 Expert - Bill Esdaile |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Eclipse Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Sprint Stakes
The opening race on the card, the 1,009m G3 Sprint Stakes, looks an open affair with many of the contenders closely matched on ratings. The market is likely to be headed by the William Haggas-trained MUTHMIR, who bids to give owner Hamdan Al Maktoum consecutive wins in the race after BATTAASH took the race twelve months ago. Haggas’ son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT wasn’t disgraced on his first two starts this season, where the ground was probably on the slow side for him. He was last seen taking the Listed Achilles Stakes at Haydock over 1,000m, where he did well to cling on in the final stages. A lot went right for him that day and there has to be a worry that he could be vulnerable here.
Julie Camacho’s JUDICIAL, who is seeking to be the first 6YO winner of the race since 2006, looks a leading contender. He enjoyed a progressive 2017 campaign, winning on three occasions and has been in good form again this year with a win and a second from his three runs. JUDICIAL finished a disappointing eighth behind MUTHMIR on his penultimate start, but there were excuses that day as he was badly hampered and was consistently denied a clear run. The form of his seasonal reappearance behind MABS CROSS looks very solid and he looks sure to go well.
He could be chased home by the rapidly improving HADDAF. 3YOs have a very strong recent record in the race, with seven of the previous 11 winners, and HADDAF looks a strong candidate to continue the trend. James Tate’s runner was well-campaigned as a 2YO and connections must have thought a lot of him to pitch him in the G2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,200m. He finished down the field that day, but he’s looked progressive since. HADDAF is two from two over course and distance this season and connections will hoping he can make it three on the bounce.
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t often have runners in this race, but he is set to be represented by DIFFERENT LEAGUE this year. She has some of the strongest form on offer, including her win in the G3 company over 1,200m, where she beat this year’s G1 Coronation Stakes winner ALPHA CENTAURI. However, she has struggled to replicate that form since moving to O’Brien from Matthieu Palussiere’s yard and is likely to find a few of these too good.
Richard Fahey will be hoping MR LUPTON can give him a first win in the race. The 5YO took a competitive handicap at York over 1,000m on penultimate start and was quietly fancied for the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot as a result. He finished a slightly disappointing eighth that day over 1,200m, but that was a stronger race than this and his win at York entitles him to plenty of respect.
Clive Cox has been doing well with his sprinters in recent seasons and he saddles KODITIME. The son of KODIAC was backed as if defeat was out of the question on his seasonal reappearance at York over 1,000m and he obliged winning well by just under a length. He was only just touched off at Windsor over 1,019m subsequently, before running below par behind HADDAF over 1,009m on his most recent start. The 3YO will need to bounce back to the form of that York win to be competitive here.
SELECTIONS: 2. JUDICIAL, 6. HADDAF, 5. MUTHMIR, 4. MR LUPTON & 7. KODITIME
S1-2 3yo+ Handicap
With 16 going to post for the 1,600m trip, races don’t come much more wide open than this Class 2 3yo+ handicap. Roger Varian’s DAIRA PRINCE is bidding for a hat-trick following wins at Nottingham and Ripon and he is likely to be sent off as one of the favourites. He kicked off the season with victory in a Class 2 Handicap at Nottingham over 1,668m, getting the better of David O’Meara’s well-backed LAMLOOM, who has since gone on to win at Pontefract. DAIRA PRINCE followed that up with a half-length victory at the expense of MIKMAK at Ripon last month in a Class 3 Handicap over 1,800m. He is worthy of his place in this field and with the yard in good form and jockey Andrea Atzeni firing in the winners, he should put up a bold bid despite the drop in distance.
The aforementioned O’Meara is bidding to land the prize with ESCOBAR, who was quietly fancied in the Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m at Royal Ascot last month. He ended up finishing 11th of 30 that day despite being too free when running on the stands’ side under Martin Harley. Prior to that he was a Class 3 winner over 1,593m despite being weak in the betting market, finishing two lengths clear of runner-up CALVADOS SPIRIT and a further two clear of favourite ZABEEL STAR back in third. That run followed a very close third in a Class 3 Handicap at Doncaster, going down by a head and a neck to SPANISH CITY and MAZZINI, with the former going on to finish a close fourth in a Class 2 over 1,400m at York. He has a bit to find to take this up in class but will have no problem with the fast conditions and it would be a surprise were he to not at least finish in the places.
Charlie Fellowes’ CHIEFOFCHIEFS boasts course and distance form having landed a Class 3 over 1,600m back in May and wasn’t beaten far here in June when fourth over the same distance in a Class 2. VIA SERENDIPITY won that race and lines up again here for Stuart Williams having also finished second in a Class 2 at Chelmsford over the same distance in June.
Another who put in a stellar performance in that Class 2 Handicap at Sandown in June was MANSON, who finished second. That came after two poor performances at the back end of 2017. He will need to come on again and prove that was no fluke to feature, but has blinkers back on again.
ORIGINAL CHOICE boasts some good form but would be much more popular had it been on a softer surface. He won on good-to-soft in a 1,600m Class 2 at Wetherby when last seen in May. He also made the places at the same level when second on heavy at Haydock in September of last year but has struggled on his last two appearances on good to firm, which is a big concern.
John Gosden can never be ruled out on the big occasion and he will be hoping for a big effort from POUVOIR MAGIQUE who will need to bounce back from a disappointing performance at Newcastle. He went off heavily odds-on that day despite pulling all the way to the post and ended up finishing a disappointing nine of 13. However, he was a winner over 1,600m at Class 2 level prior to that and shouldn’t be written off just yet.
Finally, Andrew Balding has his string in good from at present and saddles both the topweight SOUTH SEAS and last-time winner ISOMER. SOUTH SEAS was a very talented 2YO a couple of years ago with the pick of his performances being at this track when winning the G3 Solario Stakes of 1,400m. He lost his way last season with a couple of wayward displays, but has shown signs of life in two starts this campaign having been gelded. It would be a huge effort to win this off topweight, but he can certainly outrun his odds. As for ISOMER, he is another with plenty of talent on the comeback trail and could factor.
SELECTIONS: 5. DAIRA PRINCE, 1. SOUTH SEAS, 8. VIA SERENDIPITY, 2. ESCOBAR & 11. MANSON
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 5. DAIRA PRINCE
Selections – 1. SOUTH SEAS, 8. VIA SERENDIPITY, 2. ESCOBAR & 11. MANSON
S1-3:
Banker – 8. NARELLA
Selections – 9. PREENING, 6. DI FEDE, 1. AWESOMETANK & 5. DESERT DIAMOND
S1-3 Distaff Stakes
First run in 2003, the 1,600m Listed Distaff Stakes has a classy role of honour with G1 winners such as BLOND ME and INTEGRAL winning the race in recent years. James Fanshawe’s PREENING is seeking a course and distance double having won a fillies’ handicap impressively last time. Her trainer tends to do well with similar types and the daughter of DUTCH ART looks a horse on the upgrade. This is the strongest field she will have come up against, but PREENING’s performance last time suggests she’s more than capable of the step up in class.
Roger Varian won this race in 2011 with NAHRAIN and he saddles NARELLA this time around. This will be the 3YO’s first start for Varian having been trained in Germany by Markus Klug previously. She was last seen finishing last of seven in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly over 1,600m. The ground was soft that day and wouldn’t have played to her strengths, so she should be much more at home on the quicker surface here. To pitch the daughter of RELIABLE MAN in such deep company on just her third career start suggests she is well regarded and must be taken seriously significantly dropped in class here.
Aidan O’Brien saddles DARKNESS FALLS and BROADWAY as he seeks to win the race for the first time. DARKNESS FALLS failed to win in maiden company but won a weakfish looking 1,400m handicap at Naas last month. That will have done her confidence a world of good, but the form is a long way below what is required to win a race like this. BROADWAY was well beaten in the 1,600m handicap at Royal Ascot last month and is another who has to improve beyond recognition.
DESERT DIAMOND bids to give Sir Michael Stoute a record fourth win in the race. This very well bred filly comes into this on the back of an encouraging fourth in the 1,600m handicap at Royal Ascot. Prior to that, she was impressive when comfortably winning a handicap at York over 2,051m. Her breeding suggests she’ll be better over that kind of trip and this shorter distance could leave her vulnerable to a few speedier types.
William Haggas’ AWESOMETANK is another who must come into the reckoning based on her impressive win at Chelmsford on the polytrack over 1,600m last time. This will be her second try in Listed company having finished fourth at Newmarket over 1,600m on the last start of her 2YO campaign. She will need to step up from her win at Chelmsford to be competitive here, but the way she won suggests there could be plenty more to come.
Ralph Beckett has a strong record with fillies and he relies on DI FEDE. The daughter of SHAMARDAL boasts some strong form this season including a win over 1,400m at Leicester on her penultimate start. She was a close third behind URBAN FOX at Ascot over 1,600m on her seasonal reappearance and that looks very strong form thanks to URBAN FOX’s subsequent victory in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes last weekend. A repeat of that run would see DI FEDE go very close here and she must be one for the shortlist.
It would be no surprise to see Richard Hannon’s TAJAANUS go well at a big price. She ran really well under a big weight in the 1,600m handicap at Royal Ascot last time. Hannon’s runner looks stretched by this trip though and she looks more at home over 1,400m.
SELECTIONS: 8. NARELLA, 9. PREENING, 6. DI FEDE, 1. AWESOMETANK & 5. DESERT DIAMOND
S1-4 Eclipse Stakes
The G1 1,990m Eclipse Stakes is one of the highlights of the flat racing season in the GB as it’s the first time the 3YO Classic generation meet their elders. Over the last 20 years, the younger generation have been successful on eight occasions, winning twice in the last three years.
They look to hold an extremely strong hand again this year with recent G1 2,405m Derby Stakes winner MASAR likely to head the betting. Having won the G3 1,600m Craven Stakes at Newmarket in April by an emphatic nine lengths, he followed his close third in the G1 1,600m 2000 Guineas at that same venue with victory at Epsom last month. He had ROARING LION behind him on all three occasions, but there is every chance John Gosden’s colt can reverse that form over his perfect trip. The 1,600m at Newmarket seemed to be his undoing on both occasions earlier this season as the emphasis was on speed rather than stamina.
ROARING LION’s third behind MASAR at Epsom on his latest start was a terrific run considering the 2,405m trip seemed to stretch him and the return to 1,990m should be ideal. The best performance of his career to date came sandwiched in the middle of those three runs when he ran out an impressive winner of the 2,051m G2 Dante Stakes at York. It was fast ground that day too, so conditions should be ideal again for him to finally gain revenge on MASAR.
Even though Aidan O’Brien is looking for his sixth win in the contest, this hasn’t been a particularly lucky race for him in recent years with his last victory being back in 2011 with SO YOU THINK. He looks set to saddle three runners headed by his G1 1,600m 2000 Guineas winner SAXON WARRIOR. The son of DEEP IMPACT looked to have the world at his feet after that Newmarket win where he had both MASAR and ROARING LION in behind him. However, since then he has been beaten in both the G1 Derby Stakes where he finished behind those two and most recently last week at the Curragh where he was again beaten in the G1 2,400m Irish Derby. He finished third last weekend and even though he was only beat half a length, it was still a little disappointing. The drop back to 1,990m may well help, but he looked to have had a hard race a week ago and he has to step up.
Another fairly disappointing O’Brien inmate this season has been filly HAPPILY who had MASAR in behind her in third at Chantilly last year when she won the G1 1,600m Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. That form looks even better now when you consider runner-up OLMEDO won the G1 1,600m Poule d’Essai des Poulains this season. However, things haven’t gone well for HAPPILY this campaign having only finished third in both the G1 1,600m English and Irish 1000 Guineas. She was stepped up in distance to 2,100m last time in the G1 Prix de Diane and flew home to be beaten less than a length in fourth behind LAURENS. HAPPILY deserves a change of luck and it would be no surprise to see her competitive here.
CLIFFS OF MOHER completes the O’Brien trio and has had a busy time of late racing twice at Royal Ascot. It would be a surprise if he was good enough to trouble the others here.
Former winner HAWKBILL finished third behind POET’S WORD in the G1 1,993m Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. That was a solid run, but once again a lot more is required.
The pick of the older horses could well be Richard Fahey’s FOREST RANGER who has won on both starts this campaign. Victory in the G3 1,800m Earl Of Sefton Stakes in April was followed by another success, this time at Chester over 2,064m in the G2 Huxley Stakes. On both occasions he was chased home by well fancied O’Brien runners in DEAUVILLE and WAR DECREE. That entitles him to a tilt at a prize like this, but he is likely to come up short.
SELECTIONS: 6. ROARING LION, 8. HAPPILY, 4. MASAR, 2. FOREST RANGER & 7. SAXON WARRIOR
S1-5 3yo 71-90 Handicap
The 1,400m 71-90 Handicap for 3YOs is full of improving horses and LETHAL LUNCH looks the obvious starting point after picking up his first win of the season at Haydock last month. That win came over 1,434m and in similar conditions, so he certainly ticks a few boxes, though he has been raised by the handicapper for that success and needs to find more again.
MANTHOOR was another last time out winner, taking a Class 6 maiden over 1,400m at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance at the start of June, and he’s also been put up in the weights. We’re yet to find out quite how strong the form of that maiden really is but he won it with plenty in hand and he’s certain to improve. This race is a fair step up in class but the win at Lingfield was his first run after a breathing operation and he could continue to go from strength to strength as the season goes on.
COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN, who represents the in-form David Elsworth, is an interesting filly and is sure to have her supporters. The daughter of BARSHIBA won a competitive race over course and distance two starts ago before finishing third behind some smart fillies at Newmarket last time out. Before that she won over course and distance carrying top-weight and she could be one to compete in Listed or Group company as the season goes on. She’s a sister to G1 winner ARABIAN QUEEN and looks a fast-improving filly with a big chance.
ROGUE has been running consistently well over 1,400m and could be in the shakeup. He’s run three times this season without getting his head in front but went down by just a neck to FAKHOOR last time out. He’s gone up in the weights for that effort which makes things a little trickier but should run well again on his preferred good ground.
Elsewhere, LOS CAMACHOS holds a live outside chance at the weights. He’s better off with POINT HOPE, who he finished just a length-and-a-half behind at Newmarket last time, and this could be the time for him to strike. Fast ground and 1,400m looks absolutely ideal for him, while his trainer, David Evans, is in good form at the moment too.
SELECTIONS: 5. COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN, 4. LOS CAMACHOS, 3. MANTHOOR & 6. LETHAL LUNCH
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN, 4. LOS CAMACHOS, 3. MANTHOOR & 6. LETHAL LUNCH
S1-6: Multiple – 5. NEARLY CAUGHT, 6. PLATITUDE, 4. MONTALY & 3. JUKEBOX JIVE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN, 4. LOS CAMACHOS & 3. MANTHOOR
S1-6: Multiple – 5. NEARLY CAUGHT, 6. PLATITUDE & 4. MONTALY
S1-7: Multiple – 6. JACK REGAN, 1. DE MEDICI & 5. GODODDIN
S1-6 Esher Stakes
Last year’s victor NEARLY CAUGHT is back to defend his crown in the 3,245m Listed Esher Stakes and he’ll have to fend off just five rivals to do so successfully. The 8YO son of NEW APPROACH was third in this race back in 2016 before fending off the challenge of MONTALY 12 months later and he’s had a similar preparation in a bid for back-to-back wins this year. He finished second in the same G2 in Germany that he was also a runner-up of on his way to winning at Sandown last year, while connections opted to run him in the 4,330m Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last month rather than the 3,991m G1 Gold Cup that he used to repair the year before. Like in the 2017 Gold Cup, he could only manage ninth in the Queen Alexandra Stakes – a slight concern given the drop in grade - and the feeling is that he may now be regressing slightly. The concern is whether the fire still burns as brightly as it once did but he’ll certainly be right there if he returns to his best. There is also every chance that the marathon 4,330m distance of that race stretches his stamina reserves and he is better off at this 3,245m trip.
The second from 12 months ago, MONTALY, went on to land the 3,251m G2 Lonsdale Cup at York last season and is a very useful stayer. He’s yet to shine so far this season, finishing fourth in the 3,190m G3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot on unsuitably soft ground before finishing down the field in a good renewal of the G3 Henry II Stakes over the same distance, but he certainly goes well at Sandown and will appreciate the drop in class.
FUN MAC also comes into this off the back of a run in the aforementioned Queen Alexandra Stakes where he finished eighth. He turned for home with every chance but couldn’t go with them in the final few hundred metres. His stamina is guaranteed but he lacks speed and would also prefer softer conditions.
While the likes of MONTALY, NEARLY CAUGHT and FUN MAC have all been mixing it in hotter races this season, PLATITUDE is a progressive sort who’s had a more conservative start to the season. Having had a wind operation over the winter, he’s won his only start of the campaign, a competitive handicap at Goodwood over 2,800m, and looks to have an exciting summer ahead of him. This is certainly a tougher race but he’s a horse on the up and ground conditions are also in his favour.
JUKEBOX JIVE and HIGH JINX complete the small but select field. The former tried to go from pillar to post in the 3,727m Chester Cup, largely due to the fact he was drawn wide, but understandably ran out of petrol and could only manage eighth. Before that, he hit traffic problems in the closing stages on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury over 3,600m where he would have finished closer that fourth with a clearer run. He has to be given another chance on the basis of those two runs. HIGH JINX is a G1 winning stayer on the Flat but has been enjoying his time over hurdles of late, winning two novice events on the bounce. Now a 10YO, he’s been finding the Flat a bit sharp and may come up short on his reappearance to the sphere.
SELECTIONS: 5. NEARLY CAUGHT, 6. PLATITUDE, 4. MONTALY & 3. JUKEBOX JIVE
S1-7 3yo 66-85 Handicap
Eclipse Stakes Day at Sandown closes with the 1,990m 66-85 Handicap for 3YOs with a surprisingly small field of just seven runners. Archie Watson is a young trainer going places, as demonstrated by his first win at Royal Ascot a few weeks ago. He relies on topweight DE MEDICI in this and the gelding might be able to take advantage of his fitness and experience having already had six runs since February. A winner of a 1,600m novice event on debut, he hasn’t been able to get his head in front since, but he ran well two starts back at Leicester over 2,000m with rival GODODDIN a length further back in third. That was a decent effort behind BERINGER who has franked the form since with a win over this course and distance and then a close second at York. It didn’t work out for DE MEDICI last time when dropped back to 1,593m at Haydock, but the step back up in trip should suit with the application of first-time blinkers also likely to bring about some improvement.
GODODDIN certainly has claims for Hugo Palmer on the back of that Leicester effort and he is likely to prove better than his handicap mark of 76. His win over 2,045m at Nottingham came on similar fast ground that he will encounter here and he looks another leading player here.
BAJAN GOLD comes into this on a hat-trick after back-to-back 2,000m victories at Windsor and Lingfield last month. This will require more having risen again in the weights, but he is in form and that often counts for plenty. He is another likely to relish the fast conditions.
NEVERBEEN TO PARIS began the campaign with an impressive win over 1,988m at Beverley back in May, but has somewhat lost his way in three starts since. The combination of a rise in the weights and a step up in trip seem to have been against him and the drop back in distance is likely to help. However, he requires a bit of a leap of faith as his form has dipped dramatically.
SOLDIERS BAY has yet to win in five career starts to date although he didn’t run badly on his seasonal reappearance over 1,810m at Goodwood. That form would put him right in the mix here, but his latest start in a weaker race over 1,729m at Wolverhampton leaves him with plenty to find.
Ian Williams has his string in decent form and continues to send out winners. He saddles JACK REGAN here who won over 1,983m at Salisbury back in May. Since then he ran a very good third to CORGI over this course and distance last month. That winner went on to run a cracker at Royal Ascot and a repeat of that run certainly makes him the one to beat here. His run at Newmarket a few weeks ago, where he finished last of the six runners, can be ignored as he was denied a clear run at a crucial stage. He is better than he showed that day and can make amends for that luckless run.
SELECTIONS: 6. JACK REGAN, 1. DE MEDICI, 5. GODODDIN & 2. BAJAN GOLD
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