Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Japan Cup

How much does the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn cost on the runners who fought it out on the bottomless ground? It is very important factor to cogitate about, when we try to predict this year’s G1 Japan Cup winner.

We had very wet days in Japan in October and torrential rain made the track at Tokyo like rice field. While the official going on the day of the Tenno Sho Autumn at Tokyo on 29th October was listed as soft, it was certainly worse than that, because many jockeys described it as “the worst ground I have ever experienced in my entire life” and the winning time, 2 minutes 8.3 seconds, is 12.2 seconds slower than the track record. As it was actually the war of attrition, I am worried it might cost too much on the runners, including KITASAN BLACK, winner of the Tenno Sho Autumn, who is arguably the best horse in training in Japan.

Although the directional properties are opposite, many of us remind the G1 Tenno Sho Spring at Kyoto in April, which was also very tough race, as the pace was furiously strong and new track record was established. As the result, the runners were really worn out and they could not perform well in next start, for example KITASAN BLACK, winner of the Tenno Sho Spring, was beaten ninth in next start, the G1 Takarazuka Kinen. No one could believe their eyes when they saw KITASAN BLACK ran so poorly, as he got the reputation for being a very consistent athlete.

KITASAN BLACK was breezed for the first time since the Tenno Sho Autumn on 15th November, 11 days before the Japan Cup. As it is usual that Hisashi Shimizu, who trains KITASAN BLACK, gives the first breeze for the major race on 17 or 18 days before the race day, Shimizu needed to give longer time for KITASAN BLACK to recover from the tough task in the Tenno Sho Autumn.

And SATONO ALADDIN, winner of the G1 Yasuda Kinen in June, was disappointing twelfth in the G1 Mile Championship last weekend. In fact, his previous start was the Tenno Sho Autumn.

From those facts, I don’t regard KITASAN BLACK highly, selecting him as my fifth choice for the Japan Cup.

My first choice is REY DE ORO, the 3YO G1 Japanese Derby winner. It is obvious that the standard of current 3YO crop in Japan is high. SUAVE RICHARD, second finisher in the G1 Japanese Derby, won the G2 Copa Republica Argentina on 5th November easily beating older horses. The G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup for 3YO and upwards fillies and mares on 12th November was won by MOZU KATCHAN, a 3YO filly. And the G1 Mile Championship for 3YO and upwards on 19th November was won by PERSIAN KNIGHT, a 3YO colt. Those results could be the proof that REY DE ORO is competitive in the quality field of the Japan Cup.

My second choice is CHEVAL GRAND, who finished good third in the Japan Cup last year. I regard this performance highly, because he came from too far back, while there was no pace. And it is encouraging factor that Hugh Bowman, one of best Australian jockeys, is booked for CHEVAL GRAND.

As five out of last ten running of the Japan Cup were won by fillies or mares, I think I should not ignore SOUL STIRRING, the 3YO G1 Japanese Oaks winner, who is my third choice.

And I think SOUNDS OF EARTH, who ran second in the Japan Cup last year, is a forgotten horse and is my fourth choice.

SELECTIONS: 2. REY DE ORO, 1. CHEVAL GRAND, 8. SOUL STIRRING, 5. SOUNDS OF EARTH & 4. KITASAN BLACK

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