 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Golden Slipper Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Ranvet Stakes
The one to beat is HARTNELL as he finally finds a race without champion mare WINX. It might pay to forgive the poor run last start and go on his previous excellent form which includes chasing home WINX and defeating JAMEKA at Flemington.
THE UNITED STATES loves racing in Sydney at this time of the year, and his form is first class. Seemed a little disappointing at Flemington, but that was a strong race and the track was firm. He will be much better suited here on a softer track.
OUR IVANHOWE could be the surprise packet, the likelihood of a soft track suits and he seems to race well in this direction. Fresh and must be respected.
SOFIA ROSA won last year's G1 Australian Oaks, easily beating JAMEKA and loves soft conditions. Both her recent runs in New Zealand have been excellent so she must be included.
STRATUM STAR is an iron-horse and continues to race well at the highest level. Not sure about him in very soft conditions, but is too good to leave out.
SELECTIONS: 1. HARTNELL, 5. THE UNITED STATES, 4. OUR IVANHOWE, 8. SOFIA ROSA & 3. STRATUM STAR
S1-2 George Ryder Stakes
This could be the day that WINX looks most vulnerable, facing some new and interesting opposition. Chris Waller's champion mare has been winning easily but might get a competitive workout here. Still, she has won an amazing 15 consecutive races, has proven she handles wet ground and should be able to control this race from barrier 8.
A step up in distance is intriguing for top sprinter CHAUTAUQUA, but he does look like he needs further now. Jockey Tommy Berry will probably settle last and look to test WINX late.
LE ROMAIN was too good for CHAUTAUQUA over 1,300m last time out and is another that could challenge WINX. Fit and in-form, he will press forward and be tough to catch. Suited by the step up to 1,500m.
Godolphin's HAURAKI is a classy and strong type, so must be respected, and the distance looks suitable second-up.
SELECTIONS: 8. WINX, 1. CHAUTAUQUA, 2. LE ROMAIN & 3. HAURAKI
S1-3 Rosehill Guineas
The is the third run this preparation for future star INFERENCE after he stormed home out wide to win last start at Randwick over 1,600m. This distance suits him better and he likes soft ground. He is the one to beat.
Last year’s G1 Victoria Derby winner PRIZED ICON looks to have a great chance here. Last start he ran an excellent second in Melbourne and is now looking for this distance. Handles soft ground as well and with the likelihood of heavy ground that could be key.
Talented New Zealand-trained stayer GINGERNUTS is in great form. His most recent win in the G1 New Zealand Derby over 2,400m was full of merit. I suspect he may be better suited over further than this and that the upcoming G1 Australian Derby at Randwick is his ultimate goal but it would be no surprise to see him running on strongly.
This is their biggest test so far for talented trio COMIN’ THROUGH, ANAHEIM and IMPAVIDO but expect each of them to be competitive.
This distance suits IMPAVIDO and last start at Randwick it looked like he was going to test INFERENCE but was held up badly and lost momentum on the home turn.
SELECTIONS: 4. INFERENCE, 1. PRIZED ICON, 2. GINGERNUTS, 9. IMPAVIDO & 5. COMIN’ THROUGH
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 4. INFERENCE
Selections – 1. PRIZED ICON, 2. GINGERNUTS, 9. IMPAVIDO & 5. COMIN’ THROUGH
S1-4: Banker – 9. CATCHY
Selections – 15. HOUTZEN, 12. SHE WILL REIGN, 13. FROLIC & 1. PARIAH
Lining up the Melbourne and Sydney form for the G1 Golden Slipper was already tricky, but heavy rain and a rain-affected going have thrown betting for the race into disarray.
David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained filly and the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes winner CATCHY is being underestimated and can cause an upset over some more fancied runners. CATCHY is still unbeaten but most importantly she has form on soft tracks and she looks like getting an ideal strong pace. She will be finishing strongly for jockey Craig Williams.
Another unbeaten filly, the Listed Magic Millions 2YO Classic winner HOUTZEN, might be the hardest to beat. She will press forward from a wide gate but has the speed to cross and control the race.
SHE WILL REIGN has been favourite in pre-post markets for a long time and still ran well last start. Ben Melham will look for cover from a wide gate but she should still run on strongly late.
Hong Kong-bound trainer Michael Freedman has a top chance with FROLIC after she stormed last SHE WILL REIGN in wet conditions at Randwick last start, she gets similar conditions here.
PARIAH, TULIP and FORMALITY all have excellent form and application of blinkers could bring VERANILLO into reckoning.
SELECTIONS: 9. CATCHY, 15. HOUTZEN, 12. SHE WILL REIGN, 13. FROLIC & 1. PARIAH
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple –9. CATCHY, 15. HOUTZEN & 12. SHE WILL REIGN
S1-5: Multiple – 6. REDZEL, 12. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION & 3. ENGLISH
S1-6: Multiple – 7. VANDANCER, 5. HAPPY HANNAH & 4. ALEGRIA
S1-5 The Galaxy
REDZEL looks well suited here after an excellent second to ENGLISH first-up. He now meets ENGLISH 2lbs better and most significantly drops in actual weight he has to carry. Has natural speed and handles soft conditions.
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION carries just 111lbs, he is a winner on soft and has form around STAR TURN. First-up and from the powerful Snowden stable, he must be respected.
ENGLISH will be hard to beat, but goes up in weight and class. This is a high quality sprinter though, so must be respected.
SUPIDO is a lightly raced sprinter which looks suited here, especially with only 118lbs. Handles soft conditions and has Craig Williams to ride.
Another lightly raced galloper from Victoria, FAATINAH, is well placed here following a second in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. Likes soft conditions and looks well weighted on 120lbs.
SELECTIONS: 6. REDZEL, 12. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, 3. ENGLISH, 8. SUPIDO & 5. FAATINAH
S1-6 Epona Stakes
Lightly-raced mare VANDANCER seems well suited at 1,900m. Handles wet conditions and is very strong. Chased home ELLE LOU and ran third last start, but I suspect she may be able to reverse that finishing order here.
HAPPY HANNAH is an interesting runner. I regard her as possibly the best horse in the race, but my concern is a genuine heavy track, as she may not be as well suited as others on wet ground. Lovely first-up run at Flemington on 4th March and is fitter now.
ALEGRIA comes through the same race as VANDANCER, where she was only beaten half a length. Like VANDANCER, she is better suited with the rise in distance, so expect her to be hard to beat.
Chris Waller-trained mare ELLE LOU revelled in the heavy conditions last start at Randwick when she powered home along the inside to gain victory. Not really bred to stay, but hard to fault recent form.
SONG AND LAUGHTER has to be respected. She is racing consistently, this distance suits and she loves wet conditions.
SELECTIONS: 7. VANDANCER, 5. HAPPY HANNAH, 4. ALEGRIA, 2. ELLE LOU & 6. SONG AND LAUGHTER
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