 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for British Champions Day (S1-4 to S1-8) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-4 British Champions Sprint Stakes
HARRY ANGEL has lit up the sprint division this season and he looks the one to beat in the 1,200m G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes. The 3YO’s back-to-back G1 wins over 1,200m in the G1 July Cup at Newmarket and G1 Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock were electric. The son of DARK ANGEL was on the front end throughout in the G1 July Cup and looking like he could be past come the furlong pole, but a couple of cracks of the whip and he burst away from his rivals. The same tactics were employed at Haydock on heavy ground two months later and we got the same eye-catching result. HARRY ANGEL put in a ‘catch me if you can’ run that day and nothing was getting close to him at the finish. He’s the most exciting sprinter in training in Europe and he looks set to race on as a 4YO which will please his army of fans. Having triumphed on ground ranging from good to firm to heavy, the showers that could hit Ascot wouldn’t scupper HARRY ANGEL’s chances either.
CARAVAGGIO, THE TIN MAN and TASLEET have all finished behind him this season and they look his main challengers again here. CARAVAGGIO, trained by the world record-seeking Aidan O’Brien, could throw up the biggest challenge to the favourite. He beat HARRY ANGEL in the G1 Commonwealth Cup over this course and distance in June and was then sent off favourite for the G1 July Cup but only managed fourth. Having settled nicely in behind the leaders, he met a few traffic problems and was forced to make a late run up the near rail. It looks unlikely that he would have reversed the form with winner HARRY ANGEL, but he would likely have got a fair bit closer. O’Brien has said he’s the fastest horse he’s ever trained and if everything goes his way he’ll push HARRY ANGEL all the way.
THE TIN MAN and TASLEET finished further back in eight and tenth respectively in that same race at Newmarket but could be closer here. Like CARAVAGGIO, THE TIN MAN was squeezed out of it a bit in the closing stages and may have made the places with a clearer run. He’s won three of his five starts at Ascot, including this race 12 months ago, and is versatile in terms of ground too.
TASLEET finished last in the G1 July Cup but that was very much a blip in what has been a very consistent season. William Haggas’ colt came home powerfully to score by two and a half lengths in the 1,200m G2 Duke of York Stakes at York in May. He followed that up with a close second to THE TIN MAN over course and distance in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and should be in the shake up again. Also second to HARRY ANGEL in the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes on heavy ground last time out, rain wouldn’t harm his chances either.
Another who would run well on a softer surface is dual G1 winner QUIET REFLECTION. All of her best form has come with cut in the ground, including wins on soft and good to soft in a pair of G1s last season, so her trainer Karl Burke will be hoping the rain materializes.
BRANDO, an impressive winner of the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest over 1,300m in Deauville, is entitled to run well.
SELECTIONS: 10. HARRY ANGEL, 9. CARAVAGGIO, 6. THE TIN MAN, 5. TASLEET & 12. QUIET REFLECTION
S1-5 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
It has been a very long season for some of these fillies and mares in this G1 2,392m contest with several having been on the go since May. The most obvious starting point is last year’s winner JOURNEY who recorded an impressive four length victory 12 months ago having finished an unlucky runner-up back in 2015. John Gosden’s mare will be having her final racecourse start this Saturday before being retired to stud. She has had a relatively light campaign to date and started the season with a well beaten fifth of 10 runners behind HIGHLAND REEL in the G1 2,405m Coronation Cup at Epsom, although I’m prepared to forgive her for that. Traditionally she needs that first outing to put her straight and Epsom is also an extremely unorthodox track which she had never previously encountered. However, it is slightly harder to forgive her disappointing display when well beaten in the 2,000m G1 Pretty Polly Stakes on her next start at the Curragh in July. The trip was definitely on the short side for her to be seen at her best, but she should have finished closer than a remote tenth of 11 runners. Having spent the rest of the summer off, she bounced back to finish second behind BATEEL in the G1 2,400m Prix Vermeille last month. She is likely to be hard to beat back at her beloved Ascot with the unstoppable Frankie Dettori again in the saddle.
If the ground gets bottomless, she could well struggle to reverse the G1 Prix Vermeille placings with French raider BATEEL who has been a revelation over this distance this season. Having won all of her last three starts, she is improving but is without doubt a better mare on soft ground.
At a much bigger price, there could be a little bit of value in fellow French runner LEFT HAND who finished third behind BATEEL and JOURNEY in the G1 Prix Vermeille. She had a troubled passage that day and again was hampered at a crucial time when flying home late to finish fifth over an inadequate 2,000m in the G1 Prix de l’Opera. This 2,392m trip is far more to her liking and as a former G1 winner herself she looks the value alternative to the leading fancies.
3YO fillies have won three of the six runnings of this valuable prize and the best of that generation looks to be JOURNEY’s stablemate CORONET. She won over this course and distance in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot and seems to handle all types of ground. The useful weight-for-age allowance can only aide her cause and she has had over a month to get over the exertions of finishing fifth in the G1 2,905m St Leger Stakes last time. It is significant that Frankie Dettori prefers the chances of JOURNEY, though, as he would have had the choice between the pair.
It seems strange to have got this far without mentioning Aidan O’Brien. He saddles HYDRANGEA who was only beaten a head in the G1 2,000m Prix de l’Opera last time. She had previously won a G1 over 1,600m on her previous start, so this 2,392m trip has to be a concern. Yet, if she does stay then she has the form in the book to be a danger to all.
SELECTIONS: 3. JOURNEY, 4. LEFT HAND, 2. BATEEL, 7. CORONET & 9. HYDRANGEA
WINNING REGION (COMPOSITE WIN) SELECTION: GREAT BRITAIN (C2)
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker –3. JOURNEY
Selections – 4. LEFT HAND, 2. BATEEL, 7. CORONET & 9. HYDRANGEA
S1-6: Banker –8. BEAT THE BANK
Selections – 4. RIBCHESTER, 7. AL WUKAIR, 9. CHURCHILL & 14. THUNDER SNOW
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
FRANKEL won this 1,600m G1 in 2011, and the race always attracts a high-class field, with this year being no exception.
BEAT THE BANK has been one of Andrew Balding’s flagship horses this season, and arrives at Ascot with a hat-trick of wins under his belt. Connections have continued to raise the bar, and their faith in the horse was rewarded with an impressive win in a 1,600m Newmarket G2 last month. While BEAT THE BANK is yet to run in a G1 race, he has done nothing wrong so far and has thrived since being stepped up in distance to 1,600m. He stays very well and a bit of cut in the ground will work in his favour at Ascot. Champion jockey Jim Crowley takes the ride, and this progressive horse has a leading chance.
The Richard Fahey-trained RIBCHESTER is a top-quality colt, having won three 1,600m G1 races this season so far. He is a proven performer on a variety of ground, so the unsettled weather forecast ahead of this weekend’s racing at Ascot is no cause for concern. Fahey has given the colt over a month to recover from his most recent run, where he won the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp over 1,600m at Chantilly. RIBCHESTER’s run in France showed that he has put his defeat in the 1,600m G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood firmly behind him, and connections will have their horse primed for this contest. He does, however, face a stiffer task at Ascot, as he is carrying more weight than his younger rivals. William Buick is booked to ride and the pair have a fruitful partnership, winning four times. RIBCHESTER has excellent form at Ascot and he will be very hard to beat.
AL WUKAIR represents France in this, and Andre Fabre’s horses must always be feared. He is a lightly raced horse with only six career starts and has been given a two month break ahead of this. He won his most recent run, the 1,600m G1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville, where he beat fellow Ascot runner THUNDER SNOW. A repeat of that run would see him go close.
Aidan O’Brien’s CHURCHILL is prominent in the betting, and that is no surprise given the fact that he was a dual 1,600m Classic winner earlier in the season. The concern is that he has finished a beaten favourite on his last three starts and it is hard to be overly confident about his chances at Ascot. However, O’Brien has given CHURCHILL a one month break and if he can reproduce some of his early season form then that puts him in with every chance.
THUNDER SNOW is a horse that connections hold in high regard, having decided to run him in the 2,000m G1 Kentucky Derby earlier in the year. He made life very tough for his rider on that occasion, but those problems have now been fixed and he ran out a good winner of the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,600m at Chantilly in July. Christophe Soumillon knows how to handle him and he should come into consideration.
Some give in the ground at Ascot will work in favour of BEAT THE BANK’S veteran stablemate, HERE COMES WHEN. His stand-out piece of form came when defeating RIBCHESTER in the 1,600m G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Balding has been patient since and given him two months off since that run in pursuit of rain-softened ground. Even though we may not see him cause the same upset as at Goodwood, it would be no surprise if he snatched a place in this race at a big price.
SELECTIONS: 8. BEAT THE BANK, 4. RIBCHESTER, 7. AL WUKAIR, 9. CHURCHILL & 14. THUNDER SNOW
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 8. BEAT THE BANK, 4. RIBCHESTER & 7. AL WUKAIR
S1-7: Multiple – 9. CRACKSMAN, 7. BRAMETOT & 6. BARNEY ROY
S1-8: Multiple – 10. LORD GLITTERS, 12. ZABEEL PRINCE & 1. FIRMAMENT
S1-7 Champion Stakes
The G1 Champion Stakes, run over 1,993m, has only been won by a 3YO once in the past eight years, with ALMANZOR claiming glory 12 months ago. Yet CRACKSMAN, trained by John Gosden, is expected to go off favourite here as he bids to emulate the French raider’s achievement. He certainly has the form to land the prize fund, having won successive G2 races at York and Chantilly this season in emphatic fashion. VENICE BEACH was cast aside in the G2 2,371m Great Voltigeur Stakes, while he was three lengths clear of AVILIUS at the line in the G2 Prix Niel over 2,400m. But most impressively, he was only beaten a length into third behind WINGS OF EAGLES and CLIFFS OF MOHER in the G1 2,405m Derby Stakes, before finishing a neck second in the Irish equivalent. That is very strong form and he looks sure to go close with the ground to suit.
France’s chances of landing the prize sit with BRAMETOT, who won the G1 1,600m French 2000 Guineas in May. He followed that up with victory next time up in the G1 2,100m Prix du Jockey Club, but then disappointed at Deauville before running respectably in the Arc. Jean-Claude Rouget’s entry will have to be back to his very best form to feature, but if he does he can make the places and land some valuable prize money.
Trainer Richard Hannon has already confirmed BARNEY ROY will be ridden more patiently than at York when he was beaten by ULYSSES in the 2,051m G1 Juddmonte International Stakes. He won the G1 St James's Palace Stakes over 1,594m at Ascot in June but it remains to be seen whether he cope with the credentials of CRACKSMAN.
O’Brien has never won the G1 Champion Stakes but goes armed with two chances in the form of HIGHLAND REEL and CLIFFS OF MOHER. It’s CLIFFS OF MOHER who looks the most likely contender to hit the frame despite disappointing since running so well in the G1 Derby Stakes behind stablemate WINGS OF EAGLES. He won on his seasonal reappearance in the Listed 2,064m Dee Stakes at Chester, but things haven’t really gone to plan since. He suffered a troubled passage in the G1 Eclipse Stakes before finishing outside the places in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes and the G1 Irish Champion Stakes.
HIGHLAND REEL arrives on the back of a fourth placed finish behind ENABLE in the G1 2,392m King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The 5YO was targeting a three-timer that day having landed G1 prizes in the Coronation Cup and Prince of Wales's Stakes. However, both games on faster ground, so O’Brien will be hoping the rain due to fall at Ascot ahead of racing is minimal.
Elsewhere, POET’S WORD looks the best of the rest having finished in the first two in his past six racecourse appearances, including the G3 Glorious Stakes over 2,398m.
RECOLETOS landed the G2 Prix Greffulhe over 2,000m ahead of WALDGEIST in May but will struggle to land a blow in this field, as will the remaining runners.
SELECTIONS: 9. CRACKSMAN, 7. BRAMETOT, 6. BARNEY ROY, 8. CLIFFS OF MOHER & 2. HIGHLAND REEL
WINNING REGION (COMPOSITE WIN) SELECTION: GREAT BRITAIN (C2)
S1-8 Balmoral Handicap
There are not many handicaps in the UK worth more than the 1,600m Balmoral Handicap, which brings the curtain down on British Champions Day. Run over Ascot’s straight track, the likely favourite is Roger Varian’s ZABEEL PRINCE who comfortably won a 1,575m handicap at York last Friday. With three wins from four career starts, that performance marked down this son of LOPE DE VEGA as a seriously progressive horse who is likely to be plying his trade in Group company next season. He beat his rivals with the minimum of fuss and the poor weather forecast will cause no alarms as soft ground suits him well. It would be no surprise if he was to prove too good for this group of largely exposed handicappers, but he will only have had eight days to recover and he’s taking on better and more experienced rivals here.
The one who is most likely to stop him winning four in a row is LORD GLITTERS from the David O’Meara stable. Formerly trained in France, this expensive recruit was a huge eyecatcher on his first start in Britain, finishing with a flourish to almost land a valuable 1,400m handicap at Ascot two weeks ago. Although his trainer would have been disappointed not to win that race, it now means he doesn’t have to carry a penalty in this and the step up to 1,600m is certain to suit. His four career wins have all come over 1,600m or further, so to produce an effort like that over 1,400m was very impressive. It looks as though this race has been the target, soft ground is ideal and it would be a big surprise if this son of WHIPPER doesn’t go very close.
Funnily enough, one of the biggest threats to LORD GLITTERS could come from his very own stable, as top weight FIRMAMENT should run well. He finished third in this race 12 months ago and is only a fraction higher in the weights this time around. Admittedly, he hasn’t won since August last year, but he has put in a number of decent displays. Trends followers will notice that 5YOs have won all three renewals of this race and he’s one of just four from that age bracket to take their chance. He probably doesn’t have anything to hide from the handicapper, but he is consistent and will be hard to keep out of the frame.
Richard Hannon has three bullets to fire in this race and the market thinks that THE GRAPE ESCAPE has the best chance of his trio. He comes here trying to land the hat-trick after wins at Sandown and Pontefract, and is clearly an improving horse. However, they were both in Class 3 handicaps so this represents a step up in grade against experienced handicappers.
GEORGE WILLIAM won well at Salisbury earlier this month and can’t be ruled out, but the more interesting contender is OH THIS IS US. Narrowly touched off in the historic 1,600m Lincoln Handicap in April, he has won twice since and even took his place in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over course and distance in June. Ryan Moore is back on board for the first time since that narrow defeat in the Lincoln and at likely big odds he can outrun his price.
John Gosden’s GM HOPKINS has run well at Ascot in the past and is another with claims, especially if the ground deteriorates. He was well-fancied for this race last year but disappointed, yet he is much lower in the weights now and is a decent horse on his day.
SELECTIONS: 10. LORD GLITTERS, 12. ZABEEL PRINCE, 1. FIRMAMENT, 5. OH THIS IS US & 8. GM HOPKINS
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