 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Lexus Stakes
TOM MELBOURNE finally gets a chance to produce his best and looks ready to peak after a strong second last start. Glen Boss to ride is a bonus and he looks like being the only leader, so should get every opportunity.
Classy mare REAL LOVE is a big chance after a brave fifth in the G1 Caulfield Cup when caught wide and racing with very little luck. Here she is likely to settle in the first four and get an easier run.
Godolphin-trained OCEANOGRAPHER was an impressive third in last week's G3 Geelong Cup over 2,400m. Based on that run, the track and distance of this race should suit. Stable has won both the Geelong Cup and Bendigo Cup in the past two weeks so is sure to be hard to beat.
The recent form of DE LITTLE ENGINE is very good and he seems to reserve his best form for this track. Chad Schofield should give him a soft run from barrier 4, although he is likely to settle midfield or worse. Distance is ideal and must included.
Another talented Godolphin runner, TALLY, is one of the main chances. Drew a very wide barrier in the G1 Caulfield Cup, so forget that run and go on his previous solid form.
SELECTIONS: 5. TOM MELBOURNE, 2. REAL LOVE, 8. OCEANOGRAPHER, 7. DE LITTLE ENGINE & 3. TALLY
S1-2 Coolmore Stud Stakes
STAR TURN is in great form has the edge in what looks like the best race of the carnival so far. Team Hawkes have taken this horse to a new level this preparation.
ASTERN has been the star of the early Spring in Sydney and looks the main challenger. Barrier 8 is ideal for this big and powerful colt.
EXTREME CHOICE has been the best performed colt in Melbourne and showed explosive acceleration in defeating a good field at G1 level last start. That was first-up and trainer Mick Price will have his horse fitter for this race. He led in a recent trial and looked good.
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION is unbeaten and probably a little under-rated. He followed EXTREME CHOICE in the recent trial and galloped impressively. Must be respected from the powerful Snowden yard and being drawn out wide suits.
Last start G3 winner FLYING ARTIE is a high quality colt, but I feel might be slightly inferior on form to the first three horses mentioned. However, he is likely to be competitive.
SELECTIONS: 5. STAR TURN, 3. ASTERN, 2. EXTREME CHOICE, 6. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION & 4. FLYING ARTIE
S1-3 Myer Classic
FIRST SEAL returned to her best form last start at Caulfield over 1,400m and looks well suited in what looks like a top quality race, with very little separating the main chances. Perhaps barrier 1 gives her an edge.
From barrier 4, DIXIE BLOSSOMS profiles as a likely danger with excellent recent form in Sydney. She is lightly raced and only recently has been extended to 1,600m. Has the ability to settle midfield in her races and then produce a powerful finish when required.
Star mare DON'T DOUBT MAMMA has drawn a wide barrier but loves Flemington and is sure to be a key player here. At her most recent run she produced a powerful finish out wide to win easily at Moonee Valley. She will be even better suited at the bigger track.
The booking of star jockey Joao Moreira is a massive bonus for consistent Sydney-based mare DANISH TWIST. Tends to get back in the field and finish strongly. Ran home well last start behind FIRST SEAL, so has to be considered, especially with an ideal draw.
Impressive team Hawkes-trained filly EURO ANGEL looks ready third run from a spell and was a super impressive winner at Caulfield on 12th October. On that occasion she sat wide all the way and exploded at the 400m mark. This track and distance suits.
Three-year-old filly WHISPERING BROOK creates plenty of interest as she gets a significant weight advantage over her older rivals. Barrier 2 is ideal and looks the likely leader. However, this has proven a tough race for three-year-olds to win.
SELECTIONS:2. FIRST SEAL, 10. DIXIE BLOSSOMS, 7. DON'T DOUBT MAMMA, 4. DANISH TWIST & 12. EURO ANGEL
SACRED ELIXIR really stands out as the one to beat in a deep race that brings together a solid group of three-year-old stayers from different form lines. Barrier 1 should ensure he gets a soft run just behind the speed. He is beautifully bred to run the distance and leading jockey Zac Purton is a huge plus.
SWEAR keeps on improving each start and although he is a query at the distance, if Tommy Berry can give him a soft run he can be in the finish. He is only lightly-raced but seems to have some class and excellent form in Group races.
PRIZED ICON ran in the same race with SACRED ELIXIR last start but didn't enjoy the best of runs, so it would be wise to include him as a major chance. Barrier 5 is perfect, so he should have every chance.
SO SI BON has star jockey Hugh Bowman aboard and comes through similar form lines, having ran third last start behind SACRED ELIXIR. However that was on a tight track on soft going, which suited another horse, so expect him to be competitive here.
CAPTAIN DUFFY made a good impression winning the Geelong Classic over 2,200m on 19th October. Seems sure to run the distance and barrier 2 means he should so has to be considered.
SELECTIONS: 1. SACRED ELIXIR, 3. SWEAR, 2. PRIZED ICON, 10. SO SI BON & 7. CAPTAIN DUFFY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 1. SACRED ELIXIR
Selections – 3. SWEAR, 2. PRIZED ICON, 10. SO SI BON & 7. CAPTAIN DUFFY
S1-5: Banker – 2. THE UNITED STATES
Selections – 16. SEABURGE, 4. HE'S OUR ROKKII, 1. PALENTINO & 11. MACKINTOSH
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 1. SACRED ELIXIR, 3. SWEAR & 2. PRIZED ICON
S1-5: Multiple – 2. THE UNITED STATES, 16. SEABURGE & 4. HE'S OUR ROKKII
S1-6: Multiple – 5. KEEN ARRAY, 11. SOUTHERN LEGEND & 9. WE'VE GOT THIS
S1-5 Cantala Stakes
THE UNITED STATES is a top class galloper and returned from a minor setback to easily win last Saturday at Moonee Valley. Barrier 10 is ideal for the strong and classy stayer because it should enable him to position midfield on the outside and get clear galloping room in the straight.
SEABURGE is the wild card here as very few three-year-olds tend to contest this race. However he is the fresh horse on the scene following an excellent second in the G1 Caulfield Guineas. Barrier 2 is a little concern, because he seems to perform best when he races on the outside of horses. Will need some luck, but hard to beat.
Ultra-consistent galloper HE'S OUR ROKKII is taking all before him this preparation and has to be included. Likely to settle forward of midfield on the outside and he's another which will be looking for clear space in the home straight.
PALENTINO must be forgiven for his recent failure in Sydney, instead go on his outstanding Flemington form. Nicely drawn in barrier 7, so only needs to produce his best to be in the finish.
MACKINTOSH and LE ROMAIN both come through the same G1 race in Sydney and must be respected.
SELECTIONS: 2. THE UNITED STATES, 16. SEABURGE, 4. HE'S OUR ROKKII, 1. PALENTINO & 11. MACKINTOSH
S1-6 Linlithgow Stakes
Emerging sprinter KEEN ARRAY was most impressive last start at Caulfield and looks well suited here over a suitable track and distance. Judging by his appearance in the parade ring last start he should be ready to peak.
Talented Sydney galloper SOUTHERN LEGEND brings consistent form and is likely to settle midfield to take advantage of a strong finish. Forgive his last start when he was caught very wide all the way in a strong form race.
Chad Schofield has been booked to ride WE'VE GOT THIS, an under-rated sprinter that seems to save his best for this track and distance. He prefers to settle back in the field and has a powerful finish.
Highly talented mare OCEAN EMBERS has a great form profile for this race. All her recent form is very good, and her last start fourth at Caulfield behind star gallopers reads well. Barrier 1 is a concern however, so she will need some luck over the final 200m.
COUNTERATTACK has been disappointing lately but this race looks more suitable. Nicely drawn in the middle of the field and a return to his best form would see him in the finish. a strong win and an encouraging third behind FAST 'N' ROCKING in a Listed race at Caulfield.
SELECTIONS: 5. KEEN ARRAY, 11. SOUTHERN LEGEND, 9. WE'VE GOT THIS, 8. OCEAN EMBERS & 6. COUNTERATTACK
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