Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Dubai Super Saturday (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

S1-1     Al Bastakiya

The 110 rated MASAR sets a strong standard in the 1,900m Listed Al Bastakiya. The Charlie Appleby-trained 3YO enjoyed a profitable campaign last year, which included a G3 win at Sandown over 1,400m and a close third to HAPPILY in a 1,600m G1 in France. These strong performances saw him sent off the favourite for the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar over 1,600m where he had a desperately unlucky run. Appleby has given him a break since and his record fresh is impressive having won both times. The only slight concern could be the step up in distance on an unfamiliar surface. He stayed on strongly at Del Mar, though, and should take plenty of stopping if on top form.

Godolphin look to have a strong hand in the race with MASAR’s stablemate LAST VOYAGE looking his most likely challenger. LAST VOYAGE tried dirt for the first time in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas over 1,600m on his return from an 120 day break just under a month ago. He finished a long way back in third behind GOLD TOWN and GOTTI, but recovered well after a slow start. The way he finished suggested a step up in trip would suit and an improved run is expected.

GOTTI finished half a length ahead of LAST VOYAGE last time on his first start over 1,600m. He had been inconsistent since moving to his new trainer before that run and his handler will be hoping for a similar run here. If he can repeat that run, he could get himself involved, but is a risky proposition based on his prior efforts.

YULONG WARRIOR takes a big step up in class here. He was last seen when winning a maiden at Meydan last month where he had the likes of ROY ORBISON in behind. He is facing far superior rivals here and looks up against it to trouble the market principles on all known form.

Another who steps up in trip is the Rashed Bouresly-trained WAQQAD. The 3YO has already run five times this year and his last run behind ZAMAN in the Listed Meydan Classic over 1,600m was a career best. He will be ridden for the first time by Andrea Atzeni and is officially the second highest rated horse in the race behind MASAR. WAQQAD is a horse that looks to be improving and if the step up in trip has the same effect as last time, he could challenge for the minor honours.

GOTTI and LAST VOYAGE both finished ahead of DAFFG in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas last time. That performance was somewhat disappointing considering his impressive victory over WASIM the time before. The form of that victory has been franked a couple of times since and his trainer Ahmad bin Harmash will be hoping he can return to that level here. The concern for DAFFG is that his best performances have been over a shorter distance and the 1,600m didn’t look like it fully played to his strengths last time out. He will need to prove as adept over 1,900m as he was over shorter trips to be involved.

SELECTIONS: 10. MASAR, 4. LAST VOYAGE, 7. WAQQAD, 2. GOTTI & 8. DAFFG

S1-2     Mahab Al Shimaal

Rated 112, COMICAS sets the standard in the 1,200m G3 Mahab Al Shimaal. The son of DISTORTED HUMOR is ultra-consistent, finishing out of the first three just once in his nine starts at Meydan, and he should be right there at the finish once again. Although beaten by MY CATCH in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint last time out, William Buick made his move too late that day and it would be no surprise to see him reverse that piece of form. The concern is that if he isn’t ridden on the pace, he could get caught out over this 1,200m trip and there’s a chance they could get away from him coming round the home bend.

MORAWIJ won this from the front last year and it could pay to side with one who is expected to be ridden more positively. MY CATCH is certainly one of those and he comes into the race in good form after a wide-margin victory over course and distance last time out. He made great use of his inside draw that day, easily hitting the front and able to save energy round the opening bend but could find it hard to replicate that run from stall 10. On the balance of things, COMICAS just edges it and is taken to reverse the form with MY CATCH.

DUBAWI gelding JORDAN SPORT has been running well in handicap company since arriving in Dubai this winter, including his win two starts back over 1,200m on turf at Meydan. The 5YO had some very useful horses in behind that day, including STEADY PACE, SIR MAXIMILIAN, TUPI and DUBAI ONE, so has to be on the shortlist. He’s yet to run on the dirt but was twice a winner on an artificial surface in the UK and, being by DUBAWI, this shouldn’t pose too much of a problem. It’s a slight shame that Gerald Mosse isn’t in the saddle for this but Adrie De Vries is a more than able deputy.

4YO TAAMOL is yet to have shown his best form since moving to Dubai from Sir Michael Stoute in the UK. He won a Listed contest over 1,400m at Newmarket before moving to Ali Rashid Al Rayhi, but has only placed in one of his five starts since. That came over course and distance last time out, though, finishing second to YALTA, and he could be turning the corner. On all known form he would have to put in a career best to get involved here, but he’s open to improvement.

The horse that beat him last time out, YALTA, is a very speedy type who enjoyed plenty of success at two and three, winning a G3 over 1,000m in the UK last season. He’s struggled to find his feet somewhat since moving to Dubai, but he finally got his head in front over course and distance last time out and can’t be written off. He was also just a length behind COMICAS in the Listed 1,200m company before Christmas and may be best of the rest.

SELECTIONS: 3. COMICAS, 10. MY CATCH, 4. JORDAN SPORT, 8. YALTA & 5. TAAMOL

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):

S1-2:   

Banker – 3. COMICAS
Selections – 10. MY CATCH, 4. JORDAN SPORT, 8. YALTA & 5. TAAMOL

S1-3:   

Banker – 4. ERTIJAAL
Selections – 6. JUNGLE CAT, 1. BACCARAT, 3. DUTCH MASTERPIECE & 2. D’BAI

S1-3     Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint

This 1,200m USD200,000 conditions contest, a trial for the G1 Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup Day, was introduced last year and it was business as usual in Dubai with Godolphin taking the first two places in the inaugural edition.

JUNGLE CAT finished two lengths in front of his Charlie Appleby-trained stablemate BACCARAT before going on to finish a close fourth in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint on uncharacteristically soft ground. The rest of last summer’s campaign in the UK was disappointing, but JUNGLE CAT once again showed his liking for the desert on his reappearance when winning a G2 over 1,400m. That showed his well-being and with William Buick back in the saddle, he should go close to landing this for a second straight year.

BACCARAT won’t go down without a fight, though. He was narrowly beaten in a handicap over course and distance in January and then won a small field handicap in fine style last month. Conditions at Meydan seem to suit him well and Appleby would be thrilled to notch another one-two in this race. However, the ‘Boys in Blue’ have the small matter of ERTIJAAL in their way this year, and he may just be too hard to defeat. The Ali Rashid Al Rayhi-trained 7YO has an extraordinary record at Meydan, winning seven of his last nine starts over either the minimum 1,000m or this 1,200m trip. His only defeats have come in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint, but granted quicker conditions than last year, Al Rayhi and jockey Jim Crowley will be hoping to right that wrong in a few weeks’ time.

ERTIJAAL is a brilliant sprinter in these conditions and he should have too much for the aforementioned Appleby duo. Godolphin certainly aren’t afraid to fire a few bullets at this contest, with Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor running three each. Appleby appears to hold the stronger hand with JUNGLE CAT, BACCARAT and D’BAI. The last-named has some decent form to his name in the UK, although this will be his first attempt at 1,200m. He made a winning Meydan debut in January in a competitive 1,400m handicap, but was then a beaten short-priced favourite behind stablemate JUNGLE CAT last month. The DUBAWI gelding was too keen that day and connections clearly feel the drop back to 1,200m will go some way to alleviating those issues. However, D’BAI is taking on some proper sprinters here and may just find things happening too quickly for him.

Bin Suroor’s best contender may well be STEADY PACE, who was only beaten a nose over course and distance last month. This is undoubtedly his ideal distance, but one win from 21 turf starts gives a pretty clear indication of his win chances.

Stablemate TOP SCORE won a 1,400m handicap last week, with THE GRAPE ESCAPE a close second. Both come into this in good form, but they have been generally running over further than 1,200m which has to be a worry.

DUTCH MASTERPIECE has been in fine form in Dubai this winter, finishing in the top three on all four starts. Although there’s an argument that he’s slightly better over 1,000m, he does just about stay 1,200m and definitely has a chance of finishing in the money.

SHILLONG, OUT DO and HIGH ON LIFE are other contenders for a top five finish, but ultimately ERTIJAAL should prove a class above in this company.

SELECTIONS: 4. ERTIJAAL, 6. JUNGLE CAT, 1. BACCARAT, 3. DUTCH MASTERPIECE & 2. D’BAI

S1-4     Burj Nahaar

There has been much publicity all over the world about trainer Salem bin Ghadayer who is currently contesting a 12-month ban after one of his horses was recently found to have prohibited substances in its system. The ban will hold until the case is concluded meaning that he can saddle hot favourite HEAVY METAL in the 1,600m G3 Burj Nahaar. HEAVY METAL has been in sensational form at Meydan winning three of his four starts over this distance in emphatic style. Most recently he routed a decent field in the G3 Firebreak Stakes by 9¾ lengths and will be impossible to beat if returning in the same form. He had earlier won the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 back in January over this distance by 4½ lengths with proven G1 performer THUNDER SNOW well beaten behind him.

While the world watches on to see how HEAVY METAL gets on, all eyes in Hong Kong will be on CLASSIC EMPEROR who lines up again here in Meydan after the disastrous start to his Dubai campaign a fortnight ago. The 6YO stumbled on leaving the barrier that day and unseated K C Leung within seconds. Leung is replaced by the young, but experienced, Oisin Murphy who many of you will know from his riding stint in Hong Kong last year. It would be harsh to blame Leung for the horse’s stumble last time and it remains to be seen whether CLASSIC EMPEROR can be effective on Meydan’s dirt surface in what is a better race.

DRAFTED was a disappointing hot favourite in the race in question a fortnight ago and never seemed to travel well at any point in the race. The step up to 1,600m was always a slight concern but he was beaten a long way before any stamina issues would have surfaced. It may well be that his barrier draw of eight was the real reason behind his disappointment and he breaks from a better one now. It would take a leap of faith to support him on the back of his latest effort, but it would be no surprise to see him run much better.

While on the subject of disappointing favourites, KIMBEAR was another one who failed to live up to his reputation when second to RAVEN’S CORNER here a fortnight ago. He didn’t seem particularly well-suited by the drop down to 1,400m and this trip will be much more in his favour. He looks a rock-solid proposition and should be hard to keep out of the frame. He also breaks from barrier one so can hold a nice prominent position early and looks the biggest threat to the favourite.

There probably isn’t a horse who has progressed faster in Dubai over the last few months than SECRET AMBITION who was winning his third race in as many months when landing a 1,400m handicap on this surface two weeks ago. He loves this surface with his only defeat in four outings coinciding with a switch to the turf. He takes a step up in class here, but deserves his place in this line-up. The only real negative is his draw in barrier 10 which makes things a little harder for him. MUSAWAAT, the horse he beat here last time, has landed a better position in barrier five but may still struggle to reverse that form.

Godolphin’s hugely talented DREAM CASTLE makes his debut on the dirt having been a little bit disappointing in three turf starts here so far this year. On the best of his UK form, particularly when finishing fifth in the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket last year, he would be the best of these. However, it’s been a long time since he showed his best form and he is another who has a difficult barrier draw to overcome.

SELECTIONS: 13. HEAVY METAL, 1. KIMBEAR, 10. SECRET AMBITION, 5. MUSAWAAT & 7. CLASSIC EMPEROR

S1-5     Jebel Hatta

Godolphin have won three of the previous five runnings of the 1,800m G1 Jebel Hatta and hold a strong chance of further enhancing that record with five entries from two trainers. Saeed bin Suroor looks to hold the best chance with BENBATL, as the 4YO bids for his third win of the year at the track having landed the G3 Singspiel Stakes and the G2 Al Rashidiya over course and distance. The former came at the expense of EMOTIONLESS, who was two lengths adrift of BENBATL when it mattered and a further length clear of the chasing pack. He took the rise in class in his stride just three weeks later when easily beating BAY OF POETS by nearly four lengths and is likely to be a short price to add this G1 prize to his 2018 collection.

Bin Suroor is also represented by the hat-trick-seeking PROMISING RUN who arrives on the back of successive G2 victories over 1,600m and 1,800m respectively. The five-year-old kicked off 2018 with a wide-margin victory over the shorter trip, beating REHANA by 4½ lengths to land the prize money for connections. Those same connections were left celebrating once again when he secured victory over 200m further next time, but it came by the smallest of margins and he may struggle to match BENBATL.

LESHLAA completes Suroor’s trio of entries and is another who comes into the race with a chance of hitting the places, despite tasting defeat in his previous appearance. Although forced to settle for second in the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes, he was only narrowly beaten by FOLKSWOOD.

The duo will once again go head-to-head here with FOLKSWOOD representing Charlie Appleby, who also runs BLAIR HOUSE as he takes aim at the USD300,000 pot. The trainer won this race back in 2016 with the talented TRYSTER, and it’s the former that looks most likely to threaten BENBATL having finished second in this contest 12 months ago. He was beaten a neck by DECORATED KNIGHT that day in a blanket finish and a repeat of that will see him go very close once again with William Buick reunited in the saddle.

The Mike de Kock-trained JANOOBI looks to hold the best chance of spoiling the Godolphin party and will be hopeful of at least making the frame following a couple of impressive performances. He was never able to land a blow on his first appearance of 2018, finishing way down the field in 12th place. However, he improved markedly next time up to finish a close second in the G2 1,400m Al Fahidi Fort. The winning distance that day was less than a length and he made amends when upped in distance to 1,600m, landing the G2 1,600m Zabeel Mile ahead of CHAMPIONSHIP. He only got his head in front in the final 200m that night, but if the increased distance can unlock some further potential he can be a force to be reckoned with.

WHISKY BARON finished fourth that day but looks to have too much competition on his hands here. GM HOPKINS, RODAINI and ABOVE N BEYOND all line up, but this looks too tough for them.

SELECTIONS: 10. BENBATL, 1. PROMISING RUN, 8. JANOOBI, 2. FOLKSWOOD & 7. LESHLAA

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):

S1-5:   

Banker – 10. BENBATL
Selections – 1. PROMISING RUN, 8. JANOOBI, 2. FOLKSWOOD & 7. LESHLAA

S1-6:   

Banker – 2. THUNDER SNOW
Selections – 6. NORTH AMERICA, 11. BOYNTON, 8. TEAM TALK & 12. SPECIAL FIGHTER

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):

S1-5: Multiple – 10. BENBATL, 1. PROMISING RUN & 8. JANOOBI
S1-6: Multiple – 2. THUNDER SNOW, 6. NORTH AMERICA & 11. BOYNTON
S1-7: Multiple – 14. BEST SOLUTION, 11. HAWKBILL & 3. CALLED TO THE BAR

S1-6     Al Maktoum Challenge R3

Godolphin have enjoyed plenty of success at Meydan in recent weeks and they look to have another strong hand in this G1 contest over 2,000m with THUNDER SNOW. The son of HELMET is coming off a good win in the 1,900m G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 where he travelled wide throughout and did well to claw back NORTH AMERICA who he faces again here. THUNDER SNOW has an impressive CV, having won the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas and the G2 UAE Derby, as well as two turf G1s in France. His regular rider Christophe Soumillon is suspended, so Oisin Murphy takes over with the young Irishman looking for his third career G1 success. He is tremendously versatile having won over a number of distances and is very much the one to beat if anywhere near his best.

NORTH AMERICA was defeated by THUNDER SNOW by just a neck last time and he could be the one to chase him home again. He has progressed hugely since moving to Satish Seemar and notched up four consecutive wins at Meydan last year. All of those wins were over 1,600m, so the extra distance here may not fully play to his strengths. He was given an easy lead last time and was still unable to hold off THUNDER SNOW, so it’s hard to see him turning the tables on his conqueror.

The ‘Boys in Blue’ look to have another contender in the shape of the Charlie Appleby-trained BOYNTON. His trainer is enjoying a fine spell in Dubai and in BOYNTON he looks to have another progressive type. He was last seen when winning impressively over 1,600m on his dirt debut despite missing the break and failing to settle. He is bred to appreciate this surface and if he can relax better, which he will need to over this extended distance, he must come into the reckoning.

Despite being a 5YO, TEAM TALK has only had five runs in his life. He returned to the track after a 432-day break and clearly needed the run first time when finishing last over 2,000m on turf at Meydan in January. There was room for optimism last time, though, when he finished strongly to finish fourth ahead of SPECIAL FIGHTER in the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes over 2,000m. Both of those runs were on turf and he encounters Meydan’s dirt for the first time here.

SPECIAL FIGHTER finished behind TEAM TALK last time and has switched stables to Musabbeh Al Mheiri since. He has run in a number of high profile races, including the last two G1 Dubai World Cups in which he finished fourth in the 2016 renewal. His last run was on the back of a 334-day break and he will be expected to strip fitter here. However, he has yet to win in over two years, and will need to step up markedly on what he has done recently to feature.

SELECTIONS: 2. THUNDER SNOW, 6. NORTH AMERICA, 11. BOYNTON, 8. TEAM TALK & 12. SPECIAL FIGHTER

S1-7     Dubai City Of Gold

Only the hugely talented POSTPONED in 2016 has put a halt to Saeed bin Suroor winning the G2 2,410m Dubai City Of Gold over the last four years. In fact, the Godolphin trainer has won this race a record 10 times, so it’s no surprise to see he trains one of the race’s main fancies in BEST SOLUTION. The 4YO obliterated the field over 2,435m on his most recent appearance at Meydan, putting five lengths between himself and the second-placed GOLDEN WOOD. MEMORIAL DAY was a further four lengths back that day, so it’s safe to say he’s the one they all have to beat with the track and trip clearly to his liking and Pat Cosgrave once again taking the ride.

Charlie Appleby has a big chance of spoiling Suroor’s party with HAWKBILL – he and BEST SOLUTION look like the ones who will be battling it out for the top prize. The former hasn’t been seen since being narrowly held at Woodbine in the G1 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes in September, which is strong form. That performance followed on from a length-defeat by DSCHINGIS SECRET in the G1 Grosser Preis Von Berlin over the same distance a month prior and again highlights his chances. However, neither defeat has come against fancied horses and the fear is he will find one too good again, especially with BEST SOLUTION lining up alongside him. The fact he has never been seen at Meydan is also a concern and it’s likely that this 5YO could once again be playing the role of understudy on the big stage.

With two highly talented protagonists at the head of the market, the rest of the pack are likely to be battling it out for third place, with Appleby second string FRONTIERSMAN the most likely candidate. He finished third behind WATERSMEET and FUNNY KID on his reappearance at Wolverhampton over 3,309m following 79 days off the track. He will have needed that run and should improve off the back of it. Two further wins for WATERSMEET since then is also a plus.

GOLD STAR looks one of the best of the rest but isn’t expected to break the top three based on his current form for Suroor. He’s unlikely to have enough in his locker to win, having finished third in a handicap on his last appearance. He did finish a short-head in front of WALTON STREET in February, when given the verdict following a five-way blanket finish over course and distance, but even a replication of that isn’t likely to be enough in this company.

CALLED TO THE BAR is an interesting entry based on some of his form, including a second placed finish behind WALDGEIST in a 1,600m company at Chantilly. WALDGEIST went on to finish second in the 2,000m G1  Prix du Jockey Club behind the talented BRAMETOT and was only beaten a neck in the G3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot. Most recently CALLED TO THE BAR was an excellent second in a 2,000m G1 at Belmont Park. There’s every chance he will need the run having been off since July, but he certainly has the ability to get involved.

That’s more than can be said for the rest of the field, with ELHAAME, AL SAHEM and EARNSHAW likely to be battling it out for minor prize money.

SELECTIONS: 14. BEST SOLUTION, 11. HAWKBILL, 3. CALLED TO THE BAR, 2. FRONTIERSMAN & 6. GOLD STAR

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