by the return to 1,600m and is definitely one for the shortlist.
SELECTIONS: 12. YUFTEN, 1. GM HOPKINS, 3. FIRMAMENT & 20. AFJAAN
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
