 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Epsom Handicap Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Hill Stakes
Superstar jockey Joao Moreira rides MACKINTOSH and he looks the one to beat. His most recent run was a fifth behind WINX over 1,600m and that looks an ideal form reference race for this.
SENSE OF OCCASION is arguably the best horse in this race, with the strongest credentials at weight for age level. However, there is some doubt as to whether or not he is going as well as last preparation. He hasn’t raced for 28 days, but should get a soft run from a good draw, so must be respected.
In-form galloper EMBLEY is likely to lead and be hard to get past. His recent form is in lower quality contests but this race is not as strong as most years, so he could surprise.
Under-rated mare PERFECT RHYME is capable of winning a good race. Barrier 9 makes it more difficult here, but she is very strong and is a chance at good odds.
Lightly-raced Godolphin runner SPECTROSCOPE hasn’t lived up to early expectations. His recent form is only fair, but a good barrier, ideal distance and having top jockey Kerrin McEvoy to ride are all positives.
SELECTIONS: 4. MACKINTOSH, 1. SENSE OF OCCASION, 8. EMBLEY, 10. PERFECT RHYME & 6. SPECTROSCOPE
S1-2 Flight Stakes
ALIZEE is the one to beat in an exciting renewal of this race after winning the G2 Tea Rose Stakes and that looks the best form reference. Many of the runners here came through the G2 Tea Rose Stakes and ALIZEE was a dominant winner in a slick time. Barrier 10 was a blow to her chances and the extra distance is a query, but she still stands out.
CELLARGIRL was an eye-catching third behind ALIZEE last start in the G2 Tea Rose Stakes, the extra ground should suit and she profiles as a definite chance from a good draw.
CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES has never missed a place and a runner-up finish against the colts last week is super form for this. Barrier 11 does present a problem because she will most likely have to settle at the rear, but expect her to be running on strongly.
PANDEMONIUM has Joao Moreira to ride and comes through different form lines to the other contenders. She is the likely leader and will be hard to get past.
ONE MORE HONEY is a great chance from barrier 2 after a strong finish for fifth against ALIZEE last start in the G2 Tea Rose Stakes.
SELECTIONS: 2. ALIZEE, 4. CELLARGIRL, 1. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES, 8. PANDEMONIUM & 3. ONE MORE HONEY
S1-3 Premiere Stakes
This race looks tailor-made for CHAUTAUQUA, with a strong early pace likely to help the big backmarker's chances. CHAUTAUQUA has won three times from four appearances over 1,200m at Randwick. The prep race has him looking ready.
IN HER TIME and ENGLISH are both high quality mares with great chances. I expect IN HER TIME to get a lovely run from the inside barrier and ENGLISH is likely to be ridden back, but I expect her to power home.
CLEARLY INNOCENT has been trialling well and the big track over 1,200m should be ideal first-up. Hugh Bowman to ride is a bonus.
FELL SWOOP is a consistent galloper but seems to struggle to win at this level. Barrier 10 makes it even more difficult, but he rarely runs a bad race and may sneak into the placings.
SELECTIONS: 1. CHAUTAUQUA, 9. ENGLISH, 2. CLEARLY INNOCENT, 10. IN HER TIME & 4. FELL SWOOP
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 1. CHAUTAUQUA
Selections – 9. ENGLISH, 2. CLEARLY INNOCENT, 10. IN HER TIME & 4. FELL SWOOP
S1-4: Banker – 1. HAPPY CLAPPER
Selections – 11. COMIN’ THROUGH, 9. TOM MELBOURNE, 2. FOXPLAY
S1-4 Epsom Handicap
HAPPY CLAPPER will be very hard to beat following two excellent lead up runs, the latest a second to super mare WINX. He does have to carry top weight of 126lbs and will be conceding 15lbs to those on the limit weight. I think he can win but treat with caution.
COMIN’ THROUGH is a well-bred, slowly maturing galloper that profiles well for this type of race. Barrier 12 is probably not ideal, but he is a big-striding horse that needs plenty of room anyway. Having Joao Moreira to ride is obviously a bonus and he will be hard to beat.
TOM MELBOURNE is a much-maligned galloper with the punting public, but he is racing well without winning. He gets in well at the weights, is likely to press forward and commands respect.
Top class mare FOXPLAY is racing in terrific form. Barrier 14 should allow Hugh Bowman to ride her patiently and save her for a late finishing burst. She has won three times from seven starts at Randwick and missed a place just once at the track.
SELECTIONS: 1. HAPPY CLAPPER, 11. COMIN’ THROUGH, 9. TOM MELBOURNE & 2. FOXPLAY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple –1. HAPPY CLAPPER, 11. COMIN’ THROUGH & 9. TOM MELBOURNE
S1-5: Multiple – 6. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE, 9. LIFE LESS ORDINARY & 1. LIBRAN
S1-6: Multiple – 8. SPRIGHT, 12. DAGNY & 4. TANGO RAIN
S1-5 The Metropolitan
Chris Waller's stayer ANTONIO GIUSEPPE is ready to produce his best after some strong lead-up runs. Chased home LIBRAN at his most recent run, but I suspect he will be much harder to beat this time.
LIFE LESS ORDINARY profiles well for this race, having had an ideal preparation and gets in with a light weight. Being trained by Chris Waller is an added bonus.
LIBRAN defeated LIFE LESS ORDINARY last start at this track and looked impressive dashing through along the rails. However, the extra distance and weight difference sways me towards LIFE LESS ORDINARY.
FOUNDRY is an injury-plagued galloper from the Robert Hickmott’s stable, but both his recent runs looked good. Looking for this distance and the stable should always be respected.
Front-running stayer BROADSIDE is racing in great form. Sure to appreciate the weight relief and give a good sight for a long way.
SELECTIONS: 6. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE, 9. LIFE LESS ORDINARY, 1. LIBRAN, 10. FOUNDRY & 8. BROADSIDE
S1-6 BM90 Handicap
SPRIGHT is the fresh horse on the scene. A Flemington winner with excellent dry track form, she has been trialling well and from barrier 1 she should get the right run. She just needs some luck over the final 200m.
This is an evenly graded group with little between many of the runners and it would not be surprising to see a bunch finish. Joao Moreira being booked to ride DAGNY is significant and she comes off a solid last start run.
The early speed should solid and TANGO RAIN is likely to press forward. The intense pressure early could hurt his chances but is still has some hope.
I THOUGHT SO is another lightly raced gelding with strong credentials. He is ideally drawn and has won second-up previously, so should be included.
SELECTIONS: 8. SPRIGHT, 12. DAGNY, 4. TANGO RAIN & 10. I THOUGHT SO
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