 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Schweppes #FlemingtonFling
SPEEDEOR created a strong impression when he bolted in at Cranbourne over 1,000m when well supported in betting. He is only lightly-raced and trained by premier trainer Darren Weir, so must be respected even though stepping up in class.
Impressive colt BIASED WITNESS has only raced four times and all his runs are good. Last start when resuming at Moonee Valley he chased home CONCHITA, which is strong form for this.
AMANAAT is a lightly-raced colt trained by the Hayes-Dabernig partnership. Bolted in for a soft win on debut back in May and trialled nicely since then at Seymour. Seems set for another big first-up run.
INVINCIBLE AL is trained by me and I’m happy with his condition leading into this fresh-up run. He seems sure to get a cosy run in behind the speed and should be competitive.
Promising galloper FALCOOL is showing lots of natural ability, but is racing quite greenly, so the addition of blinkers is a positive.
SELECTIONS: 10. SPEEDEOR, 3. BIASED WITNESS, 12. AMANAAT, 9. INVINCIBLE AL & 7. FALCOOL
S1-2 Lexus Hybrid Plate
SWEET SHERRY won last Saturday at Moonee Valley when returning from a set-back and looks even better suited here. Form looks good and she should settle mid-field on the outside and get her chance.
FARAWAY TOWN is an interesting runner, as she has only won one race, but virtually all career starts have been eye-catching. Her form behind top horses in Sydney during the Autumn lines up very well for this. Her first-up third in a Listed race at Randwick was excellent and step up in trip suits.
MY COUNTRY is racing right at her best and should be in the finish. The extra distance here might be a disadvantage but is drawn to get a lovely run and that will help.
Newcastle-trained filly JEANNEAU will have to be at her best from a wide gate, as well CHIPANDA, but both have an outside chance in a very even race.
SELECTIONS: 3. SWEET SHERRY, 8. FARAWAY TOWN, 6. MY COUNTRY, 13. JEANNEAU & 14. CHIPANDA
HARTNELL looks well-weighted and has good form. The likelihood of a solid pace should suit.
JAMEKA was a brilliant winner of the major lead-up race the G1 Caulfield Cup over 2,400m. Reported to have trained on beautifully. Needs to settle over longer trip but a major player.
Former European galloper ALMANDIN profiles well here. Good Stayer, light weight and top rider look a winning formula.
ALMOONQITH is somewhat the forgotten horse, but burst into calculations with an outstanding run in the G1 Caulfield Cup when fourth. Unlucky in last year's race and ready to peak.
Another former European galloper EXOSPHERIC is now trained by the Freedman brothers and must be considered following an excellent third in the G1 Caulfield Cup. He had strong European form prior to that and sure to be further improved.
WICKLOW BRAVE and HEARTBREAK CITY have both impressed me in trackwork at the quarantine centre. Both have strong staying form in Europe and both their trainers know what type of horse is needed for this race. Of those two, I have a leaning to WICKLOW BRAVE.
BIG ORANGE is a proven performer and likely to be one of the leaders. He has worked nicely since arriving and must be considered
.
SELECTIONS: 6. HARTNELL, 12. JAMEKA, 17. ALMANDIN, 9. ALMOONQITH & 5. EXOSPHERIC
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 6. HARTNELL
Selections – 12. JAMEKA, 17. ALMANDIN, 9. ALMOONQITH & 5. EXOSPHERIC
S1-4: Banker – 14. FABRIZIO
Selections – 17. PLOT THE COURSE, 12. OBSERVATIONAL, 2. LIDARI & 13. TARQUIN
S1-4 Melbourne Cup Day Plate
FABRIZIO is a bold, front-running galloper, typical of the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable, and is the one to beat. Recent form in Sydney is strong and he can be very hard to run down if allowed to dictate out front.
Emerging middle distance galloper PLOT THE COURSE is sure to get a cosy run behind a solid pace. His last start win at Caulfield was in a good quality race, this is a step up in class again, but expect him to be in the finish.
OBSERVATIONAL is a new addition to the John Sadler stable and looms as a major player. This race profiles well for him as he needs a solidly run race and goes best when racing outside horses. Track, distance and barrier all look ideal and champion jockey Damien Oliver is a bonus.
Former top class galloper LIDARI is returning to form and this class and distance suits. Drawing barrier 16 is a blow but with some luck looms as a place chance.
Godolphin's TARQUIN had every chance last start but a great draw brings the four-year-old into contention. Comes back in trip and that should suit.
SELECTIONS: 14. FABRIZIO, 17. PLOT THE COURSE, 12. OBSERVATIONAL, 2. LIDARI & 13. TARQUIN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 14. FABRIZIO, 17. PLOT THE COURSE & 12. OBSERVATIONAL
S1-5: Multiple – 9. RUETTIGER, 1. FAATINAH & 13. RAVI
S1-6: Multiple – 6. ARTISTRY, 13. DENPURR & 3. SILENT SEDITION
S1-5 MSS Security Sprint
RUETTIGER is set to get a cosy run from the draw and the talented sprinter looks well-suited here. A last-start sixth at Caulfield was good and although FAATINAH beat him home, RUETTIGER meets him significantly better at the weights this time.
FAATINAH is the highest-rated runner with excellent form for this easier assignment. All runs this preparation have been good. Won fresh-up here over the course and distance and last start he was only grabbed late at Caulfield on 15th October by classy type OUR BOY MALACHI. Barrier 9 is ideal and top international jockey Ryan Moore is set to ride.
Team Snowden-trained sprinter RAVI has a very good overall record and although not suited at the weights, she profiles as a filly on the improve. Most recent run at Caulfield was terrific as she was caught very wide all the way.
Talented mare SECRET AGENDA won at this carnival last year. Handles the straight track well and Damien Oliver being booked to ride adds some confidence. Would benefit from a wet track.
Super consistent galloper SUPREME EFFORT has returned in great form around the provincial tracks in New South Wales and his overall record is good. The firm track should suit. Nicely-weighted considering his handicap rating, but this is a much tougher race than those he has contested lately.
SELECTIONS: 9. RUETTIGER, 1. FAATINAH, 13. RAVI, 6. SECRET AGENDA & 7. SUPREME EFFORT
S1-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
ARTISTRY ran a huge race first-up when second in a high-quality G3 event in Sydney. Peter and Paul Snowden must always be respected. If jockey Hugh Bowman can find cover from a tricky draw this consistent mare should win in a race where the Sydney form looks strongest.
Another Snowden-trained filly, DENPURR, has returned in great form winning both her starts in Sydney and gets a lovely draw. Yet to win at 1,400m, but when this stable teams with Kerrin McEvoy is pays to take note and gives you every confidence that it won’t be a problem.
Best of the Melbourne-trained runners is SILENT SEDITION, with a low draw giving champion jockey Craig Williams a chance to find the box seat.
James McDonald gets on KIMBERLEY STAR and his effort will be key to her chances. Will need some luck from a wide draw and running home.
EGYPTIAN SYMBOL beat home ARTISTRY last start but jumps in the weights and will need luck here if Blake Shinn pushes forward from a wide draw.
ROCKOLICIOUS and CAVALOCE both racing well and should be competitive.
SELECTIONS: 6. ARTISTRY, 13. DENPURR, 3. SILENT SEDITION, 10. KIMBERLEY STAR & 2. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL
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