 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
|
|---|---|
| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Blue Diamond Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Angus Armanasco Stakes
Impressive filly FUHRYK is racing in excellent form. Looked outstanding appearance-wise last start coming of a solid win over 1,200m. The step-up to 1,400m looks ideal and she looks the winner.
Consistent Darren Weir-trained filly JENNIFER LYNN is better over further and is drawn awkwardly in barrier 10 but always runs an honest race.
West Australian filly ELLICAZOOM is racing very consistently and has the ability to figure in the finish. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 9 from what is a difficult starting point, so will need some luck in running.
SAVANNA AMOUR is drawn to get an easy run and recent form has been solid.
OREGON'S DAY resumed with a pleasing first-up effort finishing second behind FUHRYK. Better over more ground but should be right in the finish.
SELECTIONS: 2. FUHRYK, 1. JENNIFER LYNN, 3. ELLICAZOOM, 8. SAVANNA AMOUR & 4. OREGON'S DAY
S1-2 Futurity Stakes
Evergreen performer BLACK HEART BART looks the one to beat here following his excellent win in a similar race on 11th February. The small field suits, barrier 6 is ideal and will be hard to hold out over the final 200m.
TURN ME LOOSE is the likely leader and looms as a serious danger to BLACK HEART BART. Looked as though he might be getting back to his best form in last start, even though the winner proved to be too good. Will be tougher to get past this time.
PALENTINO is going well but is desperate to get back to the bigger track at Flemington. Ran home well fresh behind BLACK HEART BART and looked as though he would derive great benefit from last run. Another that is likely to settle towards the rear and be charging home late.
Former Japanese star TOSEN STARDOM has demonstrated enough ability to be seriously considered here. His last 12 months have been dogged by injury, but it would be no surprise to see him powering home here. He is an imposing individual and must be included. Craig Williams and barrier 2 are both big positives.
Talented galloper ECUADOR is likely to settle third on the rail behind TURN ME LOOSE, so must be considered some chance. May be looking for further now, but stable is flying, so this horse deserves respect.
SELECTIONS: 1. BLACK HEART BART, 3. TURN ME LOOSE, 6. PALENTINO, 4. TOSEN STARDOM & 7. ECUADOR
S1-3 Peter Young Stakes
Darren Weir-trained boom galloper HUMIDOR looks ready to breakthrough. Can produce outstanding final sectionals, but also tends to settle back, so some luck is required. He might settle closer from barrier 5, if he does that would enhance his winning chances.
Star mare JAMEKA is heading towards G1 races over 2,000m and beyond but an encouraging first-up display behind BLACK HEART BART showed she might be ready to run a race here. I liked her appearance in the pre-race parade ring last start and she certainly didn’t disappoint out on the track. Loves this track and the distance is ideal. Likely to settle mid-field or worse and power home.
Highly-rated stayer THE UNITED STATES is heading towards the G1 Australian Cup over 2,000m and then to Sydney. I probably prefer him after this run, but he is too classy to leave out. Barrier 1 and Ben Melham to ride should ensure a cosy rails run from midfield.
Enigmatic galloper TOM MELBOURNE is hard to catch but his best form is good enough to be competitive here. He seems to be more relaxed this preparation and with superstar jockey Joao Moreira to ride, he must be included.
STRATUM STAR is an iron horse, having won in recent times in Perth at G1 level. Has the advantage of residual fitness over some his rivals and barrier 3 should ensure a soft run.
SELECTIONS: 9. HUMIDOR, 10. JAMEKA, 3. THE UNITED STATES, 8. TOM MELBOURNE & 1. STRATUM STAR
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 9. HUMIDOR
Selections – 10. JAMEKA, 3. THE UNITED STATES & 8. TOM MELBOURNE
S1-4:
Banker – 4. PARIAH
Selections – 1. PROPERTY, 11. CATCHY, 12. FORMALITY & 13. TULIP
In a race where there is very little between the top five or six chances, Sydney-trained galloper PARIAH profiles well. Caught the eye with a strong finish last start against PROPERTY and I expect barrier 11 will suit.
PROPERTY has an outstanding lead-up form and Hong Kong-based owners have booked Joao Moreira to ride. Will get a great run from barrier 3 and can really quicken, so expect him to look the winner at some stage.
Exciting filly CATCHY has impressed at all three starts and has held favouritism since early markets were released. She looks like a three-year-old filly in the parade ring and should be in the finish. Barrier 13 is probably not ideal, but expect her to be powering home late.
FORMALITY and TULIP are both classy fillies and look to have undeniable chances. Both have strong lead-up form and top class riders. Although TULIP maps better than FORMALITY, I have a slight leaning towards FORMALITY.
SELECTIONS: 4. PARIAH, 1. PROPERTY, 11. CATCHY, 12. FORMALITY & 13. TULIP
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 4. PARIAH, 1. PROPERTY & 11. CATCHY
S1-5: Multiple – 3. EXTREME CHOICE, 2. FELL SWOOP & 10. HELLBENT
S1-6: Multiple – 2. SILENT SEDITION, 4. THAMES COURT & 1. MISS ROSE DE LAGO
S1-5 Oakleigh Plate
Star three-year-old EXTREME CHOICE has been primed for this first-up assignment on his home track. Reported to be flying in trackwork and astute trainer Mick Price would have set this as a target race some time ago.
Classy sprinter FELL SWOOP is reported to be in great order for his return. He has performed extremely well at this level over the past 12 months and looms as the main danger to EXTREME CHOICE.
HELLBENT is inconsistent but is back to his favourite track. He is renowned for ‘playing up’ badly in the pre-race parade, but can produce explosive sectionals at his best. Judging by his recent appearance I expect him to be in peak condition for this race. Barrier 13 should enable him to settle back and rush home.
Classy mare SHEIDEL races well at the track, has been freshened for this and looks nicely weighted. Stable is flying, so she must be considered. The Joao Moreira-factor could come into play from a low draw.
Talented galloper KAEPERNICK looks well-suited here at the weights. He has solid form carrying big weights in Sydney. Trialled nicely on 6th February and expect him to settle back and run on strongly.
SELECTIONS: 3. EXTREME CHOICE, 2. FELL SWOOP, 10. HELLBENT, 5. SHEIDEL & 4. KAEPERNICK
S1-6 Mannerism Stakes
Quality mare SILENT SEDITION is clearly the one to beat after an excellent first-up second at Caulfield two weeks ago. On that occasion she drew wide and may have got further back than anticipated, but rushed home late. Barrier 6 this race ensures a better run.
THAMES COURT comes through the same lead-up race as SILENT SEDITION. On that run it is hard to see her beating SILENT SEDITION, but her form last preparation was solid in good races. Barrier 3 helps and expect her to be in the finish.
Classy mare MISS ROSE DE LAGO performed below expectations first-up at G1 level. However this is much easier and I expect her to press forward and attempt to control the tempo. Will be hard to beat if she bounces back to her best. Barrier 8 probably leaves Damien Oliver with little option but to look for the lead.
In form mare DOMINO VITALE has the home track advantage and from barrier 4 is likely to use her fitness edge and press forward. She could be hard to get past as she runs a strong 1,600m, with five wins at the distance.
Lightly-raced mare ABBEY MARIE resumed in the same race as SILENT SEDITION and caught the eye with her late finish.
SELECTIONS: 2. SILENT SEDITION, 4. THAMES COURT, 1. MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 8. DOMINO VITALE & 3. ABBEY MARIE
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
