 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Australian Cup Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes
ESHTIRAAK is a stunning individual that keeps getting the job done. Never really impresses all that much, but just keeps winning. Should get an easy run from barrier 1 and just needs some luck to be in the finish.
Talented colt ASPECT is drawn a little awkwardly in barrier 9, so probably will settle back in the field. His run in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes was solid, giving every indication that 1,400m will suit.
Hawkes-trained colt GROUNDBREAK comes through a solid form race at Flemington on 18th February won by the talented colt DUCIMUS. On that occasion he drew barrier 1 and was always in an awkward spot but his final 200m was fantastic.
Sydney-trained visitor COLESBERG gives every indication that he is looking for further now. His most recent run in a G2 company at Randwick was on a heavy track and he never looked comfortable. He did finish off well though, so expect him to be strong here. Barrier 5 and Hugh Bowman to ride add some confidence.
Godolphin-trained colt TOGA PICTA won nicely at his only start. Bred to handle the rise in distance and this field is not overly strong, so it will be no surprise to see him competitive here.
SELECTIONS: 3. ESHTIRAAK, 1. ASPECT, 5. GROUNDBREAK, 2. COLESBERG & 7. TOGA PICTA
S1-2 Kewney Stakes
Classy filly I AM A STAR is already a G1 winner and drops in class here. This is her third run this campaign, she should get a soft run from barrier 4 and she looms as the one to beat.
OREGON’S DAY is well drawn in barrier 3 and finally gets a chance to settle handy. Not having to work as hard early in the race should allow her to finish the race off strongly.
ELLICAZOOM finished next to OREGON’S DAY last start at Caulfield, so expect a similar effort here. I expect her to press forward from barrier 9 and, providing she is able to slot in, she has a definite chance.
KENEDNA had fared badly at the barrier draw, which probably means she will be ridden back. This will make her task more difficult, but she is classy and expect her to be rushing home.
SELECTIONS: 2. I AM A STAR, 5. OREGON’S DAY, 3. ELLICAZOOM & 4. KENEDNA
S1-3 Matron Stakes
MISS ROSE DE LAGO is not racing at her peak but barrier 3 gives her a chance to bounce back to her best. Likely to get all the favours from the draw and will be hard to beat.
CIRCULAR has Joao Moreira to ride from barrier 1 so that brings her into contention. Her Sydney form is solid and this race is not up to the previous renewals, so she must be considered.
NURSE KITCHEN is a lightly raced filly and very classy. Sure to be much fitter for her first-up run, but may need some luck from barrier 12 to win. Likely to settle back, but has definite claims.
PURE PRIDE, SEBRING DREAM and LADY SELKIRK all have a chance.
SELECTIONS: 1. MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 9. CIRCULAR, 4. NURSE KITCHEN, 14. PURE PRIDE & 15. SEBRING DREAM
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 1. MISS ROSE DE LAGO
Selections – 9. CIRCULAR, 4. NURSE KITCHEN, 14. PURE PRIDE & 15. SEBRING DREAM
S1-4: Banker – 9. STAR TURN
Selections – 6. EXTREME CHOICE, 2. SPIETH, 7. ILLUSTRIOUS LAD & 8. TIVACI
S1-4 Newmarket Handicap
STAR TURN looked the likely winner last start in the G1 Black Caviar Lightning but didn’t really finish the race off as expected. Sure to be fitter this time and 116lbs is appealing in an even race.
When FLYING ARTIE was withdrawn during the week trainer Mick Price replaced him with 3YO stablemate EXTREME CHOICE and booked Joao Moreira to ride. Has a great record of 4 wins from 7 starts and should have improved from a first up third at G1 level.
SPIETH is racing well and bursting to win a good race and this might be his chance. Barrier 1 could be a problem because he tends to get back, so he might need luck over the final 200m. Hugh Bowman to ride is a bonus.
ILLUSTRIOUS LAD looks well weighted on 117lbs and barrier 5 gives him the chance to find whatever part of the track he wants. Is a definite chance.
TIVACI profiles well and has drawn barrier 6. He has won down the straight before and looks to have an ideal weight.
SELECTIONS: 9. STAR TURN, 6. EXTREME CHOICE, 2. SPIETH, 7. ILLUSTRIOUS LAD & 8. TIVACI
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 9. STAR TURN, 6. EXTREME CHOICE & 2. SPIETH
S1-5: Multiple – 10. HUMIDOR, 3. THE UNITED STATES & 11. JAMEKA
S1-6: Multiple – 12. ROCKET TOMMY, 2. SHAF & 11. SUPER FUN
HUMIDOR is the one to beat. He is likely to settle in a suitable position around mid-field and is reaching peak fitness. He has an explosive sprint, so I expect him to be charging home.
THE UNITED STATES is a proven G1 performer and looks like getting a nice run behind the leaders from his draw for in-form jockey Ben Melham.
JAMEKA is a top class filly, but gets back and then will have to make a sustained run out wide to win. If Hugh Bowman decides to press forward then she will have to hold off some classy horses that have had an easier run. Either way it will be tough, but she has the class to win.
From barrier 2, STRATUM STAR seems assured of a dream run in the race. He defeated his main opposition here last time out at Caulfield, so he looms as the one they have to get beat.
EXOSPHERIC has not fared well with barrier 10, which probably means he will go back and that makes winning a more difficult task.
SELECTIONS:10. HUMIDOR, 3. THE UNITED STATES, 11. JAMEKA, 1. STRATUM STAR & 6. EXOSPHERIC
S1-6 BM90 Handicap
ROCKET TOMMY showed blistering, sustained speed to win here at his last start over the straight 1,100m. Freshened-up again and the challenge for him is to repeat that effort.
SHAF is an interesting runner drawn in the middle of the track. By this time of the day it will be obvious what part of the straight course is best. He has won here before and is good fresh. His form towards the end of 2016 was solid in better races than this and the stable is in-form.
SUPER FUN has solid form and Joao Moreira to ride. It is interesting to note that he has ran a win and a second when fourth up from a spell, so it would be no surprise to see him competitive here.
Under-rated sprinter ORUJO often produces big runs, yet seldom wins. Ben Melham to ride is a plus and he should be considered.
LONROCKSTAR could improve off his recent modest form. He goes best when on very firm tracks and when the speed is hot. He seems certain to get both a good surface and a fast tempo here, so he must be included.
SELECTIONS: 12. ROCKET TOMMY, 2. SHAF, 11. SUPER FUN, 7. ORUJO & 14. LONROCKSTAR
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