 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Cox Plate Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Red Anchor Stakes
Talented colt ARCHIVES looks suited here sitting off what should be a good pace. Forgive his last start failure at Caulfield and go with previous form.
Team Hawkes-trained colt PALLADIAN is the X-factor. Lightly-raced and might be the one with the most immediate upside. Was most impressive last start in Sydney and really extended with purpose over the last 100m.
DAM READY has good form at the track and should be ready to peak. Although beaten home twice by KEN'S DREAM, DAM READY may have more scope for improvement and is a definite chance.
KEN'S DREAM and DALRADIAN are both good chances from the Darren Weir stable. Both press forward and wide barriers may not be a disadvantage. They both ran in the same race at Caulfield last start, DALRADIAN showed blistering pace and fought on well, KEN'S DREAM never looked comfortable so it may pay to forgive that effort.
HIGHLAND BEAT comes through the same Caulfield race and never looked likely after being slowly away. Previous form is solid and the middle barrier draw should be ideal. Is still a chance on best form.
SELECTIONS: 2. ARCHIVES, 6. PALLADIAN, 5. DAM READY, 3. DALRADIAN & 4. HIGHLAND BEAT
S1-2 Tesio Stakes
LADY LE FAY is an ultra-consistent Sydney-trained mare with excellent form credentials and looks the one to beat. Most recent run was at Randwick when second in a top class race for mares. That race rated very highly, so looks well-weighted here.
METAPHORICAL is a very strong mare racing in good form and looks suited in a very even race. Should settle midfield which will allow her to finish strongly.
ANTELUCAN is the likely leader and is gradually getting back to her best form. This is her fifth run this preparation so should be ready to peak. May be disadvantaged if the track is suiting those running on out wide.
ALASKAN ROSE is a talented filly that was disappointing last start at Caulfield when she got too far back and was very wide on the home turn. Yet on her best form she is a definite chance.
Darren Weir-trained mare KANIANA has sound claims. She wouldn’t usually be considered a chance in a G3 race, but the lack of quality competition brings her into calculations. Sure to be in the right part of the track so must be considered.
SELECTIONS: 1. LADY LE FAY, 5. METAPHORICAL, 7. ANTELUCAN, 9. ALASKAN ROSE & 8. KANIANA
S1-3 Fillies Classic
Chris Waller-trained SEZANNE has strong form around GLOBAL GLAMOUR in Sydney. Most recent third at Randwick on 1st October reads very well for this race. GLOBAL GLAMOUR won the race, YANKEE ROSE was second and has since won at G1 level. SEZANNE had every chance, but that form is super.
I AM A STAR is an under-rated filly with a good form profile, especially her recent second in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. On that occasion she had a cosy run and had her chance.
Kiwi filly LA LUNA ROSSA is sure to be suited here. Forgive her most recent failure at Caulfield where she over-raced badly and had no option but to push forward against her normal pattern.
Consistent filly CHIPANDA had sound Sydney form early in her preparation in strong fillies races. Her most recent run at Flemington was on a very windy day when some horses should be forgiven.
OUTBACK RAIN is a strong staying type of filly with two good recent runs. A lack of tactical speed could work against her.
SELECTIONS: 3. SEZANNE, 1. I AM A STAR, 2. LA LUNA ROSSA, 4. CHIPANDA & 7. OUTBACK RAIN
S1-4 Crystal Mile
HE OR SHE is trained by the in-form Hayes partnership and all runs this preparation have been good. That form includes a recent third to WINX when he probably produced his best career run. Race fit and distance ideal.
THE UNITED STATES is clearly the highest-rated horse in the race, but a minor setback has kept the star stayer out of the G1 Cox Plate. His only run this preparation was an excellent sixth at this track and distance in a strong race. Will be hard to beat if anywhere near best.
Darren Weir-trained STRATUM STAR gives the indication he is ready to peak after two excellent runs. After seeing this horse in the parade ring at Caulfield last week I believe he is ready to battle.
ULMANN is an ultra-consistent horse in great form. He was most impressive last start at Flemington, and although not as well suited under these conditions he will be hard to beat. Likely to settle handy and has the ability to sprint quickly if given the right run.
Godolphin-trained galloper FEDERAL looks suited here. His last start run at Flemington was encouraging so has to be considered.
ROYAL RAPTURE is somewhat of an iron horse and must be considered a genuine chance here with some great Moonee Valley form.
SELECTIONS: 3. HE OR SHE, 1. THE UNITED STATES, 2. STRATUM STAR, 8. ULMANN & 7. FEDERAL
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 3. HE OR SHE
Selections – 1. THE UNITED STATES, 2. STRATUM STAR, 8. ULMANN & 7. FEDERAL
S1-5: Banker – 1. GALLANTE
Selections – 4. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, 9. SECOND WAVE, 3. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN &
6. MASTER ZEPHYR
S1-5 Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Former European galloper GALLANTE is sure to be hard beat here over what looks a perfect track and distance. First-up this preparation he chased home subsequent G1 Caulfield Cup winner JAMEKA at Caulfield over 2,000m. He finished in front of EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, so sure to be hard to beat here.
EXCESS KNOWLEDGE is a reliable stayer suited under these conditions. His most recent run when third at Flemington with 128lbs under handicap conditions indicates that he is going well. Distance is ideal and likely to race forward, so must consider.
Light-raced European visitor SECOND WAVE is a lovely type and created a favourable impression while in quarantine. I watched him work on the late last week and he certainly looked impressive. The main concern is that his form is all around 1,600m to 2,000m.
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN was scratched from the Geelong Cup during the week to run here. Proven weight carrier and distance is ideal. Usually races well at this time of the year and although recent form looks somewhat disappointing he is too good to dismiss.
Darren Weir's consistent galloper MASTER ZEPHYR has performed extremely well at this track previously, so should be respected here.
SELECTIONS: 1. GALLANTE, 4. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, 9. SECOND WAVE, 3. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN &
6. MASTER ZEPHYR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. GALLANTE, 4. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE & 9. SECOND WAVE
S1-6: Multiple – 3. HARTNELL, 8. WINX & 6. VADAMOS
S1-7: Multiple – 1. PRIZED ICON, 6. SO SI BON & 2. SACRED ELIXIR
S1-6 Cox Plate
Godolphin-trained galloper HARTNELL has created a huge impression this preparation, producing ratings that are world class. His most recent win at Flemington was arrogant where he won pulling up beating JAMEKA easily and the closing sectional times were simply brilliant. Major concern is the tight circuit here and, of course, WINX.
Australia’s champion mare WINX faces arguably her toughest test. She has won her last 12 starts including this race in 2015. Possibly a telling factor in her favour is her winning form at this track.
Highly-rated European galloper VADAMOS has created a positive impression at the quarantine centre. A powerful type, his form profile certainly looks good enough to test HARTNELL and WINX. In March 2016 he ran second to European champion SOLOW over 1,600m, and 2,040m looks ideal.
Consistent type BLACK HEART BART has G1 form, but mainly from 1,200m to 1,800m and would need everything in his favour to beat HARTNELL or WINX.
High class mare LUCIA VALENTINA is progressing well following an eye catching third to BLACK HEART BART at Caulfield last start. Ideally suited at this distance and her racing pattern suggests she will be running on strongly at the finish.
SELECTIONS: 3. HARTNELL, 8. WINX, 6. VADAMOS, 2. BLACK HEART BART & 9. LUCIA VALENTINA
S1-7 Moonee Valley Vase
Sydney-trained colt PRIZED ICON has the right form profile having contested this distance at his most recent run at Randwick when a close third. Gives every indication that this race will suit and low draw is a bonus.
SO SI BON was very unlucky in the G1 Caulfield Guineas and produced a real eye-catching finish after being held up badly. Bred to stay and runs indicate that he possesses plenty of quality.
Big, strong New Zealand gelding SACRED ELIXIR was disappointing last start in the G1 Caulfield Guineas. However all his previous form was excellent, so if you can forgive one average run, then he has to be considered.
Promising staying fillies HARLOW GOLD and WHISPERING BROOK come off good runs at Caulfield last start and should be competitive.
Chris Waller's highly-regarded colt VELADERO is likely to roll forward and give a good sight. The distance is a query and not sure he has the class to hold off the above challengers.
SELECTIONS: 1. PRIZED ICON, 6. SO SI BON, 2. SACRED ELIXIR, 11. HARLOW GOLD & 10. WHISPERING BROOK
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