 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for King's Stand Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Queen Anne Stakes
Royal Ascot 2017 kicks off with the G1 Queen Anne Stakes, run over Ascot’s straight 1,600m course. This race was won 12 months ago by US-trained mare TEPIN and if the prize is to go across the Atlantic again it could be with another mare, Graham Motion’s MISS TEMPLE CITY. Her last start was a narrow 1,600m G1 win at Del Mar, but this will be her first start of the year and she is taking on a far better calibre of horse in this race.
The same is true for Todd Pletcher’s AMERICAN PATRIOT, the mount of Frankie Dettori. He is improving but it will be a big surprise if the Americans win this again.
RIBCHESTER is the hot favourite and he is simply impossible to oppose, despite his guaranteed short odds. He won the G3 Jersey Stakes, run over 1,400m, at this meeting in 2016, so the track clearly holds no fears. That win was on soft ground, but he’s got some decent form on a quicker distance, so the hot weather shouldn’t be a problem. He was very impressive when comfortably landing the 1,600m G1 Lockinge Stakes last month and trainer Richard Fahey has always said he’s the best horse he’s trained. Godolphin have a number of big hopes in the royal blue silks this week, but none more so than RIBCHESTER and he can get the party started for Sheikh Mohammed.
The biggest danger to the favourite is undoubtedly LIGHTNING SPEAR, who was runner up in the G1 Lockinge Stakes and also finished an excellent third in this race last year. Although he perhaps doesn’t win as often as he should, he has some very solid G1 form and 1,600m on quick ground is perfect for him. Conditions were just a little too soft last month.
Qatar Racing are running a pacemaker in the recently acquired DUTCH UNCLE. He has absolutely no chance, but LIGHTNING SPEAR needs a strong pace to show his best. I also expect him to be ridden closer to the strong pace this time rather than sitting out the back and giving himself too much to do.
You often get some big-priced horses hit the frame in this race and OH THIS IS US could be one such horse. Although he was beaten in a competitive 1,600m handicap on his reappearance at Doncaster, he’s won twice since then and was unlucky in the G3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom last time. He is another who will relish a decent tempo and with seven starts under his belt since the turn of the year, fitness certainly won’t be a problem.
The same can’t be said of DUTCH CONNECTION who is making his seasonal reappearance after finishing the last campaign down the field in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita. He has strong form at Ascot, winning the 2015 G3 Jersey Stakes and then finishing second in the G2 Summer Mile Stakes last July. He doesn’t have a huge amount to find on ratings, but you have to take his fitness on trust.
MUTAKAYYEF was the horse that beat DUTCH CONNECTION in the G2 Summer Mile Stakes and he can’t be ruled out. William Haggas’ SEA THE STARS gelding has been a little fragile in his career, but on his day he is a very decent animal. The stronger the pace the better for him, as he stays further than 1,600m, although he might just get a little far back on his first start since March.
SELECTIONS: 13. RIBCHESTER, 10. LIGHTNING SPEAR, 12. OH THIS IS US, 11. MUTAKAYYEF & 4. DUTCH CONNECTION
S1-2 Coventry Stakes
It is surprising that the G2 Coventry Stakes, run over 1,200m for juveniles, hasn’t been upgraded from G2 to G1 status considering the roll of honour. CARAVAGGIO put up an incredible display 12 months ago and names such as DAWN APPROACH, CANFORD CLIFFS and HENRYTHENAVIGATOR have all won this prize in the past decade.
Aidan O’Brien has a brilliant record in the race with eight wins since 1997 and this time he relies upon MURILLO and U S NAVY FLAG. MURILLO showed his inexperience on his debut over this 1,200m trip at the Curragh last month and dropped away to finish last of the six runners. However, he bounced back a little under two weeks later to land a Tipperary maiden over 1,000m in emphatic fashion. Connections are now somewhat throwing him in at the deep end, but he must be showing them plenty at home. Stablemate U S NAVY FLAG has yet to win in three starts in his native Ireland and needs to step up dramatically on what he has achieved on the racecourse to date.
It is very interesting that the same Coolmore connections have bought a controlling interest in Wesley Ward’s ARAWAK. This hasn’t been the best race for the US trainer since he’s been targeting this meeting. The majority of his successes have come over the minimum 1,000m trip and it was the same distance when ARAWAK landed his maiden at Belmont Park last month. That said, he comes with a big reputation and if Coolmore are to land the spoils it may well be him that gets the job done.
If Ireland are to win their fifth Coventry Stakes in seven years, it could well be with Mrs John Harrington’s BROTHER BEAR. It’s been an incredible few months for this popular dual-purpose trainer. She won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, the most important race of the National Hunt season, and then followed up in the Irish Grand National. But she’s also introduced some hugely promising flat horses, and BROTHER BEAR is one of them. This son of KODIAC is unbeaten in two starts and those wins came on good-to-firm and soft so it doesn’t matter to him what the weather does. His Listed win at the Curragh last month was a really gutsy display. He is a very big horse and won’t have any problems in a battle.
Richard Hannon has a couple of bullets to fire as he bids to win the race for the first time since taking over the licence from his father. DENAAR is two from two, so you can’t fault him, although it’s hard to know how good those races were. Frankie Dettori takes the ride and he will be wearing the same Al Shaqab colours that he wore to victory on THE WOW SIGNAL in this contest three years ago.
The other major Hannon contender is DE BRUYNE HORSE who landed the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom earlier this month. That form has been franked by the second winning subsequently and BURATINO claimed the Woodcote in 2015 before coming on to win the Coventry.
A bigger threat could well be RAJASINGHE who couldn’t have been more impressive when winning over 1,200m on debut at Newcastle on tapeta. He came home four lengths clear of the rest and horses that run well on tapeta often go well at Ascot where the track is sand-based.
Another once-raced maiden winner is Charles Hills’ NEBO who got the job done on debut at Newbury on soft ground. Quicker conditions shouldn’t be too much of a problem and his trainer thinks he’ll run well.
SELECTIONS: 3. BROTHER BEAR, 7. DENAAR, 2. ARAWAK, 14. RAJASINGHE & 6. DE BRUYNE HORSE
For the speed enthusiast, there is no greater thrill at Royal Ascot than the G1 King’s Stand Stakes, run over 1,000m. This year’s race is fascinating and undoubtedly the most interesting runner is Wesley Ward’s flying 3YO filly LADY AURELIA. The daughter of SCAT DADDY arrived at this meeting 12 months ago on the back of a runaway maiden win at Keeneland. Ward said she was special and she proved him right, scorching clear of her rivals to win the G2 Queen Mary Stakes by seven lengths, despite her trainer having concerns about the soft ground. It was an astonishing performance and many thought it was too good to be true. That theory was vindicated slightly when she suffered a defeat in the 1,200m G1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, although US horses wouldn’t be used to the severe undulations at that course. Her reappearance win at Keeneland in April was impressive and Ward, who has trained seven Royal Ascot winners, thinks she’s back to her best. She has a massive chance, especially on the quicker surface, and her draw in stall 18 could be perfect because Frankie Dettori will be able to get to the stands rail and try to burn them all off.
Another very fast filly is MARSHA and she will surely go very close. Trained by Sir Mark Prescott, she claimed the G1 Prix de L’Abbaye de Longchamp at Chantilly last October and then successfully carried a G1 penalty to win the G3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket last month. There were some decent horses behind her that day and she will be very hard to keep out of the frame for the home team.
This prize hasn’t gone to France since 2005, but it could do this year as SIGNS OF BLESSING looked top class on his reappearance at Deauville. He beat the winner of this race 12 months ago, PROFITABLE, by two lengths that day and was an excellent third in the 1,200m G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes last year. Even though he is a 6YO, he seems to be improving and ran really well to finish a close fifth in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin last December. The only worry is that he is yet to race on ground quicker than good, but his trainer will be hoping they have put plenty of water on the course.
PROFITABLE also has to be respected, as a previous winner of this race. He hasn’t won since then but his reappearance at Deauville wasn’t a bad effort and we know he likes this track. He shouldn’t be too far away.
There are plenty of other horses who have run well in this race before, including Charles Hills’ COTAI GLORY who was a close second to PROFITABLE 12 months ago. He hasn’t been in the best form this season, but a return to Ascot could see him back to his best.
GOLDREAM won this race in 2015 with MUTHMIR not far back in third and both of those will enjoy the sound surface on Tuesday. The G2 Temple Stakes at Haydock has been a good trial for this race in recent years and Clive Cox’s PRICELESS will also have her supporters. There are certainly some classy fillies in this race and it wouldn’t be a surprise if one of them won.
SELECTIONS: 18. LADY AURELIA, 12. SIGNS OF BLESSING, 16. MARSHA, 5. GOLDREAM & 3. COTAI GLORY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 18. LADY AURELIA
Selections – 12. SIGNS OF BLESSING, 16. MARSHA, 5. GOLDREAM & 3. COTAI GLORY
S1-4: Banker – 2. CHURCHILL
Selections – 1. BARNEY ROY, 4. LANCASTER BOMBER, 8. THUNDER SNOW & 7. RIVET
S1-4 St James's Palace Stakes
There have been some tremendous battles in the 1,600m G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over the years. This is normally the re-match for the protagonists from the G1 2000 Guineas, or a clash between the G1 2000 Guineas winner and the Irish one. The latter won’t be happening this year because CHURCHILL won them both and he must have a very strong chance of giving Aidan O’Brien his eighth win in this event. Always held in the highest regard at Ballydoyle, O’Brien flagged him as their best chance at the meeting last year and the son of GALILEO duly obliged in the Listed Chesham Stakes. Since then he is unbeaten and while some thought it was tactics that won him the Guineas at Newmarket, O’Brien rarely has his team fully wound up at the start of May. CHURCHILL was even more impressive at the Curragh in the Irish version a few weeks ago and he is certain to be very hard to beat in this.
According to the betting, he only has one real danger and that is BARNEY ROY who was just a length behind in the G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. He’d looked special when winning the G3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April and he actually did well to finish so close in the Guineas considering he didn’t handle Newmarket’s undulations. That was just his third career start, so there is plenty of improvement to come and a return to a more conventional track will definitely suit. However, he may still need to settle for second behind CHURCHILL who is a four-time G1 winner.
There doesn’t seem to be much between the rest of the field. Godolphin’s THUNDER SNOW ran respectably at the Curragh last time to finish two and a half lengths behind CHURCHILL in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas, following a bizarre situation in the G1 Kentucky Derby when he was pulled up shortly after the stalls opened. The return to a quick surface may well do the trick, but he has plenty to do to finish in front of either of the front two in the market.
One who could sneak into the places is the O’Brien second string LANCASTER BOMBER who ran so well to finish fourth in the 2000 Guineas. He was then disappointing in the Irish renewal, but he prefers a quicker surface and conditions will be more suitable on Tuesday. Ascot traditionally suits front runners and he may well be able to cling on to third place once the leading protagonists have got by.
The final selection is William Haggas’ RIVET who is on somewhat of a comeback mission after finishing down the field in the 2,100m G1 Prix du Jockey Club last time. He had previously finished a close second to EMINENT in the 1,600m G3 Craven Stakes and then followed that with a solid third in the 1600m G1 French 2000 Guineas. Really fast ground would be a concern, but with plenty of watering he should run his race.
SELECTIONS: 2. CHURCHILL, 1. BARNEY ROY, 4. LANCASTER BOMBER, 8. THUNDER SNOW & 7. RIVET
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 2. CHURCHILL, 1. BARNEY ROY & 4. LANCASTER BOMBER
S1-5: Multiple – 14. WHO DARES WINS, 18. BEYOND CONCEIT & 7. MAGIC CIRCLE
S1-6: Multiple – 22. ELIZABETH DARCY, 10. DECLARATIONOFPEACE & 18. ROUSSEL
S1-5 Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
There are only a handful of Flat races run over this marathon trip anywhere in the world, so siding with horses with the required stamina is essential in the Ascot Stakes. It has paid in recent years to concentrate on trainers who normally ply their trade with National Hunt horses. In fact, nine of the last ten winners have been saddled by handlers normally associated with jumpers. I expect that trend to continue as the National Hunt fraternity are well represented again this year.
Irish trainers have been responsible for saddling four of the last five winners in this contest, with Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore teaming up on two of those occasions. The pair reunite again with THOMAS HOBSON who is bound to be popular switching back to the Flat after a mixed career over hurdles. Formerly trained by John Gosden, the 7YO was a four-time winner on the Flat but none of those victories came over further than 2,400m and he was certainly at his best on ground much softer than he will encounter on Tuesday.
WHO DARES WINS ran really well back on the Flat when fourth in the 3,727m Chester Cup last month and looks to hold a major chance for Alan King. He seemed to relish the trip last time and finished full of running suggesting this step up in distance would actually help rather than hinder him. The ground should be no problem and he lines up here fresh having had only the three starts this calendar year.
Trainer Nicky Henderson is better known for being the most successful current trainer at the Cheltenham Festival (jump racing’s most prestigious fixture), but did train the winner of this prize back in 2011. He saddles BEYOND CONCEIT this year who has run really well for his new trainer in four starts since returning from injury and switching from Andrew Balding’s yard. This is his first run on the Flat for his new handler, but he ran with plenty of promise over this trip when last tried in this code back in 2013. Henderson has his team in good form and it would be a surprise if this one isn’t in the mix.
One of the outsiders, SUEGIOO, looks to be slowly returning to the form that saw him run in a G1 over this trip 12 months ago. He finished eighth behind ORDER OF ST GEORGE in last season’s G1 4,000m Ascot Gold Cup and ran all the way to the line that day. After showing little in seven subsequent starts, he bounced back with a good second over 3,241m at Haydock last time and could easily outrun his odds. He was beaten by Mark Johnston’s YORKIDDING who re-opposes again this race and has looked in great heart this season. This is another big step up in trip though and there has to be a doubt about whether she will fully see out this trip.
That also has to be a concern for Ralph Beckett’s MAGIC CIRCLE who failed to see out the monster 4,300m trip of the Queen Alexandra Stakes here last year. However, this race is 300m shorter than that one, and he should run well despite being drawn in the widest barrier.
SELECTIONS: 14. WHO DARES WINS, 18. BEYOND CONCEIT, 7. MAGIC CIRCLE, 3. SUEGIOO & 4. THOMAS HOBSON
S1-6 Windsor Castle Stakes
Narrowing a 24-runner 1,000m race for 2YOs with runners from England, Ireland and America down to just a few selections is no easy task. There have been plenty of upsets in this contest over the years, although it has paid to side with American-trainer Wesley Ward who has saddled two previous winners. Ward is double-handed this year with ELIZABETH DARCY and NOOTKA SOUND ridden by the hugely experienced John Velazquez and Frankie Dettori respectively. Both fillies bring 100% records to the table and it’s pretty hard to separate the pair.
NOOTKA SOUND looks set to be ridden aggressively from the front and will attempt to burn off her rivals. Her win on the dirt at Keeneland over 900m back in April shows she has plenty of speed, but it remains to be seen whether she will be able to keep up that gallop for the whole 1,000m.
ELIZABETH DARCY on the other hand looks set to be ridden far more conservatively with her jockey apparently aiming to deliver her on the ‘wire’. Those tactics seem far more sensible in a race of this nature and she is marginally preferred of the pair.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien landed this prize two years ago with WASHINGTON DC and will have high hopes for DECLARATIONOFPEACE this year. DECLARATIONOFPEACE has only had two starts, the last of which was a decent win at Dundalk over 1,000m. He is a son of WAR FRONT, whose progeny seem to do very well in their juvenile season at Ascot when the ground is quick. It’s difficult to weigh up the juvenile form this early in the season, although O’Brien targets this meeting with his best youngsters and this horse is clearly top of the tree at the moment.
Tom Dascombe’s DRAGONS TAIL showed plenty of speed at Chester over this trip last time sprinting away in the closing stages for a comprehensive victory. That was a big step up on what he achieved at Leicester on his debut and he is entitled to improve again.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has some smart 2YOs and saddles two here. ROUSSEL won his only start over this 1,000m trip at Leicester last month and has huge potential, as does SOUND AND SILENCE who wasn’t beaten far in the Listed National Stakes at Sandown.
There was something eye-catching about the way MOKAATIL travelled in behind runners having missed the break over 1,000m at Salisbury last month. The son of LETHAL FORCE moved up stylishly to go and try and win the race only to get a bit tired and he was collared by a useful type late on. He will have learnt a lot from that experience and can step up again.
CORINTHIA KNIGHT was firmly put in his place at Ascot last month by FROZEN ANGEL who looks a leading player in Thursday’s G2 1,000m Norfolk Stakes. His second placed finish when a hot favourite over this course and distance may not look so disappointing in time and he is better judged on his two previous wins. The second of those saw him carry a double penalty to a bloodless victory by seven lengths over this trip at Kempton back in April. More will be required here, but he is obviously a smart juvenile.
SELECTIONS: 22. ELIZABETH DARCY, 10. DECLARATIONOFPEACE, 18. ROUSSEL, 11. DRAGONS TAIL & 24. NOOTKA SOUND
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