 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai Super Saturday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Mahab Al Shimaal
MUARRAB won the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal with ease this time last year and is strongly fancied to replicate that success in this weekend’s renewal. The son of OASIS DREAM, now trained by Maria Ritchie, won by more than five lengths that day and followed up three weeks later with a neck victory in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. However, he’s been forced to settle for second in his last two races, with REYNALDOTHEWIZARD landing the Listed Dubawi Stakes and COOL COWBOY winning the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint.
All three line up again here over 1,200m and it’s difficult to see anything else entering the places, with MUARRAB and COOL COWBOY the two expected to fight out the finish. There was just a neck between them when Doug Watson’s COOL COWBOY got up to beat favourite MUARRAB on the dirt last time, and the latter isn’t certain to reverse the places this time round. But both horses forged well clear of the third that day and it would be a surprise to see the 11YO REYNALDOTHEWIZARD stay with the younger duo on the straight. The Satish Seemar’s veteran rarely runs a bad race but looks pencilled in for third.
WILD DUDE finished third in the Listed Dubawi Stakes and the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint at the turn of the year. They were both good performances, but he has since finished well down the field in a 1,400m Meydan handicap and Michael Halford’s entry looks out of his depth here.
It may be left to Caspar Fownes’ DUNDONNELL to give the three protagonists the most to think about, having finished second on his Meydan debut just two weeks ago. Fownes watched his entry narrowly beaten off by Godolphin’s COMICAS and the two go head-to-head once more here.
Elsewhere, MORAWIJ landed the Listed Jebel Ali Sprint last month, following a good second at the same track, but he looks thrown in at the deep end here. HIGH ON LIFE was third in that Listed race but again looks set to struggle, as do DIOS CORRIDA and rank outside RAAFID, who finished well back on his recent Meydan debut.
SELECTIONS: 3. COOL COWBOY, 9. MUARRAB, 5. REYNALDOTHEWIZARD & 2. DUNDONNELL
S1-2 Dubai City Of Gold
Anyone who witnessed POSTPONED canter to victory in this G2 2,410m prize last year will find it pretty hard to oppose the globe-trotting 6YO 12 months on. Roger Varian’s son of DUBAWI looked unbeatable on his travels last season, until finally tasting defeat on his final start in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. That disappointing fifth place finish behind FOUND was his first defeat in seven starts, which included two victories over this course and distance. He used this race last year as a stepping stone to the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic and connections are opting to follow the same path. It’s very hard to envisage anything other than a victory for POSTPONED, who will relish the fast turf course and has apparently thrived once again in the Dubai sunshine.
PRIZE MONEY, REMBRANDT VAN RIJN and DYLAN MOUTH fought out a tremendous finish to a valuable 2,435m handicap at this track earlier last month. Only a neck and a head separated the three that day with PRIZE MONEY holding on having looked to have improved for his first run at Meydan back in January. He looks the most likely to chase home POSTPONED as he is improving at a rate of knots having been gelded last summer. The fitting of a hood has also brought about plenty of improvement and he looks sure to carry on his progression.
DYLAN MOUTH is another who will benefit from being race fit and shouldn’t be too far behind PRIZE MONEY, having raced all the way to the line last time. However, both he and REMBRANDT VAN RIJN will struggle to reverse the form with PRIZE MONEY on these terms.
The interesting unexposed horse in the race is the once highly-regarded EMOTIONLESS for trainer Charlie Appleby. Unbeaten on his first two starts as a two-year-old, he injured himself in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes in 2015 at Newmarket and seemed a shadow of his former self in two starts last season. Connections opted to switch this US-bred to dirt for his two runs so far as a 4YO and he showed his best form over 2,000m in a handicap here last time. He switches back to turf here and is tried over an extra 400m for the first time, but there is no doubting he is a very talented horse on his day. That said, he shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough to upset POSTPONED.
SELECTIONS: 10. POSTPONED, 4. PRIZE MONEY, 6. DYLAN MOUTH & 7. EMOTIONLESS
S1-3 Burj Nahaar
This 1,600m G3 dirt contest went to Dubai-based trainer Doug Watson’s COOL COWBOY 12 months ago and the US-born handler saddles four this year as he bids for a repeat success.
The highest rated of his quartet is the 4YO filly POLAR RIVER who had such a great debut season last year, winning four of her five races. She has been disappointing this season, though, and looked particuarly moody last time in a G2 contest over course and distance. If she could recapture her 2015/16 form, she would be a huge danger but it requires a big leap of faith to support her at present.
STUNNED won a 1,400m handicap last month and Patrick Dobbs renews the association. He’s a gutsy horse but is unproven over 1,600m. Watson’s other runners, NATHR and SHAMAAL NIBRAS, both need to improve to be in with a chance of winning.
The most in-form horse in the line-up is STORMARDAL from Ismail Mohammed’s yard. He has won four of his last five races, all over course and distance. His last victory in December was very impressive and he’s been given a break by his trainer since then. Although this is a step up in class, he loves it around here and his last two performances warrant this step up to G3 level.
HEAVY METAL is a big danger even though he was beaten by STORMARDAL on 1st December. Since then he has improved and won really well last time with a few of these in behind. One thing against him is that he is now a 7YO and all eight winners of this race were six or younger.
That may count against the 8YO LE BERNARDIN as well, but he won a G2 here in January by two lengths and can never be ruled out at his home track.
ROSS finished second to COOL COWBOY in this event last year and may be able to sneak into the places again. A win ratio of three from 21 starts is a fairly poor return, but he seemed to be coming back to form when second to STUNNED last time.
POWER BLADE represents South Korea and he hasn’t been disgraced in his two starts at Meydan, while Mike de Kock’s LINDO AMOR has some solid form but is yet to get his head in front. Saeed bin Suroor won this race four years running between 2011 and 2014, so there is certain to be interested in his ALABASTER. However, that one’s best form has been over 2,000m so there has to be a slight worry about the step back in trip.
SELECTIONS: 1. STORMARDAL, 5. HEAVY METAL, 4. ROSS & 10. LE BERNARDIN
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. STORMARDAL, 5. HEAVY METAL, 4. ROSS & 10. LE BERNARDIN
S1-4: Multiple – 7. JUNGLE CAT, 1. BACCARAT, 11. SIR MAXIMILIAN & 4. FINAL VENTURE
S1-4 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint
BACCARAT and JUNGLE CAT represent a strong challenge from Godolphin in the 1,200m Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint. Only a neck split the pair in a handicap over course and distance in January, with the former just coming out on top to take the race. But JUNGLE CAT could reverse that form here. He was giving weight away to his rival that day and, despite being ridden on the front end throughout, he showed a good attitude to keep running all the way to the line to finish second. JUNGLE CAT had to settle for the silver medal again when beaten by impressive sprinter ERTIJAAL over 1,000m in the G3 Meydan Sprint. That form looks strong, though, as many are expecting ERTIJAAL to land the G1 Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup Day.
FINAL VENTURE was a winner last time out, landing a handicap over course and distance, and is fancied to go close again. However, the Godolphin duo would have the beating of him on all known form.
French-raider THE RIGHT MAN is the only other horse coming into this race off the back of a win. He won a G3 contest at Maisons-Laffitte in good style back in November. That success came over a stamina-testing straight 1,200m and he shaped as though the continuous of 1,200m would suit. However, all of his form is on soft ground and it remains to be seen whether he will handle faster conditions at Meydan.
SIR MAXIMILIAN makes the shortlist after his third in a handicap at the start of February. He didn't get the clearest of passages that day and finished strongly, suggesting a bit more luck and the step up to 1,200m could see him challenge.
KRYPTON FACTOR, winner of the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen five years ago, rolled back the years to finish clear of JAMESIE and SIR MAXIMILIAN two starts back. However, he's still not quite the horse he once was and others appeal more.
Mike de Kock’s TAHANEE is an interesting runner. This will be the first time she runs over 1,200m, with all her starts so far coming over further. She showed an impressive turn of foot over 1,400m last time out, finishing fast to take third place. Whether she’ll be sharp enough to get amongst the places in this field is questionable, though.
SELECTIONS: 7. JUNGLE CAT, 1. BACCARAT, 11. SIR MAXIMILIAN & 4. FINAL VENTURE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 7. JUNGLE CAT, 1. BACCARAT & 11. SIR MAXIMILIAN
S1-5: Multiple – 3. MOVE UP, 5. SPECIAL FIGHTER & 6. SECOND SUMMER
S1-6: Multiple – 8. PROMISING RUN, 1. DECORATED KNIGHT & 10. ERTIJAAL
S1-5 Al Maktoum Challenge R3
Trainer Saeed bin Suroor has won three of the previous four runnings of the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 run over 2,000m, and will be hoping to add to his collection with MOVE UP. The son of DUBAWI earned himself a long break after getting the better of ARAB SPRING to land the G3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot in October. There may have only been a neck in it, but the fact MOVE UP got back up to win having been headed made the result more impressive. If he can transfer his form to the dirt, he should be hard to beat.
SPECIAL FIGHTER will be looking to win the race for the second successive year when representing New Zealander Maria Ritchie just days after she was awarded her licence. The 5YO has not been seen since finishing fourth behind CALIFORNIA CHROME in the G1 Dubai World Cup back in last March, having missed prior arrangements this year due to a dirty nose.
FURIA CRUZADA endured a disappointing spell with Newmarket trainer John Gosden, but enjoyed a Meydan debut to remember last month when winning the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2. The only mare in the nine-runner field secured victory under the tutelage of young Italian jockey Antonio Fresu on her return to dirt, having won two of her three G1 prizes on the surface. She is clearly enjoying sunnier climates at Erwan Charpy’s stable, but she will need to improve again to go close in round three of the Dubai World Cup qualifier.
Doug Watson’s SECOND SUMMER finished just a nose behind FURIA CRUZADA in that race but could well reverse the form having allowed her first run that day. She was tiring rapidly as the winning post crept up but got the better of the photo finish.
LANI knows all about competing on the big stages, having run in all three legs of the US Triple Crown, finishing third in the G1 Belmont Stakes. The 3YO colt also has winning form at Meydan, having beaten hot favourite POLAR RIVER, unbeaten in four starts at the time, in the G2 UAE Derby last March.
LONG RIVER was second behind LE BERNARDIN at a big price in January but failed to build on that when finishing well down the field in the race FURIA CRUZADA won last time out.
Doug Watson’s MIZBAH won a handicap by seven lengths back in January but has been well beaten twice since, while TRIPLE NINE also failed to build on a good first run last time out.
SELECTIONS: 3. MOVE UP, 5. SPECIAL FIGHTER, 6. SECOND SUMMER & 4. FURIA CRUZADA
S1-6 Jebel Hatta
The royal blue silks of Godolphin have been carried to victory in three of the last four renewals of the G1 Jebel Hatta. PROMISING RUN and FOLKSWOOD carry those colours in the G1 1,800m contest this year and both look set to play a big part.
FOLKSWOOD, trained by Charlie Appleby, has twice run well at the track recently. The step back from 2,000m to 1,800m worked out well last time, with the 4YO finishing first, two lengths clear of ELLEVAL in a competitive handicap. Saturday represents a big step up in class, though, and he will need to put in a career best to win this.
On all known form, the Saeed bin Suroor-trained PROMISING RUN would be the pick of the two Godolphin runners. A G2 winner in both the UK and at Meydan, he has the form to suggest he could go close at this level. He landed the G2 Al Rashidiya over course and distance two starts back, so there are no worries about track and trip. The booking of 2016 Longines World’s Best Jockey Ryan Moore is also a positive.
Mike de Kock is another man to look out for on Dubai Super Saturday. The South African has trained four winners of the G1 Jebel Hatta and is well represented this year with SANSHAAWES, ERTIJAAL and LIGHT THE LIGHTS.
LIGHT THE LIGHTS could only manage fifth in the G2 Zabeel Mile last time out, but that was a very hot contest and his two starts previous to that were promising. He landed the Listed Singspiel Stakes over course and distance on his Dubai debut, before finishing second to the aforementioned PROMISING RUN in the G2 Al Rashidiya.
ERTIJAAL is maybe Mike de Kock’s best chance of landing his fifth Jebel Hatta. Though slightly disappointing behind stablemate LIGHT THE LIGHTS last time out, that was his first run for 10 months and he should be fitter now. He was third in this race last year and is expected to challenge again this year.
British raider DECORATED KNIGHT is an interesting runner for Roger Charlton. He has won three of his last four starts, including a G3 contest over 1,800m, and his trainer chose this race over a tilt at Lingfield’s Winter Derby in the UK last Saturday. While he’ll have to continue on his upward curve to challenge here, he could still be improving and looks a big danger.
MUFFRI’HA, another hopeful from the UK, has shaped with promise in both of his recent starts at Meydan this season. He finished third in the G2 Cape Verdi Stakes and the G2 Balanchine Stakes and has fair place claims again here.
4YO filly EPSOM ICON is open to improvement, but has maybe struggled with Meydan’s quick ground thus far. All of her best form in the UK has come on a softer surface, so there would have to be question marks over the ground here.
SELECTIONS: 8. PROMISING RUN, 1. DECORATED KNIGHT, 10. ERTIJAAL & 5. LIGHT THE LIGHTS
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