 Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Expert Column for Cox Plate Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Red Anchor Stakes
SUNSET WATCH is a progressive type and should run well in an open race. Drawn to get a cosy run, I expect him to be in the finish and make it back-to-back wins.
From the leading stable of Darren Weir, RINGERDINGDING could be a big improver following a recent unplaced finish at Caulfield. That race was run at a very slow tempo that didn’t suit. This race will be run at a more solid tempo and that should bring some improvement.
SPIN is racing honestly and his recent form is up to this. He should get an easy run behind the speed from barrier 6 and in-form jockey Mark Zahra is a bonus.
WAGNER has been in consistent form recently, winning two from three this time in. He maps to get a nice run from barrier 3, so has to be included, especially with star jockey Kerrin McEvoy aboard.
RAGGED RASCAL has been disappointing in Melbourne, finishing unplaced at his last two, but on his best Sydney form he would be a winning chance.
SELECTIONS: 4. SUNSET WATCH, 6. RINGERDINGDING, 3. SPIN, 7. WAGNER & 2. RAGGED RASCAL
S1-2 Fillies Classic
MYSTIC JOURNEY is the interesting runner here. She hasn’t raced since 22nd September, when she demolished a good field over 1,400m at Caulfield. On that occasion, she looked outstanding. The query is the gap between runs. She is has been in top form though, winning two from four this preparation.
FUNDAMENTALIST has the recent form to win the race. Her recent run when second at Caulfield behind boom filly AMPHITRITE was full of merit. Barrier 11 from this start is not ideal but she still looks hard to beat.
EL DORADO DREAMING is struggling to recapture her outstanding Sydney autumn form. Significant improvement wouldn’t surprise but needs to overcome a tricky barrier draw.
ANJANA comes through the same race as FUNDAMENTALIST and all her career runs are good. She has won at this track and excels in wet conditions.
KRONE was a little disappointing last start, but she was working home late and all her previous form was strong. Barrier 3 and Mark Zahra to ride is a bonus.
SELECTIONS: 3. MYSTIC JOURNEY, 2. FUNDAMENTALIST, 1. EL DORADO DREAMING, 5. ANJANA & 4. KRONE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 3. MYSTIC JOURNEY
Selections – 2. FUNDAMENTALIST, 1. EL DORADO DREAMING, 5. ANJANA & 4. KRONE
S1-3:
Banker – 8. CLIFF'S EDGE
Selections – 7. SIR JOHN LAVERY, 9. SIEGE OF QUEBEC, 1. IT'S SOMEWHAT & 2. PRIZED ICON
S1-3 Crystal Mile
CLIFF’S EDGE is racing in great form and looks the one to beat. His recent run in the G1 at Caulfield over this distance was outstanding. He worked extremely hard on the speed and stuck on strongly.
Liam Howley-trained SIR JOHN LAVERY creates plenty of interest from the powerful owner Lloyd Williams. At his only Australian start he was most unlucky when severely checked at a crucial point of the race. Has the tactical speed to take advantage of barrier 5.
SIEGE OF QUEBEC has the form profile to be a great chance here. His most recent run at G1 was good, where he finished in front of CLIFF’S EDGE. The stable is in too form, so he must be included.
IT’S SOMEWHAT is a classy visitor from Sydney and has always raced in elite company. Ignore his most recent run on a wet track in Sydney. His previous form commands great respect.
PRIZED ICON should get a lovely run from barrier 2. He seldom wins but can be included in quinella place, tierce and quartet calculations.
SELECTIONS: 8. CLIFF'S EDGE, 7. SIR JOHN LAVERY, 9. SIEGE OF QUEBEC, 1. IT'S SOMEWHAT & 2. PRIZED ICON
S1-4 Moonee Valley Gold Cup
THE TAJ MAHAL is an interesting runner given that backing up a week after finishing fifth in the G1 Caulfield Cup over 2,400m. From barrier 17 he is likely to press hard to cross the field and either lead or sit outside the leader. If he gets to that position easily, then he should be hard to beat. Won at this track two starts back and this distance suits.
VENTURA STORM is also backing up from the G1 Caulfield Cup. His run there was satisfactory and from barrier 9 here, he should settle in a good position. Jockey Mark Zahra is fresh of a big day at Geelong on Wednesday.
Champion jockey Hugh Bowman is booked to ride LIBRAN and he could be a blowout chance. His recent form looks moderate, but he worked well here on Tuesday and will get a good run from the draw.
EGG TART is a classy mare drawn to get all the favours and has Kerrin McEvoy to ride. Must be considered in a race of many chances.
TRAP FOR FOOLS is the likely leader. Recent form includes a last start fifth behind WINX.
SELECTIONS: 6. THE TAJ MAHAL, 14. VENTURA STORM, 10. LIBRAN, 3. EGG TART & 9. TRAP FOR FOOLS
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 6. THE TAJ MAHAL
Selections – 14. VENTURA STORM, 10. LIBRAN, 3. EGG TART & 9. TRAP FOR FOOLS
S1-5:
Banker – 6. WINX
Selections – 2. HUMIDOR, 1. BENBATL, 4. AVILIUS & 5. D'ARGENTO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. THE TAJ MAHAL, 14. VENTURA STORM & 10. LIBRAN
S1-5: Multiple – 6. WINX, 2. HUMIDOR & 1. BENBATL
S1-6: Multiple –1. ARAMAYO, 13. VERRY ELLEEGANT & 5. SAVOIE
S1-5 Cox Plate
WINX is arguably the best racehorse in the world. She is attempting to win this race for the fourth successive time, which will be a record. She has simply demoralized all opposition for the past three years because she handles all types of tracks and can sustain and absorb all types of pressure – she may get challenged at some point of this race, but she is unlikely to get beaten.
HUMIDOR might present some sort of danger if there is one. He got close last year, and the way this renewal is shaping, there appears to be more mid-race pressure especially from European visitor BENBATL. If that’s the case then HUMIDOR has the ability to finish off strongly. Blinkers back on is a significant gear change.
BENBATL must be respected because he is a G1 winner in Europe and impressed winning at Caulfield at top level on 13th October. On that occasion he sustained a strong run and defeated the highly regarded BLAIR HOUSE over 2,000m.
AVILIUS is an exciting Godolphin galloper being aimed at the G1 Melbourne Cup. He is an athletic type with good acceleration, so expect him to be running on strongly.
D'ARGENTO won the G1 Rosehill Guineas earlier this year and hasn't been far away from the top horses at G1 level this time in.
SELECTIONS: 6. WINX, 2. HUMIDOR, 1. BENBATL, 4. AVILIUS & 5. D'ARGENTO
S1-6 Moonee Valley Vase
ARAMAYO profiles strongly for this race. His recent form in Group races in Sydney is strong. Barrier 14 is not ideal, but if it is a wet track then being wide on the track may be the best place to be. The one to beat.
VERRY ELLEEGANT is a classy filly and is using this race as a lead up to the Oaks. She has been most impressive in her two Australian starts and looks a star on the rise. It is worth noting that a filly won this race last year.
SAVOIE is an emerging galloper and like to race forward. All his recent runs are good and he has been looking super in the parade ring. Definite chance.
DEALMAKER is a promising type and looks a genuine improver. Has placed in two from three runs this preparation, but should appreciate getting away from the heavy tracks in Sydney. Kerrin McEvoy to ride is a bonus.
MICKEY BLUE EYES is an outstanding type, and he also should appreciate getting back to Melbourne. Barrier 16 is probably not ideal, but his form is solid and was working home strongly last start.
SELECTIONS: 1. ARAMAYO, 13. VERRY ELLEEGANT, 5. SAVOIE, 4. DEALMAKER & 3. MICKEY BLUE EYES
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