 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (Royal Sovereign Stakes)
With a number of horses likely to push forward and create a fast tempo, this races sets up nicely for GLENALL on his home track. Settled back in the G1 The Galaxy on 18th March and was unlucky, charging home for fourth. Probably prefers dry ground but still the one to beat here.
GLOBAL GLAMOUR is racing very well and should be at the top of her game fitness-wise following recent racing and a trial since her last run. Awkwardly drawn, but should be up on the speed and with just 120lbs on her back she should be very hard to beat.
DERRYN looks suited by the conditions here, especially competing against his own age group. The David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained colt handles wet tracks and is very strong. Last Saturday he finished off nicely behind champion sprinter CHAUTAUQUA, coming from well back and was beaten only six lengths. That reads like good form for this level.
Godolphin's IMPENDING might need a dryer surface than he has encountered recently and even though he probably won't get it here, he should still be competitive. An improving type, he might need further, but has solid form in top quality races.
TACTICAL ADVANTAGE is another horse hoping for a dryer surface. Racing consistently and has Hugh Bowman to ride, so has to be considered.
SELECTIONS: 5. GLENALL, 11. GLOBAL GLAMOUR, 4. DERRYN, 2. IMPENDING & 6. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE
S1-2 Australian Oaks
Star New Zealand-trained filly BONNEVAL is a stablemate of last week's G1 Australian Derby winner JON SNOW, trained by the astute Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman team, and is undoubtedly the one to beat here. She has won her past three starts before coming to Australia, including the G1 New Zealand Oaks, in which she came from the rear with a powerful finish.
DEVISE is another New Zealand filly with solid form behind BONNEVAL. Last start in the G1 New Zealand Oaks she raced on the speed and looked the winner turning for home, but could not hold off BONNEVAL. She is sure to give a good sight.
Melbourne filly HARLOW GOLD is ready to peak and is a definite chance. All her runs this campaign have been good, indicating that she is ready for this challenge.
Talented filly NURSE KITCHEN has always shown promise and stormed home for second last start at Rosehill. She looks like she is ready to produce her best after an ideal eye-catching run over 2,000m.
Tough frontrunner LASQUETI SPIRIT will lead and set a solid pace. Has been racing in all the top lead up races so should be at peak fitness. Might need some on-pace bias to win, but she should run a big race.
SELECTIONS: 3. BONNEVAL, 6. DEVISE, 5. HARLOW GOLD, 4. NURSE KITCHEN & 1. LASQUETI SPIRIT
S1-3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
WINX is simply a Champion. She treated a classy field with contempt last start and I expect her to do something similar here. Only terrible luck could stop her from winning her 17th race in a row.
HARTNELL doesn’t seem to be racing as well as he was towards the end of 2016, but still looks the main danger. Always given the impression he could test WINX, but that has never eventuated.
THE UNITED STATES is a consistent performer at this level and finished next to HARTNELL last start at Rosehill, so should be competitive again.
HAPPY CLAPPER is the fresh horse on the scene following an excellent second last Saturday in the G1 Doncaster Mile. Probably needs a slow surface at worst to produce his best but is a definite place chance.
EXOSPHERIC is racing consistently including her last start third at Rosehill behind JAMEKA, this suggests he could run a place.
SELECTIONS: 9. WINX, 1. HARTNELL, 4. THE UNITED STATES, 3. HAPPY CLAPPER & 2. EXOSPHERIC
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 9. WINX
Selections – 1. HARTNELL, 4. THE UNITED STATES, 3. HAPPY CLAPPER & 2. EXOSPHERIC
S1-4: Banker – 7. BIG DUKE
Selections – 5. ASSIGN, 1. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 10. PENGLAI PAVILION & 14. POLARISATION
S1-4 Sydney Cup
This is the biggest test yet for Darren Weir's promising stayer BIG DUKE, but he is still the one to beat. He has won his last two starts in Sydney on heavy tracks, including a G2 company over 2,600m at Randwick last Saturday.
Former European galloper ASSIGN is lightly raced and has a suitably stout staying pedigree. The Robert Hickmott stable has an imposing record in Sydney at this time of the year. Must be considered after a strong last start win at Rosehill on a heavy track over 2,000m.
Evergreen stayer WHO SHOT THEBARMAN seems ready to produce his best, and his best might be good enough to win. His fourth at Rosehill in the G1 The BMW over 2,400m was a terrific form reference for this race. Distance is not a problem, but his best overall form is on the firmer surfaces.
PENGLAI PAVILION and POLARISATION, both trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin, they have strong staying backgrounds and must be respected. Neither would surprise given the success Appleby had in Melbourne during the Melbourne carnival at the end of last year.
SELECTIONS: 7. BIG DUKE, 5. ASSIGN, 1. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 10. PENGLAI PAVILION & 14. POLARISATION
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 7. BIG DUKE, 5. ASSIGN & 1. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
S1-5: Multiple – 1. SILENT SEDITION, 6. DIXIE BLOSSOMS & 3. HEAVENS ABOVE
S1-6: Multiple – 1. TYCOON TARA, 11. RAVI & 2. ARTISTRY
S1-5 Coolmore Legacy Stakes (Queen of the Turf Stakes)
Melbourne-trained filly SILENT SEDITION is racing in great form and now faces her own sex at favourable weight-for-age conditions. She brings great form into this after a win against the colts over 1,200m, has also won at 1,800m and two starts back was a super second at G1 level at Rosehill.
Consistent filly DIXIE BLOSSOMS is suited back at Randwick and up to a mile. Was never in the right position in a slowly run race last start at Rosehill and her effort to finish third was full of merit. Will need some luck from barrier 12 but could be right in the finish.
Under-rated mare HEAVENS ABOVE defeated SILENT SEDITION last time at Rosehill, but the race did set up perfectly when she settled beyond midfield and had the ‘last shot’ at the leaders. Many of her previous runs were first class as well though, so she must be included.
Classy filly FOXPLAY takes on the more seasoned mares here, but is very talented and too good to dismiss. Likely to settle back, so will need a solid pace and a fair track to win.
Kris Lees-trained mare DANISH TWIST has a great overall record and the ideal preparation for this race. She was third to HEAVENS ABOVE on 11th March, was fifth back at 1,200m on 25th March, and is now ready to run a big race back up at a mile.
SELECTIONS: 1. SILENT SEDITION, 6. DIXIE BLOSSOMS, 3. HEAVENS ABOVE, 17. FOXPLAY & 7. DANISH TWIST
S1-6 Sapphire Stakes
The powerful Snowden stable holds the key to this race with TYCOON TARA and RAVI, both of whom handle wet conditions. TYCOON TARA has strongest overall form profile – she competed at the highest level in 2016 and never seems to run a bad race. She comes into this race fresh with a good first-up record and the benefit of two trials.
RAVI also had an excellent 2016, is lightly raced and two recent barrier trials should have her primed for this. Barrier 15 isn't ideal, but this looks to be a good race for her.
ARTISTRY is another Snowden runner and has won eight races from only 20 starts. It should be noted that her best form is only over surfaces rated “good”, so punters should monitor track conditions to look for an improving surface.
THAMES COURT is a Melbourne-trained filly with solid form credentials and must be included. Her trainer has a solid record with horses when he travels to Sydney. Might pay to forgive her most recent run at Rosehill and go on her previous second to SILENT SEDITION.
OCEAN EMBERS and SECRET AGENDA should also be considered in a race of many possibilities.
SELECTIONS: 1. TYCOON TARA, 11. RAVI, 2. ARTISTRY, 5. THAMES COURT & 4. OCEAN EMBERS
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