 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for 2000 Guineas Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo+ Handicap
There haven’t been any huge trends in this 1,800m Class 2 handicap over the past decade, although 4YO have the best record with six wins and BALLET CONCERTO is certain to have plenty of supporters. Sir Michael Stoute is always to be feared in contests like this and this son of DANSILI looked very good when winning Doncaster’s handicap over 1,600m on his seasonal reappearance after being gelded. He is exactly the type of horse his trainer excels with and will have no problem with the extra 200m here. Ryan Moore takes the ride again.
With Godolphin having made a strong start to the campaign, you cannot ignore Saeed bin Suroor’s NEXT STAGE with champion jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle. This DUBAWI colt was an impressive winner at this course last month over 1,600m and he looks to have the right kind of profile. As with BALLET CONCERTO, he has also risen in the weights, but that was deserved and you would be surprised if he doesn’t have a higher rating come the end of the season.
Roger Varian’s CENTRAL SQUARE is another to consider in what looks a wide-open race. He landed two competitive handicaps last summer and his trainer has decided to drop him back in distance for his reappearance. He will definitely enjoy the quick ground, but he might just get done for speed taking on horses who have been plying their trade at 1,600m.
The phrase Group horse in a handicap certainly applies to the 6YO BERKSHIRE. Paul Cole’s son of MOUNT NELSON has been incredibly fragile over the past few seasons, but he won the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes and G3 Darley Stakes earlier in his career. He is hugely talented on his day and this is his first start in a handicap, so if returning to his best he could simply have too much class for his rivals at a decent price.
Charles Hills’ GRAPEVINE was beaten by the narrowest of margins at Newbury two weeks ago on his first start since being gelded. That was a really solid first run of the season and he looks to be heading in the right direction. As long as this race doesn’t come too soon after his Newbury exertions, he can run a solid race.
Richard Fahey’s DOLPHIN VISTA ran respectably to finish fifth in last month’s 1,600m handicap. He will appreciate the extra 200m here and could have a decent season ahead of him.
SELECTIONS: 4. BALLET CONCERTO, 6. NEXT STAGE, 2. CENTRAL SQUARE, 1. BERKSHIRE & 9. GRAPEVINE
S1-2 Palace House Stakes
The G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m will be the first port of call for a number of the top UK and Irish sprinters this season, not least last year’s winner PROFITABLE. Clive Cox’s 5YO scored over the minimum distance in this contest 12 months ago before going on to win the G2 Temple Stakes and G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. While he finished some way down the field in the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp at Chantilly on his last start of the 2016 campaign in October, he had been very busy and could well bounce back to form here. Cox’s horses have started the UK Flat season in great form and PROFITABLE could prove to be just that, on his first start in the famous colours of Godolphin.
COTAI GLORY, 12th in this race a year ago, is remarkably his nearest challenger from that day to line up here. That slightly under-par run in last year’s race was by no means the pick of his performances last season, though. The son of EXCEED AND EXCEL improved to finish a close second to PROFITABLE in the G1 1,000m King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot and a good fourth to the high-class MECCA’S ANGEL in the G1 1,000m Nunthorpe Stakes at York.
MARSHA represents the fillies and is likely to be near the top of the betting having won the G1 1,000m Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp on her final start last year. That victory in France has put her right into the spotlight and she could have a big season ahead of her. Whether she starts with a bang or takes a few races to get going is the question. She finished ahead of Aidan O’Brien’s WASHINGTON DC at Chantilly, but he’s already got a win under his belt this season and that form could be reversed. After winning a Listed event at Navan at the end of April he should be fully fit for this.
Trainer Clive Cox also fields recent Bath winner PRICELESS. This will be his first appearance on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile track, having twice finished second on the July course last season. Although back-to-back wins at Doncaster and Bath, both over today’s distance, have set him up for a hat-trick, he’ll need to put in a career best performance to go close in this company.
MUTHMIR is one of the more proven runners in the field. The 7YO has contested nine Group contests in his career, which have included wins in the G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood in 2015 and the G2 Prix du Gros Chene at Chantilly in the same year. That win at Goodwood was his last in Group company, though, and the concern is that he could be regressing.
The Palace House Stakes will be KIMBERELLA’s 65th start, although recent form suggests he’s never been in better form. He won over 1,200m on polytrack last time out at Lingfield, but this is a big ask. He’s never raced in Group company before and connections will be delighted if he can run into the places.
SELECTIONS: 11. PROFITABLE, 2. COTAI GLORY, 1. MARSHA, 13. WASHINGTON DC & 9. MUTHMIR
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 11. PROFITABLE
Selections – 2. COTAI GLORY, 1. MARSHA, 13. WASHINGTON DC & 9. MUTHMIR
S1-3: Banker – 6. SEVENTH HEAVEN
Selections – 1. ACROSS THE STARS, 4. ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN, 3. GALAPIAT & 2. CLEONTE
S1-3 Jockey Club Stakes
Aidan O’Brien is yet to saddle the winner of this race, although he hasn’t aimed one quite as talented as SEVENTH HEAVEN at the prize. The 4YO daughter of GALILEO was a dual G1 winner last term, landing the 2,400m Irish Oaks and the 2,400m Yorkshire Oaks on her favoured sound surface. Her reappearance run when a brilliant second to JACK HOBBS in the G1 2,410m Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan last month suggests that she may have improved with another winter on her back. The heavy rain that fell in Dubai in the lead up to that valuable contest certainly wouldn’t have been in her favour and the Newmarket ground will be ideal. With the benefit of that warm-up run, she will be incredibly hard to beat here.
GALAPIAT was an impressive winner of a 2,409m handicap at Epsom last month but takes a dramatic step up in class here. He was formerly trained by Andre Fabre in France and now looks a different horse since moving to Mark Johnston’s yard in England. There had been a concern about his ability to handle a sounder surface at Epsom but he won readily putting nearly five lengths between himself and the runner-up at the line. Whether he is quite ready to mix it in this company remains to be seen, but one thing for certain is that nothing else lines up here in better form.
Any horse that French trainer Alain de Royer Dupre sends over to Newmarket has to be respected and he saddles ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN who won last season’s G2 2,400m Grand Prix de Chantilly. Hong Kong racing fans will remember him finishing third to SATONO CROWN in the G1 2,400m Hong Kong Vase last December and a reproduction of that run will see him in the mix here.
Andrew Balding has his horses in good form and saddles his new French recruit CLEONTE here. Like GALAPIAT, this one was formerly trained by Andre Fabre in France and somewhat jumps in at the deep end here. He did win twice at France, but this is a huge step up in class and he is unlikely to shake up the principles.
SELECTIONS: 6. SEVENTH HEAVEN, 4. ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN & 3. GALAPIAT
The UK Flat season has barely begun but we already have the first Classic to look forward to. No trainer has won the 2000 Guineas Stakes more times than Aidan O’Brien in the modern era. The Irish handler has seven victories to his name and he is the obvious starting point.
CHURCHILL was a fantastic 2YO, winning five of his six starts, including an impressive performance in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 1,400m at this course in October. That is often the best trial for the 2000 Guineas Stakes, although 2015 Dewhurst winner, AIR FORCE BLUE, also trained by O’Brien, was well beaten in last year’s Guineas. This will be CHURCHILL’s first attempt at 1,600m, but as a son of GALILEO the trip is likely to bring about improvement. Ryan Moore also takes the ride and you can’t ask for a better jockey. The negatives are that he will be a very short price, his form from last year hasn’t really been backed up, while he also hasn’t had a prep run.
There have been some very good performances in the Guineas trials in the past two weeks, none more so than BARNEY ROY in the G3 1,400m Greenham Stakes at Newbury. Richard Hannon’s son of EXCELEBRATION was making only the second start of his career after winning a 1,600m maiden at Haydock last September. The additional 200m will be a bonus for him at Newmarket and what was so impressive about his display at Newbury was his stride length. He just seems to eat up the ground in a way that most horses don’t and Godolphin will be very hopeful that he can give them only their second win in the race since the turn of the Millennium.
The G3 Craven Stakes, run over the same course and distance as the 2000 Guineas Stakes in April, hasn’t been the best of trials in recent years, but that could be about to change. FRANKEL colt EMINENT, trained by Martyn Meade, was reportedly only 80% fit when winning and he is expected to come on a lot for that. Both of his career starts have been over course and distance so we know there are no fears when it comes to handling the famous Dip. It would be an incredible story for FRANKEL to sire a Guineas winner at the first attempt and EMINENT comes here with a big chance.
Andrew Fabre is a genius trainer and has won this race twice, although not since 1995 so he is due one. It often pays to sit up and take notice when he targets one at Newmarket and AL WUKAIR couldn’t have been more impressive in the G3 Prix Djebel over 1,400m at Maisons-Laffitte. He was out the back that day and looked to be in trouble, but he came with an astonishing run to win going away from G1 winner NATIONAL DEFENSE. His owners won this race 12 months ago with GALILEO GOLD and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were celebrating again on Saturday.
DREAM CASTLE, another son of FRANKEL, looked the winner 400m out in the G3 Greenham Stakes, but he had been too keen and was worn down by BARNEY ROY. He is very talented, but looked like he could be one for sprint distances given the way he raced at Newbury and he has to go an extra 200m in this.
Of all the outsiders, it is Aidan O’Brien’s LANCASTER BOMBER who makes the most appeal at huge odds. He finished second to his more fancied stablemate CHURCHILL in the G1 1,400m Dewhurst Stakes last season as a pacemaker showing battling qualities to rally back and grab that position. Since then he has finished second in America and returned with a bold fourth place on dirt in the G2 UAE Derby over 1,900m in Dubai last time. He has plenty of experience, is very brave and looks a bit better than just a pacemaker.
SELECTIONS: 2. BARNEY ROY, 1. AL WUKAIR, 3. CHURCHILL, 5. EMINENT & 6. LANCASTER BOMBER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 2. BARNEY ROY, 1. AL WUKAIR & 3. CHURCHILL
S1-5: Multiple – 6. VICTORY ANGEL, 2. MOSTAHEL & 5. EXMOUTH
S1-6: Multiple – 4. NIGHT CIRCUS, 1. KHALIDI & 5. PERMIAN
S1-5 3yo 81-100 Handicap
After a comfortable win on his seasonal reappearance over course and distance, VICTORY ANGEL looks the one to beat in the 1,200m handicap. He was up with the pace all the way that day and still managed to pull clear of his nearest rival RICH AND FAMOUS who has won at Doncaster since. Roger Varian’s horses have started the season in fine form, as has jockey Andrea Atzeni, and VICTORY ANGEL can win again.
His biggest danger could well be Al Shaqab Racing’s MOSTAHEL with Frankie Dettori booked to ride. Though his only win to date came in a maiden at Wolverhampton, he won that race in good fashion and seems ready for a step up in company. Both of MOSTAHEL’s turf starts came on ground described as good-to-soft, so it will be interesting to see how he handles these quicker conditions.
Despite a disappointing run in the 1,400m G2 contest when last seen back in September, there are reasons to think EXMOUTH will play a big part in this contest. The step down in class and trip are both positives and Sir Michael Stoute’s horses tend to do better at three than two.
Mark Johnston saddles QUEEN IN WAITING here and she steps up from 1,000m to 1,200m for the first time. She has showed plenty of speed in all four starts over the minimum trip and is a danger if seeing out the extra 200m. Joe Fanning, who is already into double figures for winners this season, is booked for the ride.
EQTIRAAN has a tough task carrying top weight in this, but he has some strong form in the book and should be race-fit after his seasonal bow at Lingfield last month. Of his four starts his only win came over today’s 1,200m trip, so speed shouldn’t be a problem. That win came on debut at Ascot when beating RIVET, who went on to win a G1 at the back end of last season. EQTIRAAN cost £250,000 as a yearling and was entered into a number of G1 contests as a 2YO, so on potential alone he looks a dangerous here.
SELECTIONS: 6. VICTORY ANGEL, 2. MOSTAHEL, 5. EXMOUTH, 8. QUEEN IN WAITING & 1. EQTIRAAN
S1-6 Newmarket Stakes
Charlie Appleby and William Buick combined to win last year’s Newmarket Stakes with HAWKBILL and hold a strong hand again over the 2,000m this time with NIGHT CIRCUS. The son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT comes into the race as one of the most unexposed in the line-up having won the maiden on debut at Newmarket last month by half a length. Appleby’s yard have enjoyed a great start to the season and will be hoping NIGHT CIRCUS can take this on his way to better things.
There are only five runners declared in this intriguing contest and the biggest danger to NIGHT CIRCUS could well be the John Gosden-trained KHALIDI. The 3YO HIGH CHAPARRAL colt certainly has an advantage when it comes to experience having already run six times in his career, winning three of them. That most recent victory came at Newmarket in the Listed Feilden Stakes under the tutelage of Frankie Dettori who again takes the ride here for another stable flying high. The only negative is that he has to shoulder a weight penalty for that last success.
Ryan Moore takes the ride on PERMIAN and Mark Johnston’s 3YO was beaten by the shortest of distances by Derby fancy CRACKSMAN at Epsom over this 2,016m trip late last month. He looked to have stolen a decent lead on the eventual winner that day but was worn down in the shadows of the post. That was an excellent effort though and he looks sure to build on that again.
Ian Williams’ SPEEDO BOY could prove best of the rest having won two of his previous three races, including last time out in the Listed Prix Maurice Caillault at Fontainebleau. That was his first time on turf having been campaigned on various All-Weather surfaces and has an outside chance if he can handle the Newmarket undulations. He too, like KHALIDI, is penalised for that last success.
The only other runner is Hugo Palmer’s MAJORIS who seems to have lost his way a little since winning his first two starts as a 2YO. He showed little encouragement on his return to racing last month and connections will be hoping that the 400m step up in trip can help him rediscover his form.
SELECTIONS: 4. NIGHT CIRCUS, 1. KHALIDI & 5. PERMIAN
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