 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Doncaster Mile Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 P J Bell Stakes
Godolphin-trained filly RAIMENT is racing in top form and is the one to beat. Settled second at Rosehill last start and then cruised to the lead at the 300m mark. Rain won't be a worry as she is proven on wet ground with a win and a second from two starts on soft tracks.
SAMANTHA chased home RAIMENT last start but drawing barrier 13 was a blow. Can't dismiss completely however, as she loves soft conditions, meets RAIMENT 2lbs better and always gives her best.
Chris Waller sends filly ZUMBELINA to this race first-up after she worked her way up through easier races at the end of last year. Two recent trials that should have her fit enough and handles soft conditions, so expect her to be competitive.
Melbourne filly SWEET SHERRY brings a strong form profile into this race. She has always competed in top quality sprint races against her own sex and either won or ran well. Her most recent run should have her ready for this.
With similar form to SWEET SHERRY, consistent filly PROMPT RESPONSE is first up and must be respected. Barrier 1 is a query, but the stable is flying.
SELECTIONS: 3. RAIMENT, 7. SAMANTHA, 12. ZUMBELINA, 6. SWEET SHERRY & 8. PROMPT RESPONSE
S1-2 ATC Sires’ Produce Stakes
TULIP ran very well in the G1 Golden Slipper on 18th March and that form is the obvious way to go. Barrier 2 looks ideal and the stable is flying so expect her to be hard to beat.
FROLIC will go back from barrier 16, but that has been her usual pattern. She finished off well along the rails in the G1 Golden Slipper and gives every indication that stepping up to the 1,400m will suit.
MENARI also ran well in the G1 Golden Slipper, demoted to fourth from third after causing interference. A more firm racing surface would suit better but should be able to slot in for cover from barrier 11.
The powerful Snowden stable send an interesting runner, INVADER, into the race after skipping the G1 Golden Slipper. Sometimes the fresh horse on the scene is hard to beat.
Superstar jockey Joao Moreira has been booked to ride VERANILLO and could be a chance at big odds from an ideal barrier.
SELECTIONS: 15. TULIP, 14. FROLIC, 2. MENARI, 8. INVADER & 4. VERANILLO
S1-3 Australian Derby
Highly rated young stayer INFERENCE is ready to peak and looks very hard to beat. Didn’t look comfortable last start on the heavy track at Rosehill. Go on his previous form. The likelihood of a slow rated surface will suit much better and barrier 4 is perfect.
All-conquering New Zealand stayer GINGERNUTS is sure to be competitive. Loved the heavy conditions last start and meets many of the same horses here. Probably settles beyond midfield from barrier 12.
Emerging stayer ANAHEIM brings an interesting form profile here. Caught the eye last start at Rosehill behind GINGERNUTS and was finishing off strongly. Sure to get a cosy run from his draw and must be respected.
JON SNOW looked super impressive last Saturday at Rosehill, but prior to that was soundly beaten by GINGERNUTS in the G1 New Zealand Derby. Hard to ignore his dominant win last time.
SO SI BON, IMPAVIDO and PRIZED ICON – all have to be considered in a high quality contest.
SELECTIONS: 3. INFERENCE, 2. GINGERNUTS, 7. ANAHEIM, 4. JON SNOW & 5. SO SI BON
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 3. INFERENCE
Selections – 2. GINGERNUTS, 7. ANAHEIM, 4. JON SNOW & 5. SO SI BON
S1-4: Banker – 1. CHAUTAUQUA
Selections – 14. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, 13. ASTERN, 2. MALAGUERRA & 12. ENGLISH
S1-4 T J Smith Stakes
Star sprinter CHAUTAUQUA, a G1 winner in Hong Kong last season, is the one to beat and gets a chance to show his best here. Track and distance is ideal and is well suited under race conditions. Well settle back in the field, as usual, and storm home.
Classy 3YO RUSSIAN REVOLUTION faces his biggest test. Soft conditions suit and barrier 10 should enable him to press forward and control the race from in front.
ASTERN is too good to leave out but the big query is that we haven’t seen him since a trial in early March. Stable has not been keen to test him on heavy tracks so the wet conditions are also a concern.
MALAGUERRA seems to save his best for the big occasion. He has drawn ideally in barrier 7 and has form on soft ground. I liked the way he performed in a recent trial when given an easy time.
ENGLISH is a high quality filly, but I'm not sure barrier 1 suits because she can be slow at the start. If she jumps away and the inside part of the track is fine, then she has to be considered.
SPIETH and FELL SWOOP are both racing well and should be considered.
SELECTIONS: 1. CHAUTAUQUA, 14. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, 13. ASTERN, 2. MALAGUERRA & 12. ENGLISH
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple –1. CHAUTAUQUA, 14. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION & 13. ASTERN
S1-5: Multiple – 19. SPECTROSCOPE, 16. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE & 2. LE ROMAIN
S1-6: Multiple – 3. MULL OVER, 8. LA CHATTE & 9. BAYSA
SPECTROSCOPE will need every bit of Joao Moreira's trademark 'Magic' to win from a wide barrier in a highly competitive race. Goldolphin's 4YO has won both starts impressively since arriving from France, handles wet ground and looks ready to peak three runs in.
Premier trainer Chris Waller has a great record in these mile handicaps at Randwick, especially when bringing horses back from 2,000m. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE fits that profile, gets big race specialist Tommy Berry aboard and loves wet ground.
LE ROMAIN is a proven G1 competitor and will handle the going but has to beat a host of young, up-and-coming talents with light weights.
MCCREERY is another Chris Waller’s runner. He looks well weighted with just 117lbs and has great form on soft ground.
Former Hong Kong-trained horse REDKIRK WARRIOR steps up to a mile after a surprise big race victory last start in the G1 Newmarket Handicap.
SELECTIONS: 19. SPECTROSCOPE, 16. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE, 2. LE ROMAIN, 11. MCCREERY & 10. REDKIRK WARRIOR
S1-6 Adrian Knox Stakes
James Cummings-trained MULL OVER created a positive impression at her latest start over 1,600m, but is bred to stay and this race suits. Over-raced early and was caught wide last start, but finally settled fifth and produced a powerful finish out wide. Fits the profile of many winners of this race, coming through country and provincial races.
Godolphin's LA CHATTE caught the eye last start storming home for second. On that occasion she settled last and went very wide on the home turn, powering home out very wide. Soft track and distance in this race look ideal.
BAYSA is another filly with a similar profile to MULL OVER, coming from provincial tracks and must be considered. Trained by Chris Waller, she looks to be another one suited up to 2,000m and the spacious Randwick track.
HIGH IMPULSE is a stablemate of MULL OVER and looks a staying type. She has the benefit of a win over 1,800m on a heavy track on 2nd March and must be included.
Lightly raced PERFECT RHYME has to be considered after a fourth in a key lead-up race at Kembla Grange.
SELECTIONS: 3. MULL OVER, 8. LA CHATTE, 9. BAYSA, 4. HIGH IMPULSE & 2. PERFECT RHYME
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