 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prince of Wales’s Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Queen Mary Stakes
Trainer Wesley Ward has won two of the previous three editions of the G2 Queen Mary Stakes run over 1,000m and has a great chance of adding to that impressive record with CHELSEA CLOISTERS. The American, who is the most successful trainer based outside Europe in the meeting’s history, has celebrated victory in this race with both ACAPULCO (2015) and LADY AURELIA (2016) in recent times. Expected to go off favourite, CHELSEA CLOISTERS arrives with just as much hype around her as those previous two winners having performed a demolition job on debut at Keeneland over 900m. Eight went to post that day, the same amount of lengths she beat nearest pursuer ELLE FACTOR by, with a further four lengths back to third placed ELFY.
SHADES OF BLUE looks to have a shade of class about her and won’t make life easy for Ward and Co. having won on debut for Clive Cox in a fillies’ maiden over 1,000m. Second placed QUEEN OF BERMUDA has come out and won twice since over the same distance at Thirsk and Windsor, with the third, COME ON LEICESTER, also claiming victory next time up. Backers and connections of SHADES OF BLUE will also be boosted by the fact that Cox won this race 12 months ago with HEARTACHE and you can be sure that this has been the plan.
Aidan O’Brien is a master of winning Group contests, yet the Irish trainer has never managed to get his hands on this race. He will be hoping that changes this year with SO PERFECT. She won a competitive looking maiden on debut at Navan over 1,000m back in April, staying on strongly to land the prize despite being pushed in the closing stages. O’Brien made the decision to up her in distance next time out when finishing fourth of seven in a Listed race over 1,200m and the return to this 1,000m trip could see her get competitive.
COME ON LEICESTER comes into the race on the back of a good win at Windsor, landing a four length success at odds-on at the expense of KADIZ, who was a further two lengths clear of the third. That win was impressive and came following a good third behind SHADES OF BLUE at Ascot on debut over the 1,000m trip. Tom Marquand takes the ride and she looks to have a big chance for Richard Hannon.
Richard Fahey has never won this race but will be disappointed if his KODYANNA doesn’t at least go close to landing some prize money following her gutsy display at Beverley over 1,000m. Getting up in the final strides, she showed improvement from her debut third at Nottingham over 1,007m, going down by less than a length, and could improve again here with Paul Hanagan riding.
Irish raider SERVALAN looks the best of the rest having followed up a debut second over 1,000m at Dundalk with a victory over 1,200m at Naas. Connections will be hoping she can come on again here.
SELECTIONS: 1. CHELSEA CLOISTERS, 17. SHADES OF BLUE, 21. SO PERFECT, 2. COME ON LEICESTER & 10. KODYANNA
S2-2 Queen's Vase
In the past decade, only four trainers have won the 2,831m G2 Queen’s Vase: Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and John Gosden. It is Johnston who has the best overall record with seven successes, but he doesn’t look to hold the strongest hand in his attempt to equal Sir Henry Cecil’s eight wins. He is represented by LYNWOOD GOLD and KING’S PROCTOR, who are both stepping up in class.
LYNWOOD GOLD has only won two of his eight career starts, but both of those came the only time he has encountered good-to-firm ground. Although he clearly has to improve significantly, he will definitely appreciate the distance and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he was to finish in the first five. Fitness isn’t going to be a problem for KING’S PROCTOR who arrives here having already raced four times in the past couple of months. He steps up significantly in trip for this race, which should suit, but his form suggests he has plenty to find.
O’Brien saddles three contenders in his attempt to land the prize for a fourth time in six renewals and stable jockey Ryan Moore has chosen KEW GARDENS. He was well beaten behind MASAR in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m, but prior to that was a fair second in the 2,321m Listed Derby Trial Stakes. KEW GARDENS is another who should appreciate the extra distance and he looks a serious contender here. Moore had been expected to partner SOUTHERN FRANCE who won a 2,600m Listed prize at Navan last month. The son of GALILEO didn’t run as a juvenile, but he has won two of his three races this season and also must be hugely respected.
Stablemate NELSON is top-rated and should go well despite disappointing slightly behind HAZAPOUR in a G3 over 2,000m at Leopardstown on his last start. Prior to that he won the G3 Ballysax Stakes over the same course and distance, so if he can return to that form he will be hard to beat. The son of FRANKEL is yet to race beyond 2,000m, but his sire’s progeny tend to improve for a step up in trip and he looks to hold solid claims.
John Gosden scooped this pot 12 months ago with STRADIVARIUS, who is a major contender for the G1 Gold Cup on Thursday. That was the trainer’s first win in the race since LANDOWNER way back in 1992, but he may not have to wait as long for the next as STREAM OF STARS could give him back-to-back victories. This SEA THE STARS gelding broke his maiden tag at this course over 2,392m last month, staying on strongly in the closing stages. Admittedly, this will be just his third career start, so he is light on experience, but he looked a complete professional last time and clearly enjoys it around Ascot. Frankie Dettori has been quite bullish about his chances in the lead up to the meeting and there is no better jockey around this track than the charismatic Italian. Gosden is a brilliant trainer of stayers and he will surely already have one eye on the G1 St Leger Stakes at Doncaster later in the season.
Another runner from the Gosden yard is Jim Crowley’s mount, ALMOGHARED, who arrives here on the back of a 2,400m Novice Stakes win at Chepstow last month. That didn’t look a bad race, although the second was well beaten at Haydock recently so the form hasn’t been franked.
SELECTIONS: 11. STREAM OF STARS, 5. KEW GARDENS, 8. NELSON, 9. SOUTHERN FRANCE & 7. LYNWOOD GOLD
S2-3 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
The Duke of Cambridge Stakes pits a number of older fillies and mares against each other in a G2 contest run over 1,600m. Aidan O’Brien has yet to taste success in the race since its inception in 2004, and he will look to change that this year with HYDRANGEA. The 4YO daughter of GALILEO has been very consistent in her career so far, winning two G1s, including the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot over 2,392m. She is undoubtedly talented and has some of the strongest form on offer, but she does have a penalty to deal with here which could bring her rivals into it. There must also be slight concerns whether she’ll be quite at her best on rattling fast ground, with plenty of her best form on a softer surface.
Her main danger could be the Marco Botti-trained ALJAZZI. Botti’s 5YO comes into this on the back of a solid performance in a G2 over 1,600m at Sandown, where she was the only filly in the line-up. She has plenty of strong form in the book and her close second in this race last year showed she is more than up to this calibre of opposition.
Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni will hope that TOMYRIS can give them their first winner of the race. The daughter of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT will look to back up her win in the G3 Chartwell Stakes over 1,400m on her seasonal reappearance. Varian’s runner showed plenty of speed in that performance and looked to appreciate the firm surface which she’s likely to get again here. She’s clearly well-regarded too, with connections having pitched her in at G1 level in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket over 1,600m last autumn. She finished down the field that day and while this isn’t as deep a race, she could be forced to settle for minor honours again.
Frankie Dettori is yet to win this race and he’ll be looking to change that with WILAMINA. Martyn Meade’s 5YO was progressive during her four-year-old campaign, but it looks as if she has taken another step forward this year. She was a good second to WUHEIDA over 1,800m at Newmarket on her first start of the season, before taking another step forward when winning the G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom over 1,703m on her last start. It looks like there is plenty more to come from the daughter of ZOFFANY and she should be involved at the finish.
Saeed bin Suroor trains both ARABIAN HOPE and PROMISING RUN and they will need to improve on what they’ve done so far. ARABIAN HOPE is perhaps the more interesting of the two, with her good record fresh implying she won’t be inconvenienced by the fact she hasn’t run since October. James Doyle won the race in 2015 aboard AMAZING MARIA and he will look to become the third jockey to win the race twice on URBAN FOX. The 4YO will only be having her second start for trainer William Haggas having moved from James Tate over the winter. The move looked to have done the trick when URBAN FOX took a valuable handicap at Ascot over 1,600m last time. She ran well in a number of big races earlier in her career, including a third in the G1 company at Newmarket over 1,600m and a second in the G3 company over 1,400m. The daughter of FOXWEDGE struggled in races like this last year, though, and she may just come up short again here.
SELECTIONS: 3. ALJAZZI, 1. HYDRANGEA, 11. WILAMINA, 7. TOMYRIS & 10. URBAN FOX
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3: Banker – 3. ALJAZZI
Selections – 1. HYDRANGEA, 11. WILAMINA, 7. TOMYRIS & 10. URBAN FOX
S2-4: Banker – 2. CRACKSMAN
Selections – 6. POET’S WORD, 5. HAWKBILL, 1. CLIFFS OF MOHER & 4. EMINENT
S2-4 Prince of Wales's Stakes
Two of the previous three renewals of the G1 Prince of Wales's Stakes run over 1,993m have been won by 4YOs – but neither of them were even close to being as talented as CRACKSMAN. John Gosden’s son of FRANKEL will go off a short priced favourite and a quick glance at his form, and what he’s up against, suggests he’s one of the bankers of the entire meeting. After all, he was beaten less than a length in last year’s running of the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m when finishing third behind Aidan O’Brien duo WINGS OF EAGLES and CLIFFS OF MOHER. He turned the tables on WINGS OF EAGLES in the Irish equivalent a month later but was still forced to settle for second best on the day, with O’Brien once again successful, this time with CAPRI. However, that form is far better than any of the other horses in this field have achieved, and he arrives in winning form having landed a 2,100m G1 at ParisLongchamp in April on his reappearance. At the beginning of the month he backed that victory up, albeit in less than convincing fashion, when taking the G1 Coronation Cup over 2,405m and it would be a surprise to see him lose this.
Sir Michael Stoute’s POET’S WORD looks set to chase CRACKSMAN home having landed the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 1,990m by just over two lengths at Sandown last month. He’d previously finished second in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m, beaten three lengths by HAWKBILL with CLOTH OF STARS back in third. The 5YO has done enough to be respected but was beaten seven lengths by CRACKSMAN last October in the G1 Champion Stakes over 1,993m at Ascot and is unlikely to reverse that form.
HAWKBILL won back-to-back races at Meydan, at G1 and G2 level over 2,410m, but fluffed his lines in the aforementioned G1 Coronation Cup over 2,405m, finishing fifth. There didn’t seem to be too many excuses for that disappointment and he is likely to put in a bold bid. However, the bronze medal place appears to be his best chance of claiming some prize money.
Aidan O’Brien’s CLIFFS OF MOHER looks the best of the rest for a trainer who won this race 12 months ago with HIGHLAND REEL. CLIFFS OF MOHER has been in the winners’ enclosure already this year having landed the G2 Mooresbridge Stakes at Naas over 2,000m.
EMINENT would have a chance on his best form, but he always seems to find at least one or two too good and can be left out of calculations for win purposes. Another FRANKEL offspring, EMINENT went off odds-on last time out when finishing down the field in the G2 Huxley Stakes over 2,064m, beaten a combined 13 lengths after 244 days off. He finished third behind DECORATED KNIGHT and POET’S WORD before that in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m and there is no reason to believe he can turn the form around.
SELECTIONS: 2. CRACKSMAN, 6. POET’S WORD, 5. HAWKBILL, 1. CLIFFS OF MOHER & 4. EMINENT
S2-5 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap)
One of the most highly-anticipated betting heats of the week is the 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup. With 30 horses hurtling down a relatively short distance, there have been tight finishes and hard luck stories aplenty over the years, and finding the winner is very tricky.
An obvious starting point is AFAAK, who was seventh over course and distance in the ultra-competitive 1,600m Britannia Stakes last season and comes into this on the back of a cosy win. He landed the 1,575m Handicap at York with a bit in hand and even though he’ll carry a penalty for that performance, he’s expected to keep on progressing.
Another horse on an upward curve is Irish raider SALTONSTALL. The Michael Halford-trained son of PIVOTAL ran very well to land a competitive prize over 1,600m at the Curragh last time out, readily pulling clear in the final 200m despite giving weight away to all bar one of his 12 rivals. Halford won this prize in 2016 with PORTAGE, who also carried the royal blue silks of Godolphin, and he looks to have another live contender here. The only question mark is if he’ll get done for speed on a faster surface, with all of his form so far coming with cut in the ground.
KEYSER SOZE looks another that’s potentially well-treated. The 4YO bounced back from a disappointing run in last year’s Britannia Stakes to finish third in the Handicap over Newbury’s straight 1,600m, which looks like one of the strongest pieces of form on offer. Last time out over 1,400m in the Victoria Cup at Ascot he fell out of the gates, giving the field a three-length head start, and it was more or less race over before it had really started. A better break this time can see him put that disappointment to bed and he’s fancied to run a big race from the bottom of the weights.
Last year’s winner ZHUI FENG will carry top-weight after his second in the Victoria Cup last time out resulted in a small hike in the handicap to a mark of 108. He’s carrying more weight than he did when victorious in this 12 months ago, but his second in the Victoria Cup over 1,400m showed he’s capable of shouldering the extra weight in competitive races, while the step back up in trip should suit.
Lurking nearer the foot of the weights is FIRMAMENT, who lines up off his lowest mark since the summer of 2016. He was second in the 2016 Challenge Cup at Ascot off a higher mark and then third to YUFTEN in the 1,600m Balmoral Handicap that year. Although he’s been a little disappointing so far this season, finishing out of the frame on all three of his starts so far, his ninth in the Victoria Cup was a fair effort and a return to 1,600m could see him run a season’s best.
David Barron looks to have a progressive horse on his hands in the shape of KYNREN. The 4YO son of CLODOVIL is a winner over 1,400m and 1,600m and is yet to finish out of the first three in six career starts. He was buried behind a wall of horses in a 1,600m handicap at Sandown last time, but worked hard to find a gap and was a fast-finishing second. There’s certainly no guarantee of a clear run in this 30-runner cavalry charge, but KYNREN looks an improving sort that could still be ahead of the handicapper.
Having hopped over the Atlantic with Wesley Ward’s battalion of US raiders, MASTER MERION is also of note. He’ll go well on the quick ground and has won four of his last six starts.
Lastly, keep an eye out for FLAMING SPEAR on his first start for Dean Ivory and Richard Hannon’s MEDAHIM, both of whom only narrowly miss out on the shortlist. FLAMING SPEAR has not been seen since switching yards over the winter and it’s interesting that he’s been handed this as his first assignment. MEDAHIM will love conditions and will relish the step back up to 1,600m.
SELECTIONS: 13. SALTONSTALL, 17. FIRMAMENT, 10. AFAAK, 29. KEYSER SOZE & 27. KYNREN
S2-6 Jersey Stakes
The G3 1,400m Jersey Stakes looks to be a case of picking apart the G1 1,600m 2000 Guineas Stakes form from earlier this season. EXPERT EYE, JAMES GARFIELD and HEADWAY all finished out of the frame in the first Classic of the season but look like the main challengers in this G3 contest.
EXPERT EYE shot onto the scene as a 2YO with a scintillating win in the 1,400m G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last summer, but failed to follow that up in the 1,400m G1 Dewhurst Stakes shortly after. His two starts at three have seen him finish a close second to JAMES GARFIELD in the G3 1,400m Greenham Stakes at Newbury and then down the field in the Guineas. He was taken off his line by TIP TWO WIN last time out, and may well have finished better than tenth with a clearer run, but he’s still a difficult one to follow with too much confidence and may have to settle for a place.
JAMES GARFIELD was a respectable seventh in the Guineas and then went on to finish fourth in the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock over 1,200m. That trip was probably inadequate and the step back up to 1,400m, the same distance at which he won the G3 Greenham Stakes this season, could help him to get back in the winners’ enclosure.
HEADWAY, a winner over 1,200m and 1,400m before stepping up in distance for the Guineas, didn’t quite get home on that last start and should run better back down in trip and company. He looked a very exciting horse when showing an electric turn of foot to win over 1,400m at Lingfield on his seasonal debut in March, so a return to that trip and the fast ground are both positives.
The biggest challenge to those that competed in the Guineas looks to be John Gosden’s EMARAATY. The son of DUBAWI cost an eye-watering £2.6m guineas as a yearling but failed to repay any of that fee when eighth of nine in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes last season. He drew clear to win by six lengths on his seasonal reappearance over 1,413m at Newcastle before coming off second best in a desperately close battle with SOCIETY POWER over 1,400m at Goodwood. Gosden’s colt was giving plenty of weight to the winner that day, who also lines up in this, and a return to level weights here could see him turn the tables.
SOCIETY POWER, who has won all of his last five races, certainly isn’t shy of the winning post, but this is a big step up in class and more is required.
PURSER is the Gosden’s other runner in the race and is an interesting outsider with Frankie Dettori in the saddle. The Italian maestro partnered JAMES GARFIELD in five of his last six starts, but will instead jump aboard PURSER who has won four of his five efforts over 1,400m. This is a step up in class, though, and he’ll need a career best to muscle in on some prize money.
SELECTIONS: 1. JAMES GARFIELD, 8. EMARAATY, 9. EXPERT EYE, 10. HEADWAY & 14. PURSER
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