Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
This is a wide open Japanese Derby, and I reckon there are five horses who have lively chances to win the most prestigious 3YO race in Japan.

My first choice is DAIWA CAGNEY, who won the Listed Principal Stakes at Tokyo on 6th May impressively. The turf track at Tokyo this spring has been quick, but DAIWA CAGNEY's winning time of 1 min 58.3 sec was still amazing, as it was 1.7 sec faster than the standard time. The track at Tokyo has still been kept on the quicker side, and I believe his speed will conquer the field in the Derby. He is now 3 wins from 3 starts at Tokyo Racecourse, and there is another encouraging factor for DAIWA CAGNEY. His sire KING KAMEHAMEHA was the winner of Derby in 2004, and is the sire of DURAMENTE, winner of the Derby in 2015. Therefore, I believe the extra 400m should not be any problem for him.

The principle threat to DAIWA CAGNEY is SUAVE RICHARD, who won the G3 Kyodo News Service Hai at Tokyo on 12th February by two-and-a-half lengths. As like DAIWA CAGNEY, SUAVE RICHARD prefers a big galloping track, and I analyze he could not handle the tight track at Nakayama when a well beaten 6th in the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas last time out. He is a big horse by HEART'S CRY, whose progeny tend to improve dramatically through the spring 3YO season. SUAVE RICHARD has trained beautifully at the Ritto Training Centre since his G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas defeat, and I believe we will see a much better SUAVE RICHARD on Sunday in Tokyo.

Mirco Demuro, the current leading jockey in Japan, has ridden both PERSIAN KNIGHT and ADMIRABLE. The former finished second in the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas at Nakayama on 16th April, and the latter won the G2 Aoba Sho, one of Derby prep races, which took place over the same track and trip as the Derby, on 29th April. Demuro has picked ADMIRABLE as his Derby ride. The son of DEEP IMPACT's winning time in the G2 Aoba Sho, of 2 min 23.6 sec, was also quicker than standard. He has sharp turn of foot, which he has inherited from his sire, and who has already sent out three Derby winners to date. The negative factor for ADMIRABLE is that no Aoba Sho winner has ever won the Derby. However, I believe he has a serious chance to complete the Aoba Sho and Derby double.

Trainer Yasutoshi Ikee has booked Keita Tosaki, the champion jockey in Japan for three consecutive years from 2014 to 2016, to ride PERSIAN KNIGHT in the Derby. I think this is a good choice, as Tosaki has not won the Derby, and is very hungry to win the Derby. PERSIAN KNIGHT is by HARBINGER, who won G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, over 2,400m at Ascot, by 11 lengths. I believe the Derby trip will be ideal for PERSIAN KNIGHT.

I believe REY DE ORO, winner of the G2 Hopeful Stakes at Nakayama in December, is also capable of going close in the Derby. He is a fresh horse, as the Derby is only his second start of the season, and he won a maiden at Tokyo in October impressively. He is handled by a top trainer Kazuo Fujisawa and ridden by Christophe Lemaire.

SELECTIONS: 15. DAIWA CAGNEY, 4. SUAVE RICHARD, 18. ADMIRABLE, 11. PERSIAN KNIGHT, 12. REY DE ORO

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