 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Emirates Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 VRC Springtime Stakes
From the powerful Sydney stable of Peter & Paul Snowden, NICCOLANCE is likely to press forward and will be hard to beat. Led last start at Randwick and found plenty to beat subsequent winner COMIN’ THROUGH.
VERSTAPPEN is a precocious colt with plenty of ability and has a great chance here. Trained on the track and looked most impressive matching strides with some of the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes runners in a jump out last week.
Lightly-raced galloper CRAFTED has to be considered after he produced a career best run at Moonee Valley behind ARCHIVES. That race rated well and he looks well suited here.
VALLIANO has to be rated a chance as many of his runs have been in good quality fields. Last start at Caulfield he worked too hard into a very strong wind and his effort there was solid.
Godolphin-trained galloper TESSERA has a solid form profile for this race. He looks better suited here and has trialled well at Cranbourne. Likely to get a cosy run and is very fit.
SELECTIONS: 4. NICCOLANCE, 9. VERSTAPPEN, 8. CRAFTED, 5. VALLIANO & 2. TESSERA
S1-2 Antler Luggage Handicap
STREETWISE SAVOIRE is a consistent sprinter-miler that looks hard to beat. All three runs this preparation have been sound and he maps to get a cosy run sitting third or fourth on the outside.
OBSERVATIONAL is another horse that has found a more than suitable race. This is probably the weakest race he has ever contested, so he should be competitive. Goes best outside horses and champion jockey Damien Oliver is a bonus.
LUCKY PADDY is lightly-raced and prepared by champion trainer Darren Weir. This is his third run this preparation so he should be ready to show his best. Track and distance suits.
Former New Zealand galloper MABEEL was satisfactory first-up in Australia in a strong form race and given the lack of quality in this event, he should be hard to beat.
Enigmatic performer PETROLOGY seems to race best at this time of the year. His recent form is ordinary, but an improvement showing would not surprise.
SELECTIONS: 10. STREETWISE SAVOIRE, 1. OBSERVATIONAL, 8. LUCKY PADDY, 2. MABEEL & 3. PETROLOGY
S1-3 Matriarch Stakes
Lightly raced staying mare HAPPY HANNAH is one of the few among the top chances that is not a doubt at the distance. Her preparation has been timed to perfection and her most recent run at Randwick was the ideal lead-up for this race.
Sydney-trained mare DENMAGIC looks well suited here. Her overall form is solid and her most recent third last Saturday in the major lead-up race was eye-catching. Likely to get a cosy run from a good draw and will be hard to beat.
MANAGERESS is another classy mare that ran second in this race last year behind LUCIA VALENTINA and that was arguably a significantly stronger race than this year’s renewal. Her recent form only looks moderate, but I’m expecting a big improvement here.
Quality Sydney mare LADY LE FAY is racing well and is sure to have targeted this race. Best to forget her most recent run at Moonee Valley as the track and conditions didn’t suit.
SORT AFTER is an emerging filly backing up after an explosive win on Tuesday over 1,700m. This is a pattern I like and history suggests the stable has a good record in knowing which horse it may work with.
SELECTIONS: 16. HAPPY HANNAH, 8. DENMAGIC, 9. MANAGERESS, 10. LADY LE FAY & 15. SORT AFTER
Top class European visitor VADAMOS ran a super race in the G1 Cox Plate behind WINX. On that occasion he took control of the rider and set a hot pace, yet was still fighting on for fourth. He has a similar rating to HARTNELL so expect him to go forward and be hard to beat.
SCOTTISH amazed most with his courageous run when second in the G1 Caulfield Cup, when nothing went right from start to finish. Likely to get a cosy trail this time behind the speed so a strong showing can be expected.
Quality three-year-old GOOD STANDING is difficult to assess against seasoned older horses. However his form is good and with just 112lbs, he will get his chance. Likely to settle in the first four and must be respected.
Class galloper THE UNITED STATES is lining up for his third run in three weeks and his previous two runs were excellent. Good pace seems assured so expect him to be closing very strong late.
ENDLESS DRAMA is an interesting runner and the fresh horse on the scene. His European form profile is very good and he is beautifully-bred. Recently trialled in great fashion, so don’t dismiss.
SELECTIONS: 5. VADAMOS, 7. SCOTTISH, 12. GOOD STANDING, 3. THE UNITED STATES & 8. ENDLESS DRAMA
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 5. VADAMOS
Selections – 7. SCOTTISH, 12. GOOD STANDING, 3. THE UNITED STATES & 8. ENDLESS DRAMA
S1-5: Banker – 7. MALAGUERRA
Selections – 1. LANKAN RUPEE, 3. THE QUARTERBACK, 5. FELL SWOOP & 6. OUR BOY MALACHI
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 5. VADAMOS, 7. SCOTTISH & 12. GOOD STANDING
S1-5: Multiple – 7. MALAGUERRA, 1. LANKAN RUPEE & 3. THE QUARTERBACK
S1-6: Multiple – 10. LUCKY LIBERTY, 5. SANTA ANA LANE, 6. LORD ASPEN
S1-5 Victoria Racing Club Stakes
MALAGUERRA returned from a spell with an excellent second at Caulfield in a strong from race. He seems beautifully drawn out wide and has the opportunity to control the race. This looks an even race and an outside barrier looks like a big advantage.
Top class sprinter LANKAN RUPEE is sure to be fitter following a good first-up third to OUR BOY MALACHI at Caulfield. His second-up record is very good and the quality of this race seems inferior to previous years.
Evergreen sprinter THE QUARTERBACK is racing in career best form. His task is often made difficult because he settles towards the rear and likes to unleash a big sprint late. Winning chances probably depend on his ability to find the best part of the track.
Super-consistent galloper FELL SWOOP will be hard to beat. All his recent form is strong. A negative is that he likes to race forward and this is not an easy assignment down the straight. Likely to look the winner at some stage, so has to be included.
Sydney-trained sprinter OUR BOY MALACHI has an outstanding win record. They may have found the key to him at this level with a change of tactics last start at Caulfield, when he settled towards the rear. It seemed to suit him as he unleashed a powerful last 400m to win easily and likely to be ridden in a similar way here.
SELECTIONS: 7. MALAGUERRA, 1. LANKAN RUPEE, 3. THE QUARTERBACK, 5. FELL SWOOP & 6. OUR BOY MALACHI
S1-6 Emirates Airline Handicap
LUCKY LIBERTY is a lightly-raced galloper that looks well suited here. Has won five races from only eight starts and the trainer has indicated he has high expectations of the horse next year. My only concern is barrier 3, as I believe he races best outside horses.
SANTA ANA LANE has always looked promising but has yet to really deliver. This race looks the right sort of contest for him to take a step up. Has a light weight, wide barrier on a spacious track after a very unlucky fourth last start. Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a plus.
Former boom galloper LORD ASPEN is gradually regaining top form. Most impressive last start in Morphettville Parks and comes back to Flemington with a nice weight.
Former Hong Kong galloper REDKIRK WARRIOR made an impressive Australian debut at Moonee Valley. Probably looking for further now, but still has to be included amongst the chances.
DEMONSTRATE was impressive on Tuesday and on the quick back up. Has to be considered with the wide barrier and drop in weight.
AKAVOROUN and ULMANN come through the same Flemington race with very little between them. Both love the track, but I lean slightly to AKAVOROUN because out wide might be the place to be.
SELECTIONS: 10. LUCKY LIBERTY, 5. SANTA ANA LANE, 6. LORD ASPEN, 7. REDKIRK WARRIOR & 8. DEMONSTRATE
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