Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn(Naohiro Goda)

S2-1 Tenno Sho Autumn

The last five runnings of Tenno Sho Autumn, have produced mostly shock results. .

In 2011, TOSEN JORDAN was a surprise 32-1 winner, and the following year, winner EISHIN FLASH, was a 16-1 chance. JUST A WAY, winner in 2013, started at 15-1 and SPIELBERG, winner in 2014, went off at 10 to 1. Last year's winner LOVELY DAY broke the long-shot sequence when returned 12-5 favourite, but runner-up STAPHANOS, was a 33 to 1 chance in the 18 runner field.

Many of the leading contenders in this year's Tenno Sho Autumn have uncertain factors which makes the form difficult to evaluate. For example, both of A SHIN HIKARI and REAL STEEL, come straight into the race without having a prep run, while we still don't know how good MAURICE is over 2,000m.

I believe the best horse in the field is A SHIN HIKARI, who won the G1 Hong Kong Cup last December, breaking the track record, and subsequently won the G1 Prix d'Ispahan at Chantilly in May by ten lengths. If he reproduces that form on Sunday, none of opponents will be able to stop him. After returning from France, A SHIN HIKARI had an easy time at Eishin Farm, and then moved to the Ritto Training Centre at the end of August. Since then, he has worked well, and his trainer is very happy with him. As there looks like no early speed in the field apart from A SHIN HIKARI, I believe he can run his race from the front.

My second choice is AMBITIOUS, who was runner-up to dual classic winner DURAMENTE, in the G2 Nakayama Kinen in February, and subsequently won the G2 Osaka Hai in April, beating last season's G1 Kikka Sho winner KITASAN BLACK, and who subsequently triumphed in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring. AMBITIOUS tracked the leader in the G2 Osaka Hai, ridden by Norihiro Yokoyama, and won in workmanlike style. Yokoyama is booked again on Sunday, and I think AMBITIOUS is the most dangerous opponent to A SHIN HIKARI.

It was disappointing for me to see champion miler MAURICE, unable to win the G2 Sapporo Kinen over 2,000m in August. He was beaten by NEOREALISM, who had never won a Graded Stakes before, by two lengths, and only just held off the late challenge by RAINBOW LINE, who was well beaten in Japanese Derby. The competition here is much tougher than the Sapporo Kinen, and Tokyo Racecourse is also tougher than the Sapporo race-track. Even if Ryan Moore is booked to ride him, I cannot regard him higher than my third choice.

When ROUGE BUCK won the G3 Kisaragi Sho beating colts in February last year, she was regarded as the leading contender for the three-year-old fillies' classics. After failing to capture any title at three, she finally bounced back to form and won the G2 Mainichi Okan impressively last time out. She is my fourth choice.

In the G2 Mainichi Okan, STAPHANOS was unlucky loser, failing to see daylight down the homestretch. He was a good second in last year's Tenno Sho Autumn, and I think he is a horse whom we should not forget.



SELECTIONS: 1. A SHIN HIKARI, 3. AMBITIOUS, 8. MAURICE, 9. ROUGE BUCK & 14. STAPHANOS

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