 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (S2-2), Prix de l'Opera (S2-3), Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (S2-4) & Prix de la Foret (S2-5) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-2 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
There is no race desired more by owners, trainers, breeders and jockeys in Europe than the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe run over 2,400m. The contest normally takes place at Longchamp, but with that track being renovated the Arc has moved to Chantilly. This is the second year it has been staged at the historic course and 12 months ago genuine history was made when Aidan O’Brien astonishingly trained the first three home.
The Irish trainer will be hoping to land a third win in the race on Sunday, but he faces a huge hurdle in the shape of ENABLE. John Gosden’s incredible 3YO filly has lit up the UK flat season this year, landing four consecutive G1 2,400m races in the Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks, King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks, all by comfortable margins. She is going to be sent off a very short-priced favourite and it’s easy to see why, especially with the allowances she receives as a 3YO filly. Considering 3YOs have won 17 of the last 23 runnings, and five of the last six victors have been fillies, there really isn’t much not to like. Of course she is the most likely winner, but she’s had a long season and you never know when things are going to catch up with young horses.
Her task is more complicated than the odds suggest and it could be Germany who cause another shock in Europe’s most important race. Back in 2011, DANEDREAM bounded clear of her rivals to win in fine style at a huge price and it could be the turn of DSCHINGIS SECRET on Sunday. Markus Klug’s 4YO has won his last three starts, including the G2 Prix Foy over course and distance earlier this month. He was very impressive that day, but perhaps even more so the time before when beating HAWKBILL in the G1 Grosser Preis Von Berlin at Hoppegarten. He relishes soft ground and a test of stamina, so connections will be delighted that there is plenty of rain forecast to hit Chantilly on Sunday. ENABLE is going to be very tough to beat, and she is proven in soft conditions, but DSCHINGIS SECRET is gutsy and has a decent chance of causing an upset.
Sir Michael Stoute is a genius with older horses and he has worked his usual magic with ULYSSES this season. Thought to be good enough to run in last year’s Derby on the back of a maiden win, he didn’t progress as far as his trainer wanted him too last term. However, this year has been a different story with victories in the G1 1,990m Eclipse Stakes at Sandown and the G1 2,051m Juddmonte International Stakes at York. Sandwiched between those wins was a respectable second to ENABLE in the G1 2,392m King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. He is much improved this season, although soft ground is a worry and 2,000m seems to suit him better than 2,400m.
Of the Ballydoyle contingent, WINTER is the most interesting contender as Ryan Moore has chosen her. She is a four time G1 winner and is clearly top class, but this is her first start at 2,400m. The daughter of GALILEO has lots of speed on the dam’s side of her pedigree and it’s very rare for a horse to win the Arc running over the distance for the first time. There are no stamina doubts with CAPRI and he was very impressive in the G1 St Leger Stakes a few weeks ago. The St Leger-Arc double is a difficult one to achieve, but conditions will be ideal for this grey son of GALILEO.
ORDER OF ST GEORGE was outstanding last time, and finished a good third in this race 12 months ago, but he’s not a horse you can put full trust in. It’s also worth pointing out that only one winner since 1975 has been older than four and that stat counts against this 5YO.
No trainer has won the Arc more times than Andre Fabre and the Frenchman will be hoping to add to his seven successes. CLOTH OF STARS chased home DSCHINGIS SECRET in the G2 Prix Foy last time. It’s hard to see him reversing the form but he could hit the frame.
The betting suggests that BRAMETOT has the best chance of the home team, although he’s been slowly away from the gates on his last few starts and that could prove costly here.
SELECTIONS: 8. DSCHINGIS SECRET, 17. ENABLE, 4. ULYSSES, 15. CAPRI & 5. CLOTH OF STARS
WINNING REGION (COMPOSITE WIN) SELECTION: REST OF WORLD (C4)
S2-3 Prix de l'Opera
The G1 Prix de l'Opera, run over 2,000m, hasn’t been won by an Irish-trained horse since ALEXANDER GOLDRUN landed the prize for Jim Bolger back in 2004.
However, the betting suggests that run is about to end, with Aidan O’Brien’s RHODODENDRON expected to go off favourite on Sunday. She went off favourite for the 1,600m 1000 Guineas back in May, but couldn’t get past stablemate WINTER, who takes aim at the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. The 3YO then put in a cracking effort behind wonder-filly ENABLE to finish second in the 2,405m G1 Epsom Oaks. She was beaten comfortably by five lengths that day, but that was only because she didn’t get the extended trip and was outstayed in the final furlong. She was six lengths clear of the third and almost four clear of fourth, so that represents very good form.
Stablemate HYDRANGEA caused a shock earlier this month when getting the better of WINTER at Leopardstown by the shortest of distances in the G1 Matron Stakes over 1,600m. She’s clearly a talented filly but has been forced to settle for placed efforts behind WINTER four times already this season and will be relieved to see her challenge elsewhere. As well as beating WINTER last time out, she also got the better of her at Leopardstown over 1,600m at the beginning of the season and should go close, especially as Ryan Moore has chosen to rider her.
LEFT HAND has put in a couple of cracking efforts in G1 company in recent weeks, finishing third in both the 2,000m G1 Prix Jean Romanet and the 2,400m G1 Prix Vermeille. BATEEL and JOURNEY beat her in the Prix Vermeille, but that rates as really strong form, especially as LEFT HAND was bumped around a bit, before being hampered when preparing to make an effort. She will have a tough time denying O’Brien and his trio of entries, but she looks one of the most likely candidates when it comes to spoiling his party.
Dermot Weld is another Irish raider looking to plunder the prize money on Sunday. Despite a relatively quiet season by his standards, his entry SHAMREEN comes into the race with a great chance having won two on the bounce. This will be tougher, but the manner of those victories, a combined seven lengths in the G2 2,000m Blandford Stakes and G3 2,000m Royal Whip Stakes, suggests she will cope. She is another who has no worries about the trip and conditions and is clearly on the up and in form.
WUHEIDA represents the powerful Godolphin outfit and was successful at this meeting 12 months ago when landing the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1,600m. That victory came at the expense of a well-fancied O’Brien entry and she can go close having run really well at Leopardstown earlier this month when finishing fourth in a blanket finish.
Pascal Bary’s yard is in red-hot form at the moment and his SENGA looks the best chance France has of winning the race. She caused a shock when landing the 2,100m G1 Prix de Diane at Chantilly in June but could only back it up with a third behind SOBETSU and ONTHEMOONAGAIN in a G2 company at Deauville.
NEZWAAH won a G1 at the Curragh over 2,000m back in July when beating O’Brien’s RAIN GODDESS by three lengths before finishing fourth in a very classy field, which included ENABLE, in the G1 2,371m Yorkshire Oaks.
QUEEN’S TRUST finished a good third behind ENABLE and CORONET in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks and could prove best of the rest. However, she wouldn’t want any more rain to fall having put in all her best efforts on a better surface.
SELECTIONS: 12. RHODODENDRON, 6. HYDRANGEA, 5. LEFT HAND, 1. SHAMREEN & 2. QUEEN’S TRUST
WINNING REGION (COMPOSITE WIN) SELECTION: IRELAND (C4)
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3: Banker – 12. RHODODENDRON
Selections – 6. HYDRANGEA, 5. LEFT HAND, 1. SHAMREEN & 2. QUEEN’S TRUST
S2-4: Banker – 4. SIGNS OF BLESSING
Selections – 11. MARSHA, 2. BATTAASH, 8. FINSBURY SQUARE & 5. PROFITABLE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 12. RHODODENDRON, 6. HYDRANGEA & 5. LEFT HAND
S2-4: Multiple – 4. SIGNS OF BLESSING, 11. MARSHA & 2. BATTAASH
S2-5: Multiple – 4. ACLAIM, 1. KARAR & 2. ZELZAL
S2-4 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
The biggest test of speed at Chantilly on Arc day comes in the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp over 1,000m.
Last year’s winner MARSHA lines up again with jockey Luke Morris vying for his third win in the race after scoring in 2016 and on GILT EDGE GIRL in 2010. The 4YO filly has been ultra-consistent at the top level this season, winning the G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m on her seasonal reappearance, the 1,000m G1 Nunthorpe last time out and not finishing outside the top three in her runs at Royal Ascot, Goodwood and the Curragh in between. By ACCLAMATION, she handles cut in the ground but wouldn’t want things to get too soft with all of her best form on quicker going.
SIGNS OF BLESSING, winner of the 1,200m G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest in 2016, didn’t run on Arc day last year. Instead, the son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT took aim at the 1,200m G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot where he finished fourth to THE TIN MAN. Although 1,000m looked on the sharp side when returning to Ascot for the G1 King’s Stand Stakes and finishing in midfield, the good to firm ground was against him that day and he should go better on this softer surface. He has the speed to compete in top class contests over 1,000m and the stamina to stay 1,200m, so soft ground over this minimum trip looks ideal. He looks the one to beat.
Soft ground will also suit FINSBURY SQUARE. His sire, SIYOUNI, won the 1,400m Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day in 2009 and relished soft ground. FINSBURY SQUARE was fourth in this race last year at odds of 50/1 and, while he might be a bit shorter than that this time around, he could sneak into the places at a nice each-way price. He ran very well to finish fifth in the 1,200m G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes on unsuitably quick ground and has to be on the shortlist for this.
Some feared that conditions had gone against BATTAASH when he lined up on soft ground in the 1,000m G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood over the summer. However, he blew away a high-class field that day, stretching clear of race favourite PROFITABLE by over two lengths. The son of DARK ANGEL ran in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes just three weeks later and that may have come too soon for him. He hit the front quite early on having found little cover and subsequently weakened in the closing stages to hold on for fourth. After a longer break he should be fully wound up for a big run and can get amongst the places.
All of PROFITABLE’s best form has come over 1,000m and he is another to consider. Even though he’s yet to get his head in front this year, and his position as Clive Cox’s stable star has been assumed by the exciting HARRY ANGEL, he shouldn’t be written off. He was second to BATTAASH in the G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood, a race that many expected him to win. Running slightly detached on the stands side, the race unfolded on the far rail without him and he struggled to keep up with the pace. Yet, having won the G1 King’s Stand Stakes in 2016, before finishing second in the same race this year, he is a proven top-level performer and shouldn’t be discounted at a decent each-way price.
CARAVAGGIO was the sprinter on everyone’s lips earlier this season. Aidan O’Brien’s 3YO sprint sensation scorched to success in the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m at Royal Ascot, before coming up short in the G1 July Cup over 1,200m and then disappointing in the 1,300m G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest. Despite returning to form over 1,000m in the G2 Flying Five Stakes in Ireland, his trainer Aidan O’Brien has opted to run stablemates ALPHABET instead. He finished runner-up to CARAVAGGIO in the Flying Five Stakes before another second last time out in the G3 Renaissance Stakes over 1,200m. This is another big step up in class for the filly and she’ll have to run a personal best to get involved.
SELECTIONS: 4. SIGNS OF BLESSING, 11. MARSHA, 2. BATTAASH, 8. FINSBURY SQUARE & 5. PROFITABLE
S2-5 Prix de la Foret
The G1 Prix de la Foret, run over 1,400m, is always a highly competitive race and is often seen as a stepping stone to the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile. It is a race in which British and Irish-trained horses have a great record, winning four of the last six renewals, and the British raiders have a strong hand to play again.
ACLAIM is likely to start favourite for the race, and this is no surprise given his two most recent efforts, culminating in a win in the 1,405m G2 Park Stakes at Doncaster last month. His penultimate run was in a G1 at Deauville, where to his credit he ran a strong race to finish second despite needing further and finding the ground conditions plenty fast enough. ACLAIM tends to lack the stamina for 1,600m, and finds 1,200m too much of a speed test, meaning that a fairly run race on soft ground over 1,400m at Chantilly looks ideal for the Martyn Meade-trained 4YO. The only concern that punters should have with this horse is that he lacks G1-winning form.
KARAR has a solid record at Chantilly, running well on Arc trials day and striking in the G3 Prix du Pin over 1,400m. It is clear from his last run that a gelding operation this summer worked its magic on the Francis-Henri Graffard-trained runner, and he hasn’t had a hard season, being given a month off since his last run. He is a different horse on soft ground, and is very much one for the shortlist given his strong second-placed finish to LIMATO in last year’s G1 Prix de la Foret on unsuitably good ground.
The Jean-Claude Rouget-trained ZELZAL is prominent in the betting. He is an interesting French runner given the fact that this is his first run over 1,400m since his maiden win. ZELZAL has been running well this season but hasn’t quite been finishing off his races, most recently in the 1,600m G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, and Sunday’s drop back to 1,400m could revitalise him.
Richard Fahey’s horses are running well, and he will be looking to claim another valuable French prize following RIBCHESTER’s G1 win at Chantilly in September. The North Yorkshire-based trainer is represented in this contest by TOSCANINI, who ran a strong race to finish second in a hot-looking 1,400m York G3 on his latest start back in August. The Godolphin-owned gelding has been kept back since that run, and the break will have done him the world of good ahead of Chantilly. TOSCANINI won a 1,200m G3 at the Curragh last season, and his run last time out showed promise that he may be back to something like his best. 1400m at Chantilly will suit him, and he looks good value for each-way punters in this contest, although winning it could be a struggle given the quality of this G1 field.
Kevin Ryan’s horses have been running very well since his stable recovered from an outbreak of equine herpes, and his BRANDO could offer some value here. Excuses can be made for his recent run at Haydock, where ground conditions were extreme. However, the rain-softened surface at Chantilly on Sunday shouldn’t be a problem, with four of his career wins coming with soft in the going description. BRANDO has made a habit of running well at long odds, placing third in this year’s G1 July Cup and beating ACLAIM in a Deauville G1 company on his penultimate start. Providing the ground doesn’t become extremely testing, BRANDO has every chance of reaching the winners’ enclosure, capping what has been a great season so far for the son of PIVOTAL.
The French-trained ATTENDU won a 1,600m G3 company on his latest start back in August, albeit against only four rivals. He handles testing ground and stays well, so should come into consideration if the Prix de la Foret becomes a real test of stamina.
SELECTIONS: 4. ACLAIM, 1. KARAR, 2. ZELZAL, 5. TOSCANINI & 3. BRANDO
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