 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 UAE Derby
Meydan has been battered by storms ahead of the G2 UAE Derby over 1,900m, but Saeed bin Suroor won’t mind if his aptly named THUNDER SNOW comes home in front. The 3YO son of HELMET ended 2016 with victory at Saint Cloud when leading home a nine-strong field to land the G1 Criterium International with ease. He followed that victory up with an equally comfortable success in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas last month and should take all the beating with that seasonal opener under his belt. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor has won this race seven times, but was last successful in 2011 and will be hopeful of ending his recent dry spell here.
EPICHARIS, who is unbeaten on dirt, looks the main danger as he bids to land back-to-back successes for Japan following LANI’s victory in 2016. He surged to the top of the ‘Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby’ points list with a victory in a listed race at Tokyo and was subsequently invited to take part in the Derby.
Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien won this race in 2012 and 2013 and he will be hoping Ryan Moore can bag him a hat-trick of wins on board LANCASTER BOMBER. He finished second behind stablemate CHURCHILL in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket, before following that up with a second place finished in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. However, these conditions are an unknown and he could lack a bit of sharpness against his main race-fit protagonists having been off the track since November.
Mike de Kock’s FAWREE put in a superb performance against Doug Watson’s BEE JERSEY in a maiden here in January and certainly has the talent to line up in this field. He scooted clear of the field that day, but went berserk in the gate when trying to build on that run next time out, unseating rider Bernard Fayd’Herbe at the start. BEE JERSEY finished second behind THUNDER SNOW in February, so the form is strong and if Mike de Kock’s entry can put his gate problems behind him, he can go close.
Todd Pletcher’s MASTER PLAN should be suited by the step up in trip following victories in USA and ought to be a lively player.
But Saeed bin Suroor’s second string TOP SCORE looks opposable despite handling the surface, with the extended trip not sure to suit.
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a great record at the track and his versatile colt FLY AT DAWN could prove best of the rest and will certainly be race fit.
COSMO CHARLIE made all in the middle leg of the UAE Triple Crown over course and distance but his task has been made that bit more difficult after being drawn in stall 15.
SELECTIONS: 13. THUNDER SNOW, 6. FAWREE, 10. EPICHARIS, 3. LANCASTER BOMBER & 2. MASTER PLAN
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: UAE (C2)
S1-2 Al Quoz Sprint
The G1 Al Quoz Sprint was initially has been extended from the previous 1,000m to 1,200m this year, but still features some of the fastest sprinters in the world. This is a truly international affair, with the last four winners coming from Australia, Ireland, Hong Kong and South Africa. But this year it could be the turn of the home team.
ERTIJAAL has won six of his last seven starts, the only defeat coming in this race 12 months ago when second to BUFFERING. Although the drop back from 1,200m to 1,000m has clearly suited, the son of OASIS DREAM has no problem with this distance. He has been hugely impressive on both starts this season and Jim Crowley will be on board. It has to be a positive that he arrives here fit from a winter campaign and he really should take all the beating.
Henry Candy had a fantastic time with LIMATO last season, although he did disappoint in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile on his last start. This 5YO has solid form over a variety of distances, but his best display last year was his win in the G1 July Cup at Newmarket over 1,200m. He needs a decent surface to be at his best, so should be perfectly at home on the Meydan turf. The only worry with him is this is his first start since that Breeders’ Cup Mile outing, which may leave him at a slight fitness disadvantage.
Godolphin are always to be feared at this meeting, so JUNGLE CAT cannot be ruled out. Charlie Appleby’s horse won comfortably on Dubai Super Saturday here earlier this month, beating stablemate BACCARAT in the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint. That was an impressive display, but he was beaten by ERTIJAAL two starts back – although that was over the minimum 1,000m. William Buick takes the ride and they shouldn’t be too far away at the finish.
AMAZING KIDS from Hong Kong must be a big danger. ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira won this race three years ago with AMBER SKY and he looks to have another major chance here. This son of FALKIRK has some decent forms at Sha Tin, winning a G3 company back in January over 1,000m and will certainly be race fit.
Aidan O’Brien has never won this race, but he will be attempting to do so for the first time with WASHINGTON DC. The ZOFFANY colt ran some decent races last season without winning. He can’t be ruled out, but this might be too hot a race for his seasonal reappearance.
BACCARAT has a bit to find to turn things around with JUNGLE CAT. He is a good horse on his day, though. There doesn’t appear to be much between the remainder of the field. FINAL VENTURE is a handicapper so will probably be out of his depth here, while MEDICEAN MAN is better over 1,000m.
SELECTIONS: 6. ERTIJAAL, 11. LIMATO, 5. JUNGLE CAT, 1. AMAZING KIDS & 12. BACCARAT
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: UAE (C3)
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 6. ERTIJAAL
Selections – 11. LIMATO, 5. JUNGLE CAT, 1. AMAZING KIDS & 12. BACCARAT
S1-3: Banker – 14. MIND YOUR BISCUITS
Selections – 2. MORAWIJ, 6. MUARRAB, 11. ST JOE BAY & 5. COOL COWBOY
S1-3 Dubai Golden Shaheen
Rookie trainer Chad Summers is responsible for the MIND YOUR BISCUITS in this year’s G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen over 1,200m. The improving 4YO ran in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint over the same distance, coming from last to second in the home straight, and that is some of the strongest form on offer. He’s a horse that is likely to be held up again and will need some luck in running to win, but his turn of foot is unrivalled and he looks the most obvious winner.
ST JOE BAY could be the one to give him a lead into the race. Since the 5YO was gelded he has won three races in a row, including the G2 Palos Verdes Stakes at Santa Anita. All of those wins have come from impressive front-running displays and he’s likely to be ridden positively and expected to go close again.
COOL COWBOY could be one of those battling it out in the finish too. After a disappointing run when finishing down the field in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 over 1,600m, he got back to winning ways in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over course and distance. He showed a good attitude to wear down MUARRAB, who re-opposes here, in the closing stages and looks a big danger again.
British champion jockey Jim Crowley will partner MUARRAB, who could manage no better than sixth in the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal three weeks ago. For a horse that has had more success when ridden on the pace, it was no surprise to see him struggling having failed to get a good position early on that day. The 8YO’s last win came in this race 12 months ago, and on that basis he cannot be written off.
There would be a huge cheer if REYNALDOTHEWIZARD could work his magic to land this race again. The 11YO won this contest back in 2013, just one of a remarkable eight victories over course and distance. He was fourth to MUARRAB in this last year, despite rounding the home turn in last place with a wall of horses in front of him. He always seems to finish off his races strongly and holds fair claims of finishing in the places.
MORAWIJ also makes the shortlist after winning the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal. Three of the last five winners of the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen were successful in that race and the manner of his victory was impressive too. The 7YO kept finding more out in front and looks a good bet to go hard from the off and finish among the places.
SELECTIONS: 14. MIND YOUR BISCUITS, 2. MORAWIJ, 6. MUARRAB, 11. ST JOE BAY & 5. COOL COWBOY
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: USA (C1)
S1-4 Dubai Turf
Sadly a late setback has prevented last year’s G1 1,800m Dubai Turf champion REAL STEEL from defending his crown, but his absence still doesn’t make solving this intriguing puzzle any easier.
The most obvious starting point is French raider ZARAK who ran out a smart winner of the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes over 2,000m here last month. That run would have put the son of DUBAWI spot on for a tilt at this valuable prize for trainer Alain de Royer Dupre who is a past master at plundering valuable international prizes like this. Even though this smart 4YO is yet to win at G1 level, he twice chased home ALMANZOR last season, most notably when second in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m despite encountering traffic problems.
On paper ZARAK may not have quite achieved as much as Great Britain raider RIBCHESTER, but the fact that he has a run under his belt gives him an advantage here. RIBCHESTER seemed to improve with every start last campaign and followed a decent third in the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m with a G3 win over 1,400m at Royal Ascot. After a fast finishing third in the G1 Sussex Stakes over 1,600m at Glorious Goodwood, RIBCHESTER finally landed his G1 when scoring in the Jacques le Marois over 1,600m at Deauville. The last time we saw him in action was at Ascot last October when only just held by MINDING in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1,600m. The step up in trip to 1,800m should suit and there is no reason to think that he won’t improve, having been given time to mature from three to four. If there is a concern, it is whether he will be fully fit to do himself justice on his first start of the season.
Another British raider sure to be in the mix is William Haggas’ MUTAKAYYEF who has improved beyond recognition in four starts since being gelded. The pick of the 6YO’s form last season saw him finished close up behind POSTPONED in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes over 2,080m and within a length of TEPIN in the G1 Woodbine Mile Stakes over 1,600m. This intermediary trip also looks perfect for him and he looks sure to go close if fit enough first time up.
One runner who won’t struggle for lack of fitness is Roger Charlton’s DECORATED KNIGHT who has had the benefit of two prep runs. A decent win back in England in February has since been followed by a victory in the G1 Jebel Hatta over 1,800m here earlier in the month. There won’t be a runner lining up in the field in better condition, but this will require another step up against some talented rivals.
The globetrotting MONDIALISTE is one to consider although he has yet to win on any of his previous four first starts of a new season. Instead, look out for Aidan O’Brien’s DEAUVILLE who has remained in training at the age of four. On a going day, the son of GALILEO is pretty useful, as he showed when winning the G1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes over 2,000m on his travels last season.
SELECTIONS: 2. ZARAK, 1. RIBCHESTER, 4. DECORATED KNIGHT, 6. MUTAKAYYEF & 12. DEAUVILLE
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: FRANCE (C2)
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 2. ZARAK, 1. RIBCHESTER & 4. DECORATED KNIGHT
S1-5: Multiple – 7. POSTPONED, 5. PRIZE MONEY & 2. JACK HOBBS
S1-6: Multiple – 9. ARROGATE, 5. GUN RUNNER & 14. MUBTAAHIJ
S1-5 Dubai Sheema Classic
There may only be seven runners in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m, but whatever the field lacks in quantity, it more than makes up for in quality.
The obvious place to start is with last year’s winner POSTPONED, who disappointed on his seasonal reappearance when beaten in the G2 Dubai City Of Gold over 2,410m, a race he had won 12 months before. He seemed too fresh last time and there is no doubt the run after a long absence will have done him the world of good. Prior to a relatively disappointing run when fifth in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m at the backend of last season, POSTPONED had rattled off a sequence of six victories, including four at G1 level. Two of these victories came over this course and distance, so there are no excuses about the conditions. Having had the best part of a month to acclimatise to the conditions and having had the benefit of a prep run, POSTPONED is confidently expected to follow-up last year’s victory.
The form book suggests that his biggest danger ought to be the Aidan O’Brien-trained HIGHLAND REEL, who rounded off last season with won in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and a close second in the G1 Hong Kong Vase both over 2,400m. However, he wasn’t at his best in this contest last season when finishing fourth, albeit not beaten that far, and he looks opposable. It is worth noting that HIGHLAND REEL tends to improve for his first run of the campaign, having being beaten on all three career seasonal openers to date.
A bigger danger could come from stablemate SEVENTH HEAVEN who was twice a G1 winner last season and relishes this 2,400m trip. Whether she too is fully primed for this first start of 2017 is open to debate, but she is without doubt a very smart filly.
Godolphin are always to be respected on their own patch and they saddle two strong chances likely to give favourite POSTPONED most to think about. JACK HOBBS only managed to make the racecourse on two occasions last season, having broken his pelvis on the first of those starts at Newmarket last April. After nearly six months on the sidelines, he made a pleasing reappearance when third to ALMANZOR in the G1 Champions Stakes over 2,000m at Ascot back in October. That demonstrated that he retains all of his old ability and he looks sure to be competitive here.
Yet, POSTPONED’s biggest danger could well come from another Godolphin-owned runner in the shape of PRIZE MONEY, who beat him a neck last time. The 4YO re-opposes again and seems to be improving dramatically since being gelded. His G2 Dubai City Of Gold victory over 2,410m was his first run in Group-rated company and he showed real bravery to repel the challenges of both POSTPONED and EMOTIONLESS.
SELECTIONS: 7. POSTPONED, 5. PRIZE MONEY, 2. JACK HOBBS & 3. HIGHLAND REEL
S1-6 Dubai World Cup
ARROGATE, the world’s best racehorse, takes on 13 runners in the G1 2,000m Dubai World Cup with the best part of USD 10 million on offer. Bob Baffert’s 4YO has won six of his seven career starts to date, most recently adding the inaugural G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes over 1,800m to his G1 Travers Stakes and G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic successes both over 2,000m. The son of UNBRIDLED’S SONG looked better than ever at Gulfstream Park when last seen back in action in January and it’s very hard to envisage anything other than another easy success. His victory in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes was the second time in as many starts that he had beaten CALIFORNIA CHROME, who famously recorded a facile victory in this race 12 months ago.
ARROGATE’s stablemate HOPPERTUNITY has also made the journey over to Dubai and it wouldn’t be a total shock if he were to make the frame. The best of his form saw him finish fourth in last season’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic over 2,000m, some 11.5 lengths behind ARROGATE.
However, a bigger threat could come from another American-raider in the shape of GUN RUNNER, who had HOPPERTUNITY well behind him in the G1 Clark Handicap over 1,800m at Churchill Downs in November. He had previously finished 15 lengths behind ARROGATE when the pair met in the G1 Travers Stakes over 2,000m back in August, so although he may beat HOPPERTUNITY, it will be a major shock if he reverses form with ARROGATE. Admittedly he has improved since finishing second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile over 1,600m and has followed that with two subsequent victories, but beating ARROGATE requires plenty more still.
Another American-trained runner likely to come up short is the Todd Pletcher-trained NEOLITHIC, who traded blows with ARROGATE down the stretch in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes over 1,800m last time. He faded late on that day, but it was a good run from a lightly-raced sort having his first start in G1 company. There is every chance he could fill one of the minor places if his pilot elects not to battle with the favourite too early in the race. It’s a very long straight at Meydan and there is a worry he may be a spent force from quite a long way out.
South African-trained MUBTAAHIJ is a course specialist who will be having his tenth race at Meydan on Saturday. The 5YO famously won the 2015 G2 UAE Derby over 1,900m on this very card by eight lengths and has been prepped for this contest with a run at the backend of last month. He has returned to trainer Mike de Kock after a brief stint in America with Kiaran Mclaughlin and looks likely to finish in the frame.
SELECTIONS: 9. ARROGATE, 5. GUN RUNNER, 14. MUBTAAHIJ, 11. NEOLITHIC & 12. HOPPERTUNITY
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