 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Lightning Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Talindert Stakes
This is a high quality race with some well-bred horses but TIME AWAITS has the right form line with her most recent run behind star 2YO FORMALITY, a filly that is considered a major player in next week’s G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. A wide barrier may not be a disadvantage.
SANADAAT was an impressive winner last start in Adelaide after she settled behind the speed and lengthened impressively over the final 200m. She has drawn nicely in the middle and has Craig Williams to ride.
A dominant winner at Ballarat at his only start DUCIMUS led and held on strongly. He has had an easy jump out at Flemington so expect him to go forward and be one of the major chances.
TAKING AIM comes from the powerful Snowden stable, so that commands immediate respect. He was second to MENARI, one of top fancies for the G1 Golden Slipper and that form reads well for this. Hugh Bowman to ride is a big plus.
ALL TOO ROYAL was second to DUCIMUS on debut but the addition of blinkers and jumping from an outside barrier should generate significant improvement.
SELECTIONS: 9. TIME AWAITS, 10. SANADAAT, 3. DUCIMUS, 1. TAKING AIM & 4. ALL TOO ROYAL
S1-2 The Vanity
LEGLESS VEUVE will need to carry top weight of 129lbs but still looms as the one to beat. Should get a cosy run on the speed from barrier 4 and judging by her excellent first-up win at Caulfield, she has returned a better filly this preparation.
NURSE KITCHEN is a lightly-raced filly with loads of talent. She has only raced three times and has impressed greatly. Her form from last year reads well for this level, having beaten I AM A STAR in the spring. Hugh Bowman should give her a lovely run from barrier 5.
In-form filly EXTRA OLIVES has a significant fitness edge, Craig Williams to ride and is likely to press forward from barrier 7. Difficult to line her up with the others, but seems sure to be competitive.
Highly-regarded filly HARLOW GOLD showed great form last time out. Likely to be better suited once the distances increase, but has to be included in the chances. One problem for HARLOW GOLD is that she will probably be settling in the back half of the field, so that makes winning difficult.
Improving filly PRINCESS OF QUEENS is racing well, race distance is not a problem and has a fitness edge on most rivals. She will press forward and settle handy or lead for champion jockey Damien Oliver.
SELECTIONS: 1. LEGLESS VEUVE, 2. NURSE KITCHEN, 4. EXTRA OLIVES, 3. HARLOW GOLD & 5. PRINCESS OF QUEENS
S1-3 CS Hayes Stakes
This race contains many quality 3YOs and there is very little between them but HEY DOC is the one to beat. Barrier 4 and the benefit of one run already this preparation gives him an edge here.
Top class middle distance 3YO SEABURGE has a clear class edge on his rivals and is likely to be heading for some of the big races in the Australian autumn. Barrier 11 is a significant negative because he will have to go back at the start, making his task more difficult. Still, I expect him to be rushing home at the finish.
I'm not sure MORTON’S FORK has the necessary class to win, but Craig Williams to ride and an inside barrier 2 bring him into calculations. To my eye he looked to be in need of the run last start at Caulfield, so expect him to be competitive here.
Under-rated galloper WAZZENME is likely to be competitive but may need some luck from barrier 1. He seems likely to settle midfield on the rails, so he will need a good ride from Dwayne Dunn to figure in the placings.
LAND OF PLENTY, THROSSELL and KACHING are all promising gallopers, but will need to take a step up from previous form to upset the top-rated horses.
SELECTIONS: 3. HEY DOC, 1. SEABURGE, 2. MORTON’S FORK, 10. WAZZENME & 11. LAND OF PLENTY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 3. HEY DOC
Selections – 1. SEABURGE, 2. MORTON’S FORK, 10. WAZZENME & 11. LAND OF PLENTY
S1-4:
Banker – 6. CROCODILE ROCK
Selections – 7. HURSLEY, 5. ANNUS MIRABILIS, 3. DODGING BULLETS & 12. PEAKY BLINDERS
S1-4 BM84 Handicap
CROCODILE ROCK is a lightly-raced but highly-promising stayer. His only three Australian runs have been good and he appears very well-weighted here. Likely to press forward for Damien Oliver and may find the lead.
Consistent type HURSLEY looks better suited on this spacious track than at Caulfield, where he never seemed to be travelling well last start. Craig Williams to ride is a positive and is sure to be competitive.
ANNUS MIRABILIS has been freshened-up since easily winning over 2,800m on 1st January. Likely to be aimed towards longer races, but other than CROCODILE ROCK, this race lacks quality. Sure to get a cosy run, so has to be considered.
DODGING BULLETS has similar form lines to HURSLEY and maps well here. Jordan Childs to ride means less ‘dead weight’ to carry. Barrier 1 should ensure he settles just behind the leaders, so can’t dismiss.
PEAKY BLINDERS is flying at the moment and has the minimum weight. Unfortunately he has drawn poorly, so is going to need a lot of luck. Distance looks ideal and is the value runner.
SELECTIONS: 6. CROCODILE ROCK, 7. HURSLEY, 5. ANNUS MIRABILIS, 3. DODGING BULLETS & 12. PEAKY BLINDERS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. CROCODILE ROCK, 7. HURSLEY & 5. ANNUS MIRABILIS
S1-5: Multiple – 12. STAR TURN, 11. FLYING ARTIE & 1. TERRAVISTA
S1-6: Multiple – 8. DIVINE MR ARTIE, 5. HARD CALL & 12. GERVAIS
Classy colt STAR TURN is sure to be hard to beat. The 3YO is likely to be up with the leaders, so won’t be relying on too much luck. There is not much between him and FLYING ARTIE, so it would be no surprise to see them fight out the finish. Both horses have trialled well recently but my only real concern is they have both drawn near the inside rail, which has not been an advantage in recent weeks.
Veteran TERRAVISTA may not be the same force he once was but is too good to dismiss. He was second in this race last year and only beaten a nose by CHAUTAUQUA, so he must be seriously considered. One advantage is that he is drawn out wide and that could have a significant impact on the outcome.
Lightly-raced galloper SPIETH has previous experience down the straight having been narrowly beaten by MALAGUERRA last spring. Trialled well and has Hugh Bowman to ride, so is sure to be competitive.
Highly-talented sprinter SUPIDO comes in fresh. An overall record of 6 wins from 9 starts is impressive and has won down the straight previously. He has the advantage of barrier 10 and must be considered. Put in a nice trial at Cranbourne recently.
SELECTIONS: 12. STAR TURN, 11. FLYING ARTIE, 1. TERRAVISTA, 7. SPIETH & 8. SUPIDO
S1-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy
DIVINE MR ARTIE looks suited here at first try at this distance. All his recent runs are good and generally in better quality races than this. Barrier 1 and Craig Williams to ride would indicate that he is sure to be hard to beat.
Consistent galloper HARD CALL has solid recent form. Maps well with a cosy run and judging by his most recent win at Moonee Valley, the distance should suit.
GERVAIS is lightly-raced and trained on the track. His two most recent runs were full of merit and from barrier 8 he is likely to press forward and be difficult to get past. Damian Lane booked to ride is a bonus.
This looks the right type of race for ADIRONDACK and he is likely to get a soft run. Distance is not a problem and has solid form second-up. His most recent run when third at Caulfield 1,400m reads strong form for this.
O’LONERA is better known as a stayer but looked very forward in the parade ring first-up at Moonee Valley and ran third accordingly. He has won second-up previously so expect him to be strong at the finish.
SELECTIONS: 8. DIVINE MR ARTIE, 5. HARD CALL, 12. GERVAIS, 6. ADIRONDACK & 9. O’LONERA
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