 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Dubai Gold Cup
The obvious place to start when trying to find the winner of the G2 3,200m Dubai Gold Cup is with VAZIRABAD who attempts to win the race for a third year in a row. Alain de Royer-Dupre’s 6YO is astonishingly consistent having only finished out of the first two on a couple of occasions in a 20-race career to date. He is a genuine stayer who boasts form figures of 1-2-1-1 for the four races over this 3,200m trip or further. The fact that he was beaten by RARE RHYTHM in a trial for this race earlier in the month won’t concern his supporters too much, as it is run over an inadequate 2,810m and he was beaten in the very same race last year too. Both of his victories in this contest have been by a neck and on both occasions his endless stamina has won him the day.
His biggest rival again looks to be RARE RHYTHM who steps up to 3,200m for the first time having landed that 2,810m prize. The manner in which he has won both of his last two starts suggests that he should have no problems in staying the extra 400m, and he looks the most likely to spoil VAZIRABAD’s hat-trick attempt.
Both horses drew clear of SHEIKHZAYEDROAD who finished a long way back in third on his first start of the campaign in Dubai. The 9YO had a disappointing season at home in Britain last year, but did finish third in this race 12 months ago and could easily repeat that performance at an attractive price.
BIG ORANGE could only manage fourth in this last year before going on to win the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m. He brings some of the strongest form to the table and is hard to discount, although the lack of a prep race is a concern.
The Godolphin team behind RARE RHYTHM have a useful understudy in the form of FRONTIERSMAN who ran well to get within a head of HAWKBILL over 2,410m here last time. He’d previously been beaten in a far weaker race over this type of trip back home in Britain and isn’t the most straightforward of rides. The fact that he doesn’t seem to put it all in at the business end of a race is enough of a reason to leave him out of the equation.
DAL HARRAILD makes much more appeal on what will be his debut here at Meydan. Trainer William Haggas has begun the English Flat racing season in great form and this 5YO was an impressive 10-length winner of his trial over this trip at Chelmsford earlier this month. Whether he is up to shaking up the two leading protagonists remains to be seen, but he can go well at decent odds.
The final mention must go to Irish raider TORCEDOR who came agonisingly close to landing the G2 3,190m company at Ascot back in October. He was reeled in by ORDER OF ST GEORGE in the final strides when it looked like the race was in the bag. Mrs John Harrington’s runner is another who is yet to run at Meydan, but the lack of a recent outing is less of a concern as he seems to go well fresh.
SELECTIONS: 14. RARE RHYTHM, 5. VAZIRABAD, 7. SHEIKHZAYEDROAD, 12. BIG ORANGE & 1. DAL HARRAILD
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: UAE (C1)
S1-2 UAE Derby
Charlie Appleby and William Buick have established themselves as a very effective combination recently. They team up again with likely favourite GOLD TOWN for the G2 UAE Derby over 1,900m. Godolphin’s win in the race last year was their first since 2011, but the son of STREET CRY looks a strong candidate to repeat THUNDER SNOW’s victory of 12 months ago. GOLD TOWN has created a big impression on both his starts on the dirt so far this season, particularly in the G3 1,600m UAE 2000 Guineas last time. When asked to pick up by Buick, he surged away in impression fashion and a similar performance would see him go very close here. This 1,900m trip will be the furthest he has ever encountered, but the way he won last time suggested the new trip should hold no fears.
Aidan O’Brien won this race back-to-back in 2012 and 2013 and he runs MENDELSSOHN in this year’s renewal. The son of SCAT DADDY was last seen when winning the Listed Patton Stakes in Ireland over 1,600m. Before that, he produced a career best to take the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf over the same distance. This race is always run at a furious gallop which might not suit MENDELSSOHN as he isn’t a guaranteed stayer over this distance. His breeding isn’t laden with stamina and while it is dangerous to discount an O’Brien runner, there must be doubts whether this 1,900m trip will see him at his best.
The same stamina doubts can’t be said of YULONG WARRIOR. The Satish Seemar-trained 3YO has won his last two, including the Listed Al Bastakiya over course and distance on his most recent start. He won that race by just over 11 lengths and clearly relished the step up to 1,900m. He must come into calculations based on the fact that he is guaranteed to stay over this trip and could well cause a shock.
Another one who looks well suited to 1,900m is the Doug Watson-trained RAYYA. Watson’s runner has been very consistent on all four of her starts and gets a handy weight allowance here. This is her first race against the colts and even though she is a filly who looks to be on the upgrade, she will need to improve again to get herself involved.
The unknown package in the line-up looks to be the American raider RERIDE. Steven Asmussen’s colt has won both his starts on the dirt in 2018. Those were in much lesser contest than this and he will need to step up again to feature here. The horse’s breeding does suggest he will be suited by this 1,900m trip, though, and Asmussen’s runner is definitely one to consider at decent odds.
SELECTIONS: 7. YULONG WARRIOR, 5. GOLD TOWN, 4. MENDELSSOHN, 3. RERIDE & 1. RAYYA
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: UAE (C1)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 7. YULONG WARRIOR
Selections – 5. GOLD TOWN, 4. MENDELSSOHN, 3. RERIDE & 1. RAYYA
S1-3:
Banker – 13. BLUE POINT
Selections – 10. JUNGLE CAT, 3. LIBRISA BREEZE, 2. WASHINGTON DC & 11. MAGICAL MEMORY
S1-3 Al Quoz Sprint
Since its inception in 2007, Godolphin have never won the G1 1,200m Al Quoz Sprint. They look to have a strong hand in this year’s renewal though, with the Charlie Appleby-trained pair of BLUE POINT and JUNGLE CAT.
BLUE POINT was last seen when finishing a close second to ERTIJAAL in the G2 Meydan Sprint over 1,000m. He enjoyed a productive campaign in 2017, which included two G3 wins in Britain. Those were both over 1,200m with his form suggesting that is his optimum trip. The drop in trip to 1,000m on his seasonal reappearance might have been on the sharp side for him. BLUE POINT returns to his preferred distance for this race and an improved performance is expected. The son of SHAMARDAL is very classy and should be hard to beat if he’s on his A-game here.
JUNGLE CAT won the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint over 1,200m to win the prize for a second consecutive year. Connections will be hoping for an improved performance in this race having finished a slightly disappointing fourth 12 months ago. JUNGLE CAT has had an ideal preparation and should give his stablemate plenty to think about. The only slight doubt with him is whether at the age of six, there is any more improvement in him.
British trainer Dean Ivory sends his stable star LIBRISA BREEZE over and the 6YO is looking for back-to-back G1s. He was last seen when producing a career best to take the G1 1,200m British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot last year. That day he beat a number of G1 sprinters, including CARAVAGGIO, HARRY ANGEL and WASHINGTON DC. The horse is undoubtedly talented and is more than worth his place in the line-up, but his connections must be slightly concerned about the ground. His best performances have come on soft ground and he could be outpaced on this sounder surface.
Another British raider is the Charles Hills-trained MAGICAL MEMORY who bids to give jockey Frankie Dettori his second win in the race. The son of ZEBEDEE had an up-and-down 2017 and is making his seasonal reappearance here. He has a decent record fresh and while he has the ability to get involved, he has often fallen short at this level.
The Al Quoz Sprint is one of few races that Aidan O’Brien has yet to win and he saddles WASHINGTON DC this year. He has been a consistent performer for his all-conquering connections, with his most notable victory coming in the G3 1,200m Phoenix Sprint Stakes at the Curragh last August. His performances in G1 races show that he isn’t quite at that level and he once again looks set to be fighting for minor honours.
Britain and Ireland look to have a strong hand in the race, but America could have an interesting outsider in the Peter Miller-trained CONQUEST TSUNAMI. The 6YO has only run once for Miller, an easy two length success in a G3 at Santa Anita. He is taking a big step up in class here, though, and on all known form, he has a fair bit to find with the likes of BLUE POINT and JUNGLE CAT.
SELECTIONS: 13. BLUE POINT, 10. JUNGLE CAT, 3. LIBRISA BREEZE, 2. WASHINGTON DC & 11. MAGICAL MEMORY
S1-4 Dubai Golden Shaheen
This year’s G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, run over 1,200m, has been billed as something of a showdown between American speedsters ROY H and X Y JET. The former was an emphatic winner of the G1 1,200m Breeders' Cup Sprint back in the autumn and this has been the plan ever since. He showed that was no fluke at Santa Anita last time out, landing the G2 1,200m Palos Verdes Stakes with his rider, Kent Desormeaux, motionless in the saddle. That win was very impressive and would have put him spot on for this. Having never raced outside of the United States, the only worry is whether he’s travelled well, but asides from that he looks the one to beat.
His 6YO grey rival, X Y JET, could well be the biggest danger, having finished second in this race two years ago. He didn’t have the best of it after that defeat where he was a beaten favourite twice in succession in America. He has looked much more his old-self this season though, having won all three of his starts so far. Those have all been in lesser contests than this and more is required in this company. He looks likely to find one or two too good.
MIND YOUR BISCUITS has to be on the shortlist after winning this race strikingly last year. What’s most impressive about that piece of form is that he was drawn widest of all and was in an unfavourable position as they swung around the bend. He picked up tremendous speed in the home straight to mow down his rivals under the world-class Joel Rosario and, from a better draw this time around, he looks like being a major player again. Even though he could only manage third behind ROY H in the G1 1,200m Breeders' Cup Sprint, he was given a lot to do that day and was finishing faster than anything else. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him reverse that form, although ROY H looks a worthy favourite.
Fawzi Nass trained 2012 Golden Shaheen winner KRYPTON FACTOR and his DUBAWI gelding, JORDAN SPORT, is an interesting contender running in the same dark blue and yellow silks. He has had a busy campaign in Meydan so far this year having already run five times. The 5YO set a new 1,200m track record while winning the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal on his last start and should be right there at the finish if reproducing that run.
The Doug Watson-trained MY CATCH was another to run in this race 12 months ago. He has been running consistently so far this season with the highlight being his win in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint in February. Watson’s runner followed that performance up with a disappointing 11th placed finish in the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal behind JORDAN SPORT. That run coupled with his below-par effort in last year’s renewal suggests he’s up against it again here.
SELECTIONS: 6. ROY H, 1. MIND YOUR BISCUITS, 9. JORDAN SPORT, 2. X Y JET & 8. MY CATCH
S1-5 Dubai Turf
Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor has won the 1,800m G1 Dubai Turf an incredible five times, securing victory four years straight from 1997 to 2000, and most recently in 2013 with SAJJHAA. Since then the race has been won by three Japanese horses - JUST A WAY, REAL STEEL and VIVLOS - as well as French raider SOLOW who landed the spoils for Maxime Guyon in 2015.
Bin Suroor has the chance to end that run of defeats this time round with BENBATL, who is expected to go off favourite having performed so admirably at Meydan thus far following his move from Britain. Having run his final race on British soil at Haydock in September of last year, the 4YO has since notched two wins and a second from three runs at Meydan – all over this trip. It didn’t take him long to get his bearings, winning the G3 Singspiel Stakes by just over two lengths before taking the step up in class in his stride when landing the G2 Al Rashidiya. He got the better of BAY OF POETS by almost four lengths that day and although he went down by less than a length in second most recently in the G1 Jebel Hatta, he looks a key player.
The aforementioned VIVLOS returns to Meydan as she bids to make history by becoming the first horse to win this race back-to-back following last year’s half-length victory over HESHEM. Cristian Demuro takes the ride and connections have already hinted that she has hit peak fitness following a cobweb-clearing eighth-placed run at Nakayama after 105 days off.
With Japan enjoying such success in this race, it’s no surprise to see REAL STEEL, who was guided to victory by Ryan Moore in 2016, also return for a tilt at the US$6million purse. REAL STEEL missed out last year and will have to return at the highest level with four other horses from the Land of the Rising Sun to face, as well as other talented horses from all over the world.
VIVLOS and REAL STEEL will be gunning for the places, as will fellow Japanese entry NEOREALISM, who may sound familiar having beaten PAKISTAN STAR in the G1 2,000m Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Sha Tin last April. The 7YO finished third behind TIME WARP and WERTHER in the G1 Hong Kong Cup in December. However, he hasn’t been seen since and it remains to be seen whether he will act in Dubai.
BLAIR HOUSE boasts a 50 per cent win rate at Meydan having won two of his previous four appearances at the track, with the other two ending in second-placed finishes. He did get the better of the aforementioned BENBATL last time out and it could come down to a battle of experience versus potential, with the latter likely to be the one still improving.
Ryan Moore is the joint-most successful jockey in the race, landing it in 2011 and 2016, so trainer Aidan O’Brien will be hoping he bags the hat-trick on board LANCASTER BOMBER. The well-travelled 4YO has certainly earned his air miles having raced in America, Canada and Hong Kong already in his career, picking up his fair share of prize money along the way. However, he hasn’t managed to get his head in front since August 2016 and even then, he won by the narrowest of margins. He will give it his all, but a place is the best he can hope for.
FRANKEL will be represented by the hat-trick-seeking MONARCHS GLEN, who is bidding to build on Listed and G3 victories at Goodwood and Newmarket respectively when he lines up. However, he is unlikely to trouble the main protagonists and will do well to reach the places, while the remainder of the field looks up against it and will more than likely be running for pride.
SELECTIONS: 5. BENBATL, 7. VIVLOS, 8. REAL STEEL, 2. NEOREALISM & 15. BLAIR HOUSE
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: UAE (C1)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 5. BENBATL
Selections – 7. VIVLOS, 8. REAL STEEL, 2. NEOREALISM & 15. BLAIR HOUSE
S1-6:
Banker – 6. CLOTH OF STARS
Selections – 3. REY DE ORO, 8. SATONO CROWN, 5. POET’S WORD & 7. HAWKBILL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. BENBATL, 7. VIVLOS & 8. REAL STEEL
S1-6: Multiple – 6. CLOTH OF STARS, 3. REY DE ORO & 8. SATONO CROWN
S1-7: Multiple – 9. WEST COAST, 6. FOREVER UNBRIDLED & 2. NORTH AMERICA
S1-6 Dubai Sheema Classic
As is the case with a number of the races on Dubai World Cup Day, the 2,410m G1 Dubai Sheema Classic is a truly international affair. In the past five years alone, the prize has been split between runners from Britain, Ireland, France and Japan. It has produced some brilliant champions over the years and Godolphin will be hoping for back-to-back wins following JACK HOBBS’ impressive display 12 months ago.
Their best chance is undoubtedly CLOTH OF STARS, trained by a genius in Andre Fabre. Fabre has surprisingly only been successful once at this meeting in the past, although that was in this very race 14 years ago when POLISH SUMMER came home in front. He fires four bullets on Saturday and his best chance is undoubtedly CLOTH OF STARS, who was an excellent second to the top class ENABLE in the 2,400m G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly last October. That is comfortably the best form on offer and fitness shouldn’t be a problem after a respectable second to stablemate TALISMANIC over 1,900m on the polytrack at Chantilly earlier this month. He is a worthy favourite who is going to be very hard to beat, but there are a couple of Japanese horses who will test him to the limits.
First up is REY DE ORO, the winner of last year’s G1 Japanese Derby run over 2,400m. Kazuo Fujisawa’s inmate ran a brilliant race to finish second in the G1 Japan Cup back in November as a 3YO. He came out and ran a fair race in third in the 2,200m G2 Kyoto Kinen last month, but this will have been the target and the Japanese have won this race three times in the past. Christophe Lemaire is back in the saddle and you can expect this up and coming 4YO to go very close.
Another serious contender from Japan is SATONO CROWN who will be ridden by Joao Moreira, who has already nominated him as his best chance at the meeting. Hong Kong racing fans will remember this son of MARJU beating hot favourite HIGHLAND REEL in the 2016 edition of the 2,400m G1 Hong Kong Vase with the ‘Magic Man’ in the saddle. That was a world class performance and even though he has produced some top class efforts since then, his last two starts have been very disappointing. Now a 6YO, he will need to rediscover his best form, but if he can do that he will be a danger to all on his first visit to Dubai.
Sir Michael Stoute’s POET’S WORD has to be high on the shortlist on the back of his second to CRACKSMAN in the 1,993m G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot last October. Nothing went right for him in the G1 Hong Kong Cup over 2,000m in December where he suffered a wide trip and could never get involved. Frankie Dettori gets the leg up on him for the first time and will be hoping to add to his record three wins in the race, while Stoute last tasted Dubai Sheema Classic success back in 2000 with FANTASTIC LIGHT. The fact that POET’S WORD has gone well after a break in the past can only be a bonus for his chances.
Godolphin have won this four times and in addition to the favourite they also saddle HAWKBILL and BEST SOLUTION. The former did really well to land a G2 over course and distance just a few weeks ago, showing that he has definite place claims in a race like this. BEST SOLUTION was well beaten in that contest having won a handicap back in February. He might just struggle in this top class company.
SELECTIONS: 6. CLOTH OF STARS, 3. REY DE ORO, 8. SATONO CROWN, 5. POET'S WORD & 7. HAWKBILL
Winning region (Composite Win) selection: REST OF WORLD (C4)
S1-7 Dubai World Cup
American Bob Baffert landed the G1 2,000m Dubai World Cup with ARROGATE 12 months ago and returns hoping to become just the second trainer to win successive renewals of the race. Saeed bin Suroor has landed the spoils back-to-back an incredible three times, and Baffert, who himself has trained the winner three times, has the chance to close the gap with two entries for the stable.
WEST COAST carries his best chance of victory, having won the G1 Travers Stakes, the G1 Pennsylvania Derby, and the G3 Los Alamitos Derby last year and will have Javier Castellano on board. Castellano was in the saddle when following those three victories up with a third-placed finish in the G1 2,000m Breeders’ Cup Classic behind stablemate COLLECTED and winner GUN RUNNER. GUN RUNNER was once again too good for WEST COAST in the G1 1,800m Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, this time going one place better but still finishing two-and-a-half lengths back in second. Baffert and connections will be glad to see the back of the Steve Asmussen-trained GUN RUNNER and WEST COAST should have too much in his locker for this field. The battle for places will be the port of call for many of these and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Baffert lands a historic one-two.
However, his second runner on the card, the 6YO MUBTAAHIJ, will have to improve on his well-beaten second placed finish behind ACCELERATE in a handicap earlier this month. That was the second race in succession he was well beaten by ACCELERATE, but he will be race fit for this and has finished in the top three at Meydan in seven of his 10 appearances, winning four.
NORTH AMERICA made his way into many people’s notebooks following a brilliant win at Meydan earlier this month, landing the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 by more than five lengths ahead of THUNDER SNOW. THUNDER SNOW had previously beaten NORTH AMERICA by a neck, so the turnaround in form when stepped up in trip was mightily impressive and trainer Satish Seemar will be full of confidence. The only concern is whether NORTH AMERICA can perform on the big stage having finished a well-beaten 10th in the G2 Godolphin Mile 12 months ago when favourite for the race.
The G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner TALISMANIC clearly holds the form to get involved here, having caused something of a shock when getting the better of a well-fancied HIGHLAND REEL to land that prize. Aidan O’Brien’s high-earner did get the better of TALISMANIC in the G1 2,400m Hong Kong Vase, but he was only beaten just over a length that day when finishing second. Following an 86-day break the 5YO returned with victory over CLOTH OF STARS at Chantilly. He clearly has the form to feature but there is no assurance he can do it on the dirt.
One horse who holds a solid chance of making the places is FOREVER UNBRIDLED, although it will be the biggest challenge of her career as she prepares to do battle with the boys. It will also be the first time she has gone the 2,000m distance and is yet to run outside of the United States. It’s also worth noting that no filly or mare has ever won the G1 Dubai World Cup. She certainly boasts talent having won big races across America, including in Kentucky, Texas, New York and Louisiana. This will be her swansong, but it will be asking a lot of her to beat WEST COAST.
GUNNEVERA has won five of his 15 lifetime starts, including numerous graded races, but such is the quality of this race, he looks out of his depth when it comes to challenging the main hopes. He, along with THUNDER SNOW, look the best of the rest, while it will need a minor miracle to see the likes of AWARDEE, PAVEL and FURIA CRUZADA get involved.
SELECTIONS: 9. WEST COAST, 6. FOREVER UNBRIDLED, 2. NORTH AMERICA, 7. TALISMANIC & 10. THUNDER SNOW
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