 Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Shuka Sho Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up allowance
The 2,200m on outer turf course at Kyoto starts from mid-home stretch. With 397m to the first turn, there should be less effect of draw bias. However, in the second week of the race meetings at Kyoto on Sunday, the time is expected to be quicker over the course. Horses are required on more speed and staying power.
My first selection is MELVIN KAZUMA. He has had solid efforts with 1-2-3 in the three recent starts since he has returned from seven-month layoff. He used to hold up but has changed his tactics and racing close to the speed. He failed to prove his favouritism in his last outing when he was beaten only 0.3 seconds in third. With four seconds from six starts at Kyoto, the course should suit him. If he runs his race in the small field, he has a big chance.
My second selection is PALINGENESIS. The staying power type of horse with closing speed had a fierce battle side by side and finished in a dead heat at Tokyo in May. He finished second latest but the 3YO winner had 9lbs advantage in the race. With proven versatility, the only concern is his suitability at Kyoto with sixth and fifth in two starts over the track.
My third selection is MEISHO KAMISHIMA. His losing streak over a year has ended in the middle-class allowance race at Hanshin latest. He usually races handy with matured physically and mentally. He is a very fit horse and ready for the run.
My fourth pick is PRECIOUS LEAF. With four recent starts all over dirt, he will back to turf since ninth in the maiden race over 2,000m at Nakayama last December. His hindquarters have been developed a lot and he has become more powerful than used to. The way he won in the last start even on dirt will indicate his shine on his return to turf. His staying power and powerful run given from his sire ORFEVRE will not be surprised at all.
My fifth selection is SOLACE. Since she is not qualified to run the G1 Shuka Sho, she will run this race. In her first outing at the graded stakes level last time, she had no room to move out in the slow pace and finished disappointing. However, with the smaller field this time, there is no concern to find the space to show her acceleration. With over 1,100lbs of weight, she has plenty of scope and must compete in higher class.
SELECTIONS: 7. MELVIN KAZUMA, 8. PALINGENESIS, 6. MEISHO KAMISHIMA, 4. PRECIOUS LEAF & 1. SOLACE
S1-2 3yo and up allowance
At 1,800m dirt in Kyoto, inside stalls have more advantage. Usually horses in front hung on, but hold-up runner also get a chance when they move up nicely during the trip.
My first selection is INTI. Three wins from four outings, with fastest fractional time over the last 600m in all three. He can run prominently or sits handy. Although he has no experience to run at Kyoto, the flat course in the home stretch should suit his tactics with no track concern.
My second selection is LITERAL FORCE. With the smart efforts with 2-3-2-1 in the four recent starts since he has retransferred from National Association of Racing (NAR) in April this term, he won wire to wire latest when jockey Christophe Lemaire did not urge him at all. He can also race close to the speed, so he may stalk INTI from second or third.
My third selection is LANDLER. He has not tasted any victory since last July, however he showed dramatic change in his first time run over dirt when good third effort in the allowance race at Hanshin latest. He has some concerns with his legs sometimes, so the short period from last start on 2nd October indicates that he is in good condition.
My fourth selection is SUPERIOR CITY, with three wins from 17 career starts including two wins at the distance. He has won the middle-class allowance race at Chukyo in March but yet to win since. With fourth and sixth efforts in two starts at Kyoto, he showed suitability to the track. He must be the one of the long-shots.
My fifth selection is T M CHUHAI. After two seconds at the same stage and a victory at the distance in the early of this term, he did not handle the rain-affected track and placed ninth in September and came off a seventh latest on 2nd October. With already seven starts this term, he won’t show a big improvement from last start, but he is one of my picks.
SELECTIONS: 4. INTI, 9. LITERAL FORCE, 5. LANDLER, 11. SUPERIOR CITY & 3. T M CHUHAI
S1-3 Shigiku Sho
JUST A WAY, the world highest-rated horse in 2014, started his stud duty at Shadai Stallion Station in 2015 and his first crop has become 2YO this year. While JUST A WAY was not so brilliant himself when he was 2YO and was rather late-developed horse, his first crop is doing very well, sending 10 winners at Japan Racing Association by last weekend and heading the freshman sires’ table.
One of such winners by JUST A WAY is ADMIRE JUSTA, who has displayed impressive performance and is regarded as one of Derby prospects. ADMIRE JUSTA is the tenth foal out of ADMIRE TERESA, and her second foal is ADMIRE RAKTI by HEART’S CRY, who won the G1 Caulfield Cup over 2,400m at Melbourne in 2014. As JUST A WAY is son of HEART’S CRY, ADMIRE JUSTA is three-parts-brother to the Graded One Stakes winner.
The colt trained by Naosuke Sugai, who trained JUST A WAY as well, made his racecourse debut at Hanshin on 24th June, and finished second in the maiden for unraced 2YOs over 1,800m. He was very green, failed to break quickly, and was forced to make up so much ground on homestretch. He reappeared on racecourse on 22nd July, and collected his first victory, winning the maiden over 1,600m at Chukyo. In fact, he broke slowly again, was still seventh in 12 runners’ field at the top of homestretch, and then accelerated very well, covering the final three furlongs for 34.3 seconds. The turn of foot he used was really impressive and I am sure he has bright future. I select ADMIRE JUSTA as my first choice here without any hesitation.
The horse to beat for ADMIRE JUSTA is ROGER BAROWS by DEEP IMPACT. The third foal out of LITTLE BOOK, bred by Katsumi Yoshida’s Northern Farm, was offered at foal session of Japan Racing Horse Association Select Sale in 2016 and bought by Hirotsugu Inokuma for 78,000,000yen, in term of 5.4 million Hong Kong dollars. The expensive colt, trained by Kazuya Nakatake, made successful racecourse debut at Niigata on 18th August, when he won the maiden for unraced 2YOs over 2,000m by one and a quarter of lengths. It means he has the experience to run the distance of Shigiku Sho, and ROGER BAROWS is my second choice.
YAMANIN MAGIA by DEEP IMPACT, who won the maiden over 1,800m at Kokura on 4th August, ridden by Yutaka Take, is my third choice. Although he is a smallish horse, as like his father, he has strong mind to fight.
JOSHO MOOD by ROSE KINGDOM, who won the maiden at Kokura on 25th August, is my fourth choice. It looks he learnt many things from his first start and performed much better in the second start.
And DADDY'S MIND by TOSEN HOMAREBOSHI, is my fifth choice. While he was disappointing ninth in the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes, the performance when he won the maiden on 30th June at Fukushima was not bad.
SELECTIONS: 3. ADMIRE JUSTA, 4. ROGER BAROWS, 7. YAMANIN MAGIA, 6. JOSHO MOOD & 1. DADDY'S MIND
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 3. ADMIRE JUSTA
Selections – 4. ROGER BAROWS, 7. YAMANIN MAGIA, 6. JOSHO MOOD & 1. DADDY'S MIND
S1-4: Banker – 4. ROCHEFORT
Selections – 8. WIN CHATELAINE, 7. OH MY GUY, 5. SAN RAMON VALLEY & 6. EMERAL STAR
S1-4 Sannenzaka Tokubetsu
The most attractive runner in Sannenzaka Tokubetsu, allowance race for horses belonging to middle class, for me is ROCHEFORT, 3YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA. ROCHEFORT is the sixth foal out of AMBROISE, winner of four races including the G3 Hakodate Nisai Stakes and finished second in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. Her total earning was 140 million yen, which is nearly 10 million Hong Kong dollars. ROCHEFORT experienced a series of training setback and did not run until April this year. He ran his first race at Nakayama on 14th April, and finished sixth in the maiden over 2,000m. It looked he did not understand what he should do at the racecourse. But he learned a lot from the first start and he was different horse when he ran the maiden at Tokyo on 27th May, when he collected his first victory by one and half lengths. After having two months off, ROCHEFORT appeared at Niigata on 4th August, and performed impressively, winning the allowance race for two and half lengths.
He is now stepping up to the middle class, and Sannennzzaka Tokubetsu is the first opportunity for ROCHEFORT to compete against the horses belonging to this class. However, I believe there is a plenty of room to improve and will become Grade Stakes performer in near future. Hence, this race is nothing but a simple check point for him and I pick up ROCHEFORT as my first choice.
WIN CHATELAINE who finished fifth in the allowance race last time out, classified as the same class as this race, is my second choice. And OH MY GUY, who also finished fifth in the allowance race last start, is my third choice. I believe both of them have good chance to get better placing in the Sannenzaka Tokubetsu, as the competition here seems to be easier than their previous start.
SAN RAMON VALLEY, 3YO colt by LORD KANALOA, is another runner with beautiful pedigree in this race. As he is seventh foal out of MONROE BLOND, winner of four races including three stakes races and finished second in the G3 contest. He was unbeaten through two starts, including the allowance race at last December. He was forced to sideline for nine months due to injury, and finished eighth in the allowance race on 23rd September at Hanshin. It is obvious he needs the race and should perform much better on Sunday. He is my fourth choice.
And EMERAL STAR, who finished fourth in the allowance race, classified as the same class as this race, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 4. ROCHEFORT, 8. WIN CHATELAINE, 7. OH MY GUY, 5. SAN RAMON VALLEY & 6. EMERAL STAR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 4. ROCHEFORT, 8. WIN CHATELAINE & 7. OH MY GUY
S1-5: Multiple – 11. ALMOND EYE, 5. SALACIA & 2. CANTABILE
S1-6: Multiple – 13. TAGANO VITTER, 4. ASTER SWING & 12. COPANO KICKING
S1-5 Shuka Sho
The likely hot favourite in the G1 Shuka Sho, final leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies, is ALMOND EYE, who has won the G1 Oka Sho over 1,600m at Hanshin in April and the G1 Yushun Himba over 2,400m at Tokyo in May, first and second leg of Triple Tiara.
The filly by LORD KANALOA was shipped to Northern Farm, breeder of ALMOND EYE, at Fukushima after Yushun Himba, and had three and half months summer break there. According to the statement issued by Meteorological Agency, average temperature from June through August at main land of Japan was 1.7℃ higher than standard year and was actually the hottest summer in the history. Thoroughbred is normally not good with such heat wave, however, ALMOND EYE spent the days at Fukushima in fine condition and returned at Sakae Kunieda’s barn on 12th September, as a fresh horse.
Although the G1 Shuka Sho is the first start for ALMOND EYE since May, Kunieda, who trained APAPANE, winner of Triple Tiara in 2010, describes ALMOND EYE as “a horse who does not need a prep race” and is confident about her condition. And Christophe Lemaire, regular rider of ALMOND EYE, judges that the best trip for the dual classic winner is 2,000m, which is the distance of the Shuka Sho.
I evaluate ALMOND EYE is better horse than APAPANE and she has same class as GENTILDONNA, who completed Triple Tiara and won the G1 Japan Cup in 2012. I am pretty sure that she will become fifth filly to achieve Triple Tiara on Sunday, and she is my first choice.
SALACIA by DEEP IMPACT out of SALOMINA, winner of the G1 Preis der Diana in 2012, did not run when she was 2YO and finished second in the Listed Shirayuri Stakes for 3YO at Kyoto on 27th May. She has developed slowly and I had impression that she is now capable to compete with top class fillies, when she finished second in the G2 Rose Stakes, one of prep races for the Shuka Sho on 16th September at Hanshin. It is a pity that Joao Moreira, who was booked for SALACIA, cannot ride her on Sunday due to suspension. However, she is still my second choice.
CANTABILE, who won the G2 Rose Stakes beating SALACIA, is my third choice. The filly by DEEP IMPACT out of GALILEO mare CHANROSSA, did not stay 2,400m and was beaten thirteenth in the G1 Yushun Himba. She is the winner of three races, all of which are the races over 1,800m, and I believe she has enough stamina to stay 2,000m.
MIKKI CHARM by DEEP IMPACT, who has been improving dramatically and won the allowance race on 5th August at Sapporo by three and half lengths is my fourth choice.
RANDONNEE by BLAME, who won the Listed Sweetpea Stakes and finished third in the G3 Shion Stakes, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 11. ALMOND EYE, 5. SALACIA, 2. CANTABILE, 13. MIKKI CHARM & 4. RANDONNEE
S1-6 Fujinomori Stakes
Fujinomori Stakes is the race for horses belonging to the class just below Listed class, over 1,200m at Kyoto, the last race of Shuka Sho Day.
TAGANO VITTER is the specialist of this distance and this surface. He made his racecourse debut on 5th December 2015, and has run 20 races since then. And 19 starts are the races over 1,200m and all on dirt. The 5YO horse by KINSHASA NO KISEKI has won four races to date and has been competitive at the class just below Listed class throughout this season. He started six times at this class since January and finished within first-three for four times. The consistent runner trained by Mitsunori Makiura finished second in the allowance race last time out, on 9th September at Nakayama, which was the race after having two and half month summer break. He should be fitter on coming Sunday than he was when he ran five weeks ago, and it looks he has very good chance to capture the Fujinomori Stakes. He is my first choice.
The aforementioned allowance race on 9th September at Nakayama gives us more clues to predict this race, as ASTER SWING, ARRET, and KANETOSHI VIVACE, who are the third to fifth finisher there are the entrants for the Fujinomori Stakes.
ASTER SWING, 4YO colt by HAYNESFIELD, won the allowance race, classified as middle class at Niigata on 29th July. The allowance race on 9th September for the horses belonging to just below Listed class should be tougher task for ASTER SWING. However, he competed well there and finished one and half lengths behind TAGANO VITTER. As he reproduces this form on Sunday, I believe ASTER SWING should run well in the Fujinomori Stakes. He is my second choice.
Another interesting American-bred entrant is COPANO KICKING. The winner of three races from five starts finished fourth in last start, same class of this race, on 22nd September at Hanshin. I think it was good effort because it was first time for the colt by SPRING AT LAST to compete against the horses belonging to this class. He is my third choice.
The previous start of KANETOSHI VIVACE, was the allowance race with COPANO KICKING in the field on 22nd September, and the 7YO mare by KING KAMEHAMEHA was second there. In fact, she finished a length ahead of COPANO KICKING there and this form should not be disregarded. She is my fourth choice.
The allowance race last start was the first opportunity for ARRET to compete in this class and the 7YO gelding ran well there, finishing one and a quarter of lengths ahead of KANETOSHI VIVACE. He is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 13. TAGANO VITTER, 4. ASTER SWING, 12. COPANO KICKING, 3. KANETOSHI VIVACE & 10. ARRET
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