 Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S2-1 Tenno Sho Autumn
This is very exciting renewal of the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, as two Derby winners from different generations run against each other, in addition to winners of the G1 Osaka Hai, the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, the G1 Kikuka Sho, and the G1 Dubai Turf are included in the field.
Although I respect all those title holders, the most attractive runner in the field of Tenno Sho Autumn for me is SUNGRAZER, rising star who recently steps up from “mile division” to “mile and quarter division”. Oiwake Farm bought WITCHFUL THINKING, winner of the G2 and G3 stakes, who was in foal to DEPUTY MINISTER, for USD900,000 at Keeneland November Sale in 2000, and WITCHFUL THINKING delivered filly foal on following spring, who is MANTIS HUNT, dam of SUNGRAZER. While MANTIS HUNT was unsuccessful at racetracks, she was prolific as a broodmare and foaled nine foals in ten seasons before she died in 2015 when she was 14. SUNGRAZER is her eighth foal and only foal by DEEP IMPACT out of MANTIS HUNT.
Two years ago, SUNGRAZER finished third in the G2 Daily Hai Nisai Stakes over 1,600m and was expected to be a Classic contender. However, he was disappointing fifth in the G2 Hopeful Stakes over 2,000m next start. Since he was too keen in early stage and did not stay, Hidekazu Asami who trains SUNGRAZER judged that the best trip for the colt by DEEP IMPACT is seven to eight furlongs.
It was proved that Asami was right. SUNGRAZER collected his first Graded Stakes in October 2017, when he won the G2 Swan Stakes over 1,400m at Kyoto, and he finished third in the G1 Mile Championship subsequently. Three months ago, Asami decides to extend the trip, since he has got the impression that SUNGRAZER, who is now 4YO, has matured physically and mentally. SUNGRAZER was in the field of the G2 Sapporo Kinen over 2,000m on 19th August and collected his second Graded Stakes, beating MAKAHIKI, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2016. It was proved again that Asami was right! I am pretty sure that he is competitive against top class horses at mile and quarter division and SUNGRAZER is my first choice.
The horse to beat for SUNGRAZER is SUAVE RICHARD, winner of the G1 Osaka Hai over 2,000m in April. Tokyo is his favourite track, where he started five times, won two of them, finished second twice and third once. Though SUAVE RICHARD was beaten in the G1 Tokyo Yushun by REY DE ORO in May 2017, the colt by HEART’S CRY has improved significantly and is much better horse now. SUAVE RICHARD is my second choice.
MAKAHIKI, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2016, lost his form after returning from France, where he finished fourteenth in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and he was winless through five starts last year when he was 4YO. Yasuo Tomomichi, who trains MAKAHIKI, took nine months to regroup and he came back at Sapporo on 19th August, when he finished second to SUNGRAZER in the G2 Sapporo Kinen. It was not bad effort, and I have the feeling that the Derby winner has mostly regained his true form. MAKAHIKI is my third choice.
KISEKI, winner of the G1 Kikuka Sho in 2017 and finished third in the G2 Mainichi Okan on 7th October at Tokyo is my fourth choice.
REY DE ORO, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun in 2017, has both of positive factor and negative factor. He won the G2 All Comers on 23rd September easily and it looked he was kept in top form. On the other hand, the workout at Miho Training Center on 18th October was suspended due to having “bad steps”. He has been ridden every day since then, and should be fine, but I feel a little uncertain about his condition and he is no more than my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 9. SUNGRAZER, 5. SUAVE RICHARD, 6. MAKAHIKI, 10. KISEKI & 4. REY DE ORO
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