Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S2-1 Takarazuka Kinen

Champion DURAMENTE was beaten by long-shot MARIALITE in the 2016 G1 Takarazuka Kinen. The previous year, winner LOVELY DAY was a 13-1 sixth choice in 16-runner field, and runner-up DENIM AND RUBY was a 30 to 1 shot. In 2014, although GOLD SHIP the 17 to 10 favourite, won decisively, the runner-up CURREN MIROTIC was another long-shot.

This suggests the form in the first half of the season is not straightforward and has puzzled punters. It points to the conclusion that some of top contenders can be over the top come the day of Takarazuka Kinen, after having a couple of tough races in the spring season.

The runners of Takarazuka Kinen are selected by vote cast by racing fans, and KITASAN BLACK obtained more than 100,000 votes for the first time since VODKA in 2009. He is very popular and rock solid. The form of 2016 JRA Horse of the Year is outstanding, and he should be unbeatable if he shows his true ability at Hanshin on Sunday. He has however, had a couple of tough races in the spring season, and the G1 Tenno Sho Spring, which KITASAN BLACK made all breaking the track record, was no doubt a 'War of Attrition'. I am worried it might have taken too much out of him, and there hasn't been enough time for him to recover.

I am selecting SATONO CROWN, as the horse to beat KITASAN BLACK. He is familiar to racing fans in Hong Kong, as he was the winner of G1 Hong Kong Vase in December, when he defeated HIGHLAND REEL, the odd-on favourite trained by Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. While he is not a consistent horse, he is brilliant on his day. Although he was lacklustre in the G1 Osaka Hai when a disappointing sixth, I still believe SATONO CROWN could be a different horse on Sunday, and produce his best again.

MIKKI QUEEN was a costly failure when sent off 9-10 favourite, and a well-beaten seventh in the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo on 14th May. It was a surprising outcome, since she had trained so well towards that race, and I think we can overlook that poor performance. It is an encouraging fact that the 5YO mare, has started six times at Hanshin, winning three of them, and finishing runner-up in the other three.

It was obvious that GOLD ACTOR could not run his best race when only seventh in G1 Tenno Sho Spring last time out. He dwelt coming out of the stalls, and then raced in the middle of field. He does however, has the tactical speed to track the leaders, and provided he breaks smoothly, this 2,200m is his best trip. I believe we should not ignore this winner of 2015 G1 Arima Kinen.

SCIACCHETRA was also well beaten in G1 Tenno Sho Spring last time, but found the 3,200m trip beyond him, as he is a headstrong sort. Hanshin Racecourse is his favourite track, as he is unbeaten in three races there. He has the services of jockey Christophe Lemaire in the saddle, which should help him on Sunday.

SELECTIONS: 11. SATONO CROWN, 10. KITASAN BLACK, 8. MIKKI QUEEN, 2. GOLD ACTOR & 6. SCIACCHETRA

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