 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S2) (Patrick Payne)
S2-1 Schweppes Flemington Fling
PROPERTY will be much fitter this time following his solid first-up run at Caulfield. The big weight is some concern but top jockey Craig Williams is a bonus. The speed should be good and Williams will be looking for a cosy run with cover before finishing hard late.
Consistent colt BANDIPUR looks suited here coming off a six week break. Has won three from five with two seconds this preparation. His most recent win at Caulfield was full of merit as he was trapped wide all the way. Barrier 8 is ideal.
PARET creates great interest from the Chris Waller stable. Two career runs have both been eye-catching. His racing pattern so far would indicate he is looking for longer trips, but he oozes class, so must be included.
MADEENATY is a consistent filly with solid form. Probably hasn’t lived up to expectations so far, but her form at this track and distance is an advantage.
PROPERTY's stablemate NATURE STRIP is still very green but is also showing plenty of natural ability. The straight track may not suit such an inexperienced horse but cannot be left out.
SELECTIONS: 1. PROPERTY, 2. BANDIPUR, 9. PARET, 4. MADEENATY & 8. NATURE STRIP
S2-2 Lexus Hybrid Plate
OUR CROWN MISTRESS is trying for four straight wins and looks like the one to beat again. She has created a big impression so far and can hold the lead from barrier 1. A striking grey filly, she certainly catches the eye in the parade ring.
COUNTERPLAY will be ridden by Joao Moreira. He should be hard to beat, but the start will be key. If she begins well she should get a cosy run behind the speed. Her latest run behind OUR CROWN MISTRESS was terrific after a slow start. All of her recent form reads well.
WARRANTY is a beautifully bred filly trained by Peter & Paul Snowden. She is likely to press forward from barrier 7 and sit outside OUR CROWN MISTRESS. Her latest win at Randwick was impressive, and she must be respected.
WARRANTY'S stablemate BOOROOJ looked very impressive winning recently at Seymour. On that occasion she travelled beautifully and won easily – giving every indication that she is a filly on the rise. Barrier 13 is some concern.
SELECTIONS: 2. OUR CROWN MISTRESS, 3. COUNTERPLAY, 6. WARRANTY & 12. BOOROOJ
S2-3 Melbourne Cup
MAX DYNAMITE is the one I have on top in what might be the most open Melbourne Cup in history. The William Mullins-trained 8YO was an unlucky second in this race two years ago and although the trainer has set his stayer for this race. The factors that swing it in his favour though are barrier 2 and big race jockey Zac Purton. From that draw MAX DYNAMITE is assured a beautiful run through the race. Word out of the quarantine centre is that this horse is flying on the training track.
MARMELO gets the services of star jockey Hugh Bowman and his recent form is excellent. Profiles beautifully for this race having won the G2 Prix Kergorlay before a strong sixth in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Steps up to the right distance range now and although barrier 16 doesn't look good on paper, Bowman will be looking for a trailing run anyway.
Last year Melbourne Cup winner ALMANDIN gets legendary Italian jockey Frankie Dettori to ride. Three runs this preparation has the 8YO primed for this and it is clearly his best distance. Must carry more weight than 12 months ago of course, but may be returning in even better form as well.
HUMIDOR gave the mighty mare WINX all she could handle last start in the G1 Cox Plate and now stretches out to two miles. A lower barrier would have been better, but if Blake Shinn can get HUMIDOR to settle through the first part of the race, he could run a big race.
Joao Moreira will have to weave some magic from barrier 21 on THOMAS HOBSON. Another from the stable of William Mullins, THOMAS HOBSON has proven form over the distance and stamina won't be a problem. From the draw he will need a super ride and a lot of luck to figure in the finish.
SELECTIONS: 9. MAX DYNAMITE, 5. MARMELO, 2. ALMANDIN, 3. HUMIDOR & 21. THOMAS HOBSON
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3: Banker – 9. MAX DYNAMITE
Selections – 5. MARMELO, 2. ALMANDIN, 3. HUMIDOR & 21. THOMAS HOBSON
S2-4: Banker – 12. PURE PRIDE
Selections – 7. BALF’S CHOICE, 5. TURNITAROUND, 4. MAURUS & 19. ODEON
S2-4 Melbourne Cup Day Plate
PURE PRIDE is a big, strong but enigmatic mare. She has loads of ability but gets back in her races and usually needs a lot of luck to win. Races well on the spacious Flemington track.
BALF’S CHOICE has won six of nine starts this season. Will press forward and give good sight. The step up in distance suits.
It may pay to forgive the last run of TURNITAROUND. He races well at this track. and is sure to race forward and get a cosy run.
MAURUS showed a return to form last start at Caulfield and should be strong at the end of the race. Likely to settle back from barrier 13, so will need things to go his way to win.
Classy middle distance galloper ODEON is suited here. I believe he is the best horse in that race, yet has the minimum weight – that should add up to a positive outcome. He was first emergency after fields were released, but he should get a run.
SELECTIONS: 12. PURE PRIDE, 7. BALF’S CHOICE, 5. TURNITAROUND, 4. MAURUS & 19. ODEON
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 12. PURE PRIDE, 7. BALF’S CHOICE & 5. TURNITAROUND
S2-5: Multiple – 3. FAATINAH, 12. SO YOU TOO & 10. CRYSTAL DREAMER
S2-6: Multiple – 3. COOL PASSION, 1. FUHRYK & 6. MISS GUNPOWDER
S2-5 MSS Security Sprint
FAATINAH might be the one best placed to win here. He goes well down the straight and barrier 12 is the best place to be drawn at this stage of the day. I am concerned that he hasn’t won for a while but this race might be his chance.
SO YOU TOO would be my top selection except barrier 2 is a worry. Getting blinkers on for the first time is a significant gear change for this horse and I expect it to have a positive impact. Zac Purton only needs a little luck to be in the finish.
CRYSTAL DREAMER is an honest galloper with an excellent winning strike rate. His recent run was in a high rating sprint at Caulfield and his effort was fine. He looks better-suited here on the bigger track.
I THOUGHT SO is racing consistently in Sydney and his recent run at 1,000m should have him primed for this. Has to be considered. CALANDA is a lightly raced galloper suited here. Tends to settle back in his races and run on strongly. The Snowden stable seem to know which races to put their horses in. Must be respected.
Quality mare OCEAN EMBERS is ready to show best. Gets back, so needs things to go her way to win. Can produce a big final 200m sectional.
SELECTIONS: 3. FAATINAH, 12. SO YOU TOO, 10. CRYSTAL DREAMER, 15. I THOUGHT SO & 6. CALANDA
S2-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
Emerging mare COOL PASSION has an excellent winning strike rate and great recent form. Likely to settle midfield on the outside and be strong late. Hard to beat coming off a second at G2 level.
FUHRYK should get a cosy run from barrier 4 and has Craig Williams onboard. The downside is that she has a big weight and is unproven at 1,400m. Her most recent win at Caulfield was most impressive, so she looms as the one to beat.
MISS GUNPOWDER maps well here and should be ready to produce her best. Had a tough run last start but still fought on well to finish third. Should get a soft run from barrier 6 this time, which will enable her to be strong at the finish.
PEDRENA meets COOL PASSION better at the weights following an excellent second to her at Caulfield on 14th October. This distance suits better and she must be included.
QUILATE is a high quality mare chasing three straight wins and should have the race run to suit. Expect her to settle behind midfield and be very strong late.
SELECTIONS: 3. COOL PASSION, 1. FUHRYK, 6. MISS GUNPOWDER, 13. PEDRENA & 4. QUILATE
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