 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Lexus Stakes
ALWARD is very fit, has minimum weight and Kerrin McEvoy to ride so should be hard to beat in a race where every runner has a chance.
HARLEM should get a cosy run from barrier 4 and although he was disappointing in the G1 Caulfield Cup, this is much easier. Like some of his rivals, HARLEM needs to win to secure a G1 Melbourne Cup start. Taking the blinkers off is a good move.
It might pay to forgive ALOFT for his last start failure at Caulfield as he had to work hard early to lead. Go on his previous form which would make him a live chance in this race. Ben Melham to ride is a bonus. This stable loves Flemington.
ECUADOR should settle in the first three and although he has a big weight, he has a class edge on most of the opposition. This distance is a query, but he should get all the favours from barrier 1.
CISMONTANE is the likely leader and very fit. He is one-paced, which is a concern, but if left alone in front he could be hard to get past. Has placed at his last two starts and will run a bold race again.
SELECTIONS: 9. ALWARD, 2. HARLEM, 4. ALOFT, 1. ECUADOR & 7. CISMONTANE
S1-2 Coolmore Stud Stakes
TRAPEZE ARTIST is an emerging star by champion sire SNITZEL and is the one to beat. Trained in Sydney by Gerald Ryan and created a huge impression at his last race start winning the G1 Golden Rose Stakes over 1,400m. On that occasion he was trapped wide all the way, yet still bolted in.
From the in-form Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott stable, powerfully built filly INVINCIBLE STAR could be the surprise packet. She won down the straight this time last year and her win at Caulfield last start on 14th October was outstanding. She possesses plenty of natural speed and I expect her to measure up here.
Godolphin colt VIRIDINE has looked impressive while compiling an unbeaten record. This is by far his biggest test yet, but he looks a colt of considerable promise, so should be respected.
There is not much between CATCHY, FORMALITY and TULIP, they are all are classy and have the benefit of good recent form and straight track experience, which is crucial.
Stablemates HOUTZEN and EPITMUM should both be respected. HOUTZEN trialled nicely here recently and all her runs have been in top company, while EPTIMUM is flying.
SELECTIONS: 1. TRAPEZE ARTIST, 19. INVINCIBLE STAR, 5. VIRIDINE, 16. CATCHY & 10. EPTIMUM
S1-3 Myer Classic
3YO filly SHOALS takes on some tough older rivals but she has plenty of class on her side. She is ready to peak following a solid second to ALOISIA at Caulfield on 14th October. Not many fillies contest this race but those which do are usually hard to beat. Barrier 11 should ensure a trouble free run.
Top class filly GLOBAL GLAMOUR will be competitive. Likes to press forward and when given a cosy run she is very difficult to get past. Her recent win at Caulfield on 21st October should have her much fitter this time. Barrier 3 is ideal for her racing style.
SILENT SEDITION has fared well with barrier 4. This should ensure a soft run, unlike his latest run when she was caught wide all the way at Caulfield. Sure to be competitive after finishing close behind some classy rivals last start.
DIXIE BLOSSOMS must be included after drawing nicely in barrier 9. Her latest run over 1,200m in Sydney should have her peaking for this back at her preferred distance.
There is never much between FOXPLAY and GLOBAL GLAMOUR, so expect a similar run here. This seems her ideal distance, but she will still need to be ridden quietly with cover. When she is ridden like this she is able to finish strongly but barrier 12 is some concern.
SELECTIONS: 16. SHOALS, 2. GLOBAL GLAMOUR, 5. SILENT SEDITION, 8. DIXIE BLOSSOMS & 3. FOXPLAY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 16. SHOALS
Selections – 2. GLOBAL GLAMOUR, 5. SILENT SEDITION, 8. DIXIE BLOSSOMS & 3. FOXPLAY
S1-4: Banker – 1. ACE HIGH
Selections – 11. OCEAN’S FOURTEEN, 6. SULLY, 2. TANGLED & 5. MAIN STAGE
S1-4 Victoria Derby
This is an even renewal of this race, but tough Sydney-trained galloper ACE HIGH brings the strongest form into the G1. His most recent win was over 2,000m at Randwick when he led and fought off all challengers, including TANGLED and SULLY. Sure to press forward again from barrier 3 and may lead.
OCEAN’S FOURTEEN creates plenty of interest as a well-bred, lightly raced stayer that burst into calculations with a strong second to WEATHER WITH YOU at his most recent run. He looked a real Derby horse to me. Likely to press forward from barrier 7.
TANGLED and SULLY are both likely to settle back in the field again, but could be competitive again. They both ran on strongly last start but were unable to get past ACE HIGH and it’s reasonable to expect a similar battle here. ACE HIGH has a significant advantage with his low draw.
MAIN STAGE is an exciting but still immature stayer and looms as a major player. His last-to-first win at Flemington on 7th October over 1,800m stamped him as a classy prospect. He easily ran past a horse in good form called CLIFF’S EDGE on that occasion, so he must be included. Likely to settle near tail of the field and be working home late.
Despite bringing country form into this race, GREYCLIFFE is a horse with a future. His trainer Matt Cumani knows how to train a stayer, the horse just keeps improving, so he has to be respected. Likely to slot in forward of mid-field if possible.
SELECTIONS: 1. ACE HIGH, 11. OCEAN’S FOURTEEN, 6. SULLY, 2. TANGLED & 5. MAIN STAGE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 1. ACE HIGH, 11. OCEAN’S FOURTEEN & 6. SULLY
S1-5: Multiple – 1. TOSEN STARDOM, 11. SO SI BON & 2. LUCKY HUSSLER
S1-6: Multiple – 11. RICH CHARM, 15. MAN FROM UNCLE & 9. RAVI
S1-5 Cantala Stakes
The minimum weight of 115lbs gives the bottom weights a chance to figure in the finish, but top weight TOSEN STARDOM is clearly still the one to beat. The former Japanese star treated his rivals with contempt last start in a G1 at Caulfield over a mile. He was wide all the way, yet still bolted in.
Enigmatic galloper SO SI BON has promised to be a star, but is yet to deliver. If things go his way, he is capable of winning a race like this with a light weight. Most of the genuine chances are at the top of the weights. Barrier 12 should be fine. Hasn't raced for more than a month but has had one trial to maintain fitness.
LUCKY HUSSLER returned to form last Saturday when he bolted in over 1,600m. Admittedly he had the race run to suit, but he looked terrific before the race and should be further improved. He is a genuine big race performer so must include. Barrier 14 is some concern.
TOM MELBOURNE is racing consistently but never seems to win. Looks in with a winnable weight so has to be respected. Barrier 6 suits, from where he will roll forward and be hard to run down.
SOVEREIGN NATION looks well-suited with 115lbs and barrier 3. He seems sure to get a cosy run and his Flemington form is good. His last two runs have been in G1 races and he has performed well.
SELECTIONS: 1. TOSEN STARDOM, 11. SO SI BON, 2. LUCKY HUSSLER, 5. TOM MELBOURNE & 10. SOVEREIGN NATION
S1-6 Linlithgow Stakes
Consistent galloper RICH CHARM has excellent straight track form. Needs to be ridden just behind the speed and saved for one final drive to the line. Not from one of the high profile stables, so that usually means punters get a bit of extra value. Barrier 7 is ideal.
MAN FROM UNCLE creates plenty of interest. He is lightly raced and showed solid form in Sydney earlier this year. This stable in renowned for producing a winner at this carnival and often at good odds. Is trialling well and barrier 12 is ideal.
Talented mare RAVI profiles nicely for this race. Been freshened since a good third at Caulfield, in a race where she was unlucky. Looks suited to straight racing because she can sit behind the speed and produce a big finish. Barrier 1 presents a challenge for Kerrin McEvoy.
KEEN ARRAY has very good form down the straight 1,200m course and that is definitely an advantage. He is racing well and should be considered a winning chance. The weight is a concern, but barrier 11 is ideal.
THE MONSTAR has been racing consistently on Sydney tracks, mostly in better races than this. His best form is on wet tracks, but must be respected on any surface.
SWEET SHERRY was four lengths away from the winner in a tough race on Caulfield Cup Day and that form would be at least as good as this race. Barrier 9 suits her racing pattern.
SELECTIONS: 11. RICH CHARM, 15. MAN FROM UNCLE, 9. RAVI, 2. KEEN ARRAY & 3. THE MONSTAR
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