 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Diamond Jubilee Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Chesham Stakes
Aidan O’Brien landed the Listed 1,400m Chesham Stakes with CHURCHILL 12 months ago and will be hopeful of making it two on the bounce when SEPTEMBER lines up on Saturday. The daughter of DEEP IMPACT, out of O'Brien's four-time G1 winner PEEPING FAWN, burst onto the scene earlier this month when winning a maiden at Leopardstown by almost six lengths. She won with even more in hand than the distance suggests and it would be no surprise to see her win this in route to bigger and better things.
Godolphin have been among the winners already at this year’s Royal Ascot and their Goodwood-winning entry MASAR is expected to push SEPTEMBER all the way. He too made a winning debut and although the short-head victory distance doesn’t look all that impressive, he’s sure to come on for the run. Trainer Charlie Appleby has been knocking on the door of late and the 2YO son of NEW APPROACH could hold the key to unlocking it.
FRANKEL colt WESTERLAND represents the formidable force that is John Gosden in the race as he too bids to land the prize for the fourth time in his career. WESTERLAND has had the benefit of two runs already this season, with Frankie Dettori on board the runner up in a maiden at Newbury just over a month ago. He confirmed that promise two weeks later when landing a maiden at Leicester but was kept up to his work despite being odds-on for victory, eventually getting up to win by a nose. He’s another entry to take seriously and he remains in capable hands with Pat Smullen taking the ride in the absence of the injured Dettori.
Mark Johnston is another trainer who has enjoyed success three times in the race and NYALETI is expected to be involved come the business end of the race. She narrowly got the better of a Richard Hannon favourite on debut at a nice price at Salisbury and is another who will come on massively for the race. The ground was good to firm that day so she will have no trouble with these fast conditions and should run into a place at least in the opener.
HEY GAMAN was only beaten a nose behind WESTERLAND back in May and could go close as James Tate looks for his first Royal Ascot winner. But preference is for Simon Crisford’s MATCH MAKER who finished just under two lengths behind that day in third despite a slow start. The penny dropped late on for the 2YO but he ran on all the way to the line and could go well at a big price. He will have to prove he likes this quicker ground but the step up in trip looks ideal as he aims to build on his debut effort.
The Queen will be in position to watch DARTMOUTH in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes later in the day and would like nothing more than to see LEARN BY HEART go in first. The William Haggas-trained runner, a son of FRANKEL, was coltish in the paddock on debut at Haydock but ran well to finish a close third and could easily build on that here.
SELECTIONS: 16. SEPTEMBER, 8. MASAR, 9. MATCH MAKER, 12. WESTERLAND & 15. NYALETI
S1-2 Wolferton Handicap Stakes
The Wolferton Handicap has been won by some well-fancied horses in recent years, with the favourite scoring on three of the last seven occasions. As a high-profile and valuable handicap, the race has a habit of attracting high-class horses who are leniently enough handicapped to run here before being stepped up in class. If there is an obvious Group class performer in this field, it is without doubt the Sir Michael Stoute-trained KHAIRAAT who seems to be improving dramatically with every race. The 4YO was beaten a neck into second on his debut last July over 1,393m, but hasn’t looked back since then. He rounded off last season with wins over 1,604m and 2,055m in relatively low-key events at Pontefract and Doncaster respectively, but stepped up again when landing a valuable 2,064m handicap at Chester last month on his reappearance. He quickened away from them in the style of a pretty smart horse that day and although the handicapper has had his say since, that may not be enough to stop him.
Godolphin have already had a brilliant week at Royal Ascot and have a decent chance here with KIDMENEVER who hasn’t been seen since finishing an unlucky second at Meydan in February. That run came over 2,000m trip when he flew home having been squeezed up turning into the straight to finish a close second to VIREN’S ARMY. Previously he had run well to finish fourth over the extended 2,435m trip on his first start for new connections since leaving France and he looks an exciting prospect.
CENTRAL SQUARE won three times last season, but has been punished by the handicapper as a consequence. He ran really well on his seasonal reappearance over 1,800m at Newmarket last month on similarly fast ground when third behind PLAYFUL SOUND. The fact that he stayed on really strongly is certainly encouraging and he looks sure to run well even from his revised higher mark.
Andrew Balding’s ELBERETH arguably brings the best single piece of form to the table, having finished fourth behind HIGHLAND REEL in the G1 2,405m Coronation Cup at Epsom earlier this month. The 6YO mare had previously run with credit to finish second to SOMEHOW in the G2 1,800m Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. Strangely, she seems to have improved at the age of six and cannot be left out of the equation even from her lofty position in the handicap.
My last vote goes to in-form MYTHICAL MADNESS who has bounced back to form in recent weeks. He followed a running on second to G K CHESTERTON over 1,703m at Epsom two starts back with a decent win over 1,593m at Haydock last week. He will have to improve again to take a hand in a race like this, but unlike plenty of his rivals he at least comes here in form. If there is a concern, it would be the trip of this race, but he hasn’t looked to be stopping at the finish in either of his last two starts.
SELECTIONS: 6. KHAIRAAT, 7. KIDMENEVER, 3. ELBERETH, 4. CENTRAL SQUARE & 12. MYTHICAL MADNESS
S1-3 Hardwicke Stakes
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has dominated the G2 Hardwicke Stakes in recent years, winning seven of the previous 11 runnings and 10 in total. Stoute won the race with royal runner DARTMOUTH 12 months ago and he is expected to go very close again as he looks to enhance his already incredible record. The son of DUBAWI has only been seen once this season, getting up by a neck to land the G2 Yorkshire Cup ahead of SIMPLE VERSE. That one prep run under his belt means he’s both fit and fresh and the booking of Ryan Moore is a further positive.
DAL HARRAILD will certainly appreciate the quick surface at Ascot, and comes into the race in a confident mood having won a competitive Listed race at York last time out. He may have been well beaten by MUNTAHAA at Newbury first time up in April, but John Gosden’s entry had already had the luxury of a run and he’s sure to improve again. MUNTAHAA goes into the Hardwicke with proven ability on a fast surface, having won the G3 company at Newbury in April. The booking of champion jockey Jim Crowley is also a plus. However, he was well beaten by DARTMOUTH at York in May and there’s no guarantee he will reverse those placings. He was also beaten over course and distance at last year’s Royal meeting but should run into a place if at his best.
Saeed bin Suroor’s PRIZE MONEY has shown solid form when racing over 2,400m, having overhauled the mighty POSTPONED earlier this year. While appearing to save his best for Meydan, he is a changed horse since being gelded at the end of last season but still needs to prove he can win a Group race in Britain. He has had a hard year, having been on the go in Dubai since January, but finished well behind HIGHLAND REEL on his latest start at Epsom.
6YO SECOND STEP is one of the oldest horses in the race, and he can use this racing experience to his advantage. Fresh from a Listed victory at Goodwood last month under Jamie Spencer, the winning pair team up again for the Royal meeting. Excuses can be made for his defeat by MUNTAHAA in two starts back, where he suffered traffic problems during the closing stages of the race. The recent move to Roger Charlton’s stable has revitalised him, and given the fact that he has struck victory at G1 level in the past, it is possible he could run a big race.
The quirky WESTERN HYMN can be a hard horse to predict but can never be ruled out for trainer John Gosden and jockey James Doyle. He ended last season with victory on the polytrack at Kempton and followed it up with a win on his seasonal debut at Chester in the G3 Ormonde Stakes.
His stablemate WINGS OF DESIRE possibly has a stronger chance. He was a close second to HIGHLAND REEL in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes last summer. On that form he must go close, but he was well beaten in the G1 International Stakes when last seen.
IDAHO has disappointed since being unseated in the G1 St. Leger Stakes last September. However, he has age on his side and may be able to improve on his run in the G1 Coronation Cup last time.
SELECTIONS: 6. DARTMOUTH, 14. WINGS OF DESIRE, 8. MUNTAHAA, 7. IDAHO & 10. PRIZE MONEY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 6. DARTMOUTH
Selections – 14. WINGS OF DESIRE, 8. MUNTAHAA, 7. IDAHO & 10. PRIZE MONEY
S1-4: Banker – 7. LIMATO
Selections – 14. THE TIN MAN, 9. MAGICAL MEMORY, 6. LIBRISA BREEZE & 8. LONG ON VALUE
Henry Candy got his first taste of Royal Ascot success since 1979 with TWILIGHT SON in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes 12 months ago, and the trainer is back for more with LIMATO this year. Carrying the same white and green-starred silks, LIMATO lines up with some of the best form in the field and could prove a tough nut to crack. Though he disappointed in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan last time out, finishing well down the field in tenth, he'll go very close if bouncing back to his best. He's a course and distance winner and was also second in the G1 Commonwealth Cup, also run over this 1,200m trip, at the Royal meeting as a 3YO. Since then he's won a pair of G1 contests, the G1 July Cup at Newmarket and the G1 Prix de la Foret at Chantilly, and is more than capable of adding another.
Champions Day hero THE TIN MAN will have his supporters after a taking performance over course and distance in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes last October. He won going away that day, and as a 5YO there could still be more to come. His trainer James Fanshawe knows what it takes to win this race too, having saddled SOCIETY ROCK to victory in 2011.
While Frankie Dettori has sadly been ruled out of Royal meeting due to injury, MAGICAL MEMORY, who the Italian jockey would have likely partnered, is very much in the frame. Charles Hills' dual Group level sprinter returned to action with a good run at York last month and is likely to come on for that. He had a number of top performers in behind him that day, including THE TIN MAN, but is yet to muscle in on a prize as hotly contested as this. It will take a career best performance for MAGICAL MEMORY to get involved, but he's expected to run well and certainly makes the shortlist.
LIBRISA BREEZE has an impressive Ascot record having won twice from four starts at the course and surely has to enter calculations. Dean Ivory has kept his charge off the track since running here in October, so he will be fresher than most when they get down to post. Gifted with a tremendous turn of foot, he has won on both good and good-to-firm ground and has a great chance of enhancing that fine Ascot record again.
Also in with a shout is LONG ON VALUE. American trainer William Mott, responsible for the mighty CIGAR, makes the trip to Berkshire for the first time and he won't want to go home empty-handed. His sprinter was close to landing a big odds shock when beaten by a nose in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan. Though the yielding ground is thought to have played a big part in his success that day, his presence should not be ignored.
Another to take seriously in the race is William Haggas’ TASLEET, who has champion jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle as the horse sets out for back-to-back wins. He claimed a G2 at York last time out on soft but has won on faster surfaces in the past.
SELECTIONS: 7. LIMATO, 14. THE TIN MAN, 9. MAGICAL MEMORY, 6. LIBRISA BREEZE & 8. LONG ON VALUE
S1-5 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)
There is no finer sight than seeing 28 sprinters blasting down Ascot’s home straight in the 1,200m Wokingham Stakes, which follows the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes. The obvious place to start is last year’s winner OUTBACK TRAVELLER who will bid to be become only the second dual victor since 1933. Robert Cowell’s speedball has been beaten on all four starts since then, but he ran better than his finishing position suggests in the handicap company last time. He doesn’t have to carry much more weight than last year and you can be certain this has been the target ever since he crossed the line a year ago.
If there is one horse in this field who could be seriously well-handicapped, then you’d have to say it would be recent Newmarket winner CULTURATI. The son of DUBAWI was having his first that day since October 2015, but he was clearly very fit and won the race in fine style. The worry with him is the dreaded ‘bounce’ factor when a horse has two quick runs after a long break, while the ground could also be a little quick for him.
Horses who perform well at Ascot often come back and do so again, and NORMANDY BARRIERE is turning into something of an Ascot specialist. Nigel Tinkler’s 5YO won a handicap here last month which gave him the additional weight to get into this race. He can hit a flat spot in his races, but it doesn’t take him long to find his stride and 1,200m at Ascot on quick ground is the dream combination for him.
EASTERN IMPACT is another with course and distance form, having won a G3 here two seasons ago. Although he hasn’t won a race since then, he ran really well at Newmarket last time behind stablemate MR LUPTON. He is a gutsy sprinter and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he went close for his trainer Richard Fahey, who won this prize three years ago with BACCARAT.
Another northern-based horse with a fair chance is EDWARD LEWIS for David O’Meara. He has only run over the minimum 1,000m for his new trainer, but ran and won over 1,200m when he was with John Gosden. His last run at Epsom was hugely eye-catching, as he suffered interference before flying at the end. He can’t be ruled out.
STEADY PACE had some very strong form as a juvenile sprinter, finishing third in the Listed company two years ago and then just a length behind SHALAA in the G2 July Stakes. He has since raced most of the time in Dubai where his form has been solid rather than spectacular.
BUCKSTAY wasn’t beaten far in this race 12 months ago and he can go well again for trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam. Most of his runs have been at 1,400m, but he has plenty of speed and 1,200m isn’t a problem. This is his first start since October, though.
Another who can’t be ruled out is POLYBIUS. He wasn’t beaten far in this race two years ago and his last start at Meydan in February was a step in the right direction.
SELECTIONS: 20. NORMANDY BARRIERE, 12. OUTBACK TRAVELLER, 18. POLYBIUS, 10. EASTERN IMPACT & 17. EDWARD LEWIS
S1-6 Queen Alexandra Stakes
The final race of Royal Ascot 2017 is the marathon 4,330m Queen Alexandra Stakes which also happens to be the longest race on the British flat racing calendar. A whopping field of 20 stand their ground for the finale with all eyes on Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes winner THOMAS HOBSON, who bids to follow in the hoof prints of stablemate SIMENON who landed the double back in 2012. The 7YO won with such authority earlier in the week that he cannot be left out of the equation. That said, he looks to have had a hard race on pretty fast ground and there has to be a doubt as to whether he can back up that performance.
Ryan Moore was in the saddle on Tuesday but has to ride US ARMY RANGER for Coolmore, making way for Martin Harley to pick up the plumb ride on THOMAS HOBSON. When US ARMY RANGER finished second in last season’s G1 Derby Stakes, connections would have had aspirations of winning a G1 with the son of GALILEO. However, he has been beaten on all six starts since and finished a distant last of 10 runners in the G1 2,405m Coronation Cup at Epsom earlier in the month. If he stays this monster trip then he cannot be discounted, but that has to be a big doubt and he is not the one to trust at present.
FUN MAC is no stranger to these extreme distances and shaped with real promise on his reappearance this campaign to finish third under a big weight in the 3,727m Chester Cup. He was deemed good enough to run in last year’s G1 4,000m Gold Cup and although he didn’t trouble the main protagonists, it’s a good indication of the high esteem in which he is held. Two years ago he was narrowly touched off in the 4,000m Ascot Stakes by CLONDAW WARRIOR so he has gone well at this meeting in the past.
His biggest threat could be the Godolphin runner QEWY who hasn’t been seen since winning a valuable handicap over 3,200m in Australia back in November. Second to JENNIES JEWEL in last year’s 4,000m Ascot Stakes when beaten by only a neck, he is another with proven course form who appears to go on any ground. He has gone well fresh in the past and looks a player if fully wound up on his first start in some time.
ORIENTAL FOX continues to defy his age, finishing a good fourth in this last year having won it back in 2015. It would be a surprise if he was good enough to win it again at the age of nine, but he’s been in good form this season and looks sure to run his race.
WINNING STORY has the form in the book to get involved if seeing out the trip, but has never run beyond 3,200m and his aggressive front running tactics could be a downfall here.
Instead, for my final selection I am going to take a flyer on Richard Spencer’s EXCELLENT RESULT who will be one of the outsiders. The stable won the G2 Coventry Stakes here earlier in the week and this one could surprise a few at a massive price.
SELECTIONS: 3. FUN MAC, 12. QEWY, 13. THOMAS HOBSON, 4. ORIENTAL FOX & 7. EXCELLENT RESULT
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